How Blue Zone GOP Could Veto Conservative Candidates

Cook Political Report ^ | 11/4/15 | David Wasserman

[JediJones]

I assume he means the fact that the early voting primary states are mostly red and do proportional delegates, while the later voting states are mostly blue and are winner-take-all. I pointed this out a while ago. Giving extra weight to blue states was all part of the RNC’s plan to help the moderate candidate win this time with less headwind than Romney faced. It still gives Jebio a big advantage. If Trump is just polling even with Jebio midway through the primary, he will lose due to the blue state advantage built in.

[JediJones]

Cruz has explained the main things the big GOP donors ask for is to vote pro-abortion, pro-gay-marriage and pro-amnesty. They have a pair and they’re very willing to fight...fight conservatives, that is. No doubt the GOP donors would fear a true socialist like Sanders but they will gladly support Hillary over a conservative.

[JediJones]

That’s one reason Trump maybe shouldn’t burn every bridge behind them. If Carson ends up with delegates, he might have been persuadable to give them to Trump, but after the way Trump attacked him, he’d surely give them to Jebio.

[datura]

The donor issue is key. The RNC structured the entire game based upon donors (falsely assuming Cruz wouldn’t have any) and then Trump entered the race, leading in nearly every state - and he doesn’t need donors.

I bet there are plenty of RNC higher ups wishing they had not written the rules that they did, as those “winner take all” states will all go to Trump.

Check mate, RNC. Now go to hell.

[Dr. Sivana]

Unfortunately, the analysis is spot-on as to why we wound up with losers like Romney and McCain in the last two Presidential election cycles, and why we may be stuck with Rubio or Jeb this time around in spite of their low poll numbers. I don't like it any more than you do, but the delegate math means that we have an uphill battle in what's basically a rigged game.

I'm a Cruz supporter, but the analyst hasn't yet figured out that Trump, as an unconventional candidate, CLEANS UP in Blue States. Look at the polling. NY, MA, CT, RI, Trump is leading LARGE. He can fade and still win big, of the votes he loses, they are NOT going to John Ellis Bush or Carly Fiorina. Some will go to Rubio or Cruz, and mostly Cruz. A side effect of the Democrats completely obliterating the Republicans in Massachusetts and Connecticut is that the number of Weickercrat/Weldcrats have diminished. If you are in a state like Massachusetts and you are a Republican, it is because you HATE everything the Democrats stand for. Yes, the folks who have been there forever may still be Weicker/Weld/Romney types, but the bulk of the voters in the primary are not those people.

Trump energizes them because he speaks to a northeasterner LIKE a northeasterner, and because he cannot be shamed out of saying what he has to say. And people reckon he cannot be bought.

A LOT of independents and 25% of blacks support Trump. That completely messes up ALL of the models that northeastern analysts on all sides have. And dismissing Trump (Carson is less of a factor in the northeast) because the election hasn't unfolded that way in the past is FOLLY. The party rules are different. The PAC rules are different. The country's mood is different. A lot of Romney voters who said this is the LAST time actually meant it, come Hillary or high water. We have a sample size of elections with no incumbent running that you can count on your hands. The reliance on "History" when that history is barely 40 years with an event once wvery four years minus incumbents means that the "past performance may not equal future results".

We've not had a Trump running before. As Rush says, this is uncharted territory. We are down to a field of four (though I still want to drive a stake through #5, John Ellis Bush's heart). Only one of the four is Establishment.

Look what happened to the Republican establishment in states like Texas. The good guys (Abbot over Dewhurst) won, and the results will be long lasting. We cannot all be Texas, but the Old Guard is moving out, and they are running out of resources. Cruz has more cash on hand than John Ellis Bush, who must rely on PACs who will pay triple what Rubio pays for ad time.

I can also tell you that Cruz has a first class field operation, and I am proud to be an unpaid part of it.

[GeronL]

Trump is NOT conservative and moderates are not pragmatic

[ek_hornbeck]

I can't comment on your memory, but reading comprehension obviously isn't your strong point. This article is about nominations in the primaries, not the general election.

[TomGuy]

You missed my point entirely. Sorry that it was over your head.