[DoughtyOne]

I'd like to talk about this because there are several ways to go.  For that reason I'm posting your comments in gold and mine in green.

That would be awesome, but it’s not going to happen that way.  It may or it may not.  I'm not convinced which way it's going to go right now.

Trump may very well be POTUS, but he will be opposed from all sides.

I am not convinced this is true.  If he does become president there are perks to being on the inside.  The party can actually benefit from it.  They may trash talk Trump, but if he is elected, he may get a lot more support than you think.

He can also go around Congress directly to the people.  If he does this, the party will have little choice but to play ball.  Otherwise the scenario I laid out becomes that much more likely to happen.  People are sick and tired of the run around they have been getting from Washington, D. C.  They are going to be in Trump's corner.  If he gets elected, and especially if he wins big, the Republican party has a massive problem on it's hands if it opposes him.

Here's my prediction for the 2016 general election results: LINK (PDF)  Don't get put off by it.  Read it and then think about what I say from here on down.

If my prediction comes to pass, the Republican party will have very little choice but to ride out the Trumps presidency.

If my prediction does not come to pass, the Republican party will essentially die.  Very few people are going to vote for Jeb Bush.  They will be so fed up they will vote for Trump 3rd party, write him in, or not vote for the presidential slot.

He will have a very difficult Presidency as would Ted Cruz. Sadly, they will be able to accomplish very little.

I see the two men differently.  I know this will irritate the Cruz supporters, but I'm not saying this to rile them up.  These are two different men.  Trump is able to use bombast, and Cruz is able to argue a good case.  IMO, we need a charismatic person here.  I don't see Cruz as that man.  His followers are certain he is.  We simply disagree on that point.

On the one hand they want to criticize Trump for being charismatic/bombastic, but yet they also want to claim Cruz is as good as Trump across the board.  His attempts to be charismatic fall flat with me.  For them he accomplishes his goal.  With me he doesn't.  I know that he doesn't have to worry about pulling me along.  He has to pull along people cross demographic lines.  That's a big problem > IMO.

If he can't sell me on things I believe in, a guy that shares a great deal of his beliefs, where does that leave him outside his immediate democraphic?  I think it leaves him wanting.  We know that Trump pulls acrosss demographics.

I touched on this because I wanted to address your concept in the gold there.

Both could have a difficult presidency, but IMO Trump has a tool that Ted doesn't.  Trump connects to the people.  They may see him as crazy uncle Harry, but they do see him as family.  They think he is shooting straight with them, and they bond with him because of it.  They don't see Ted in this light.  Further, they see Ted as a Conservative, and they see Trump as somewhat of a middle-roader.  Trump is not type-cast in the negative.  (Conservative)  This is an important factor, and I think it's why he is pulling across demographics.  They see him as an outsider that shoots straight.

What does this mean to us?  It means that we are fortunate enough to have a man that the people trust, identify with, and are not repelled from due to a "stigma" related to Conservatism.  Further, we are lucky enough this man is hawking the Reagan platform.  He actually wants a wall on our border, and for illegal aliens inside the U. S. to become a thing of the past.  Unlike Cruz, he has the gravitas to pull it off, without the negatives Cruz would bring to the equasion.

I have been tweaking Cruz supporters in recent days, but this is not an attempt to insult.  I have addressed real dynamics as I see them.  I wanted to address it, because that one sentence above seemed to kind of lump them together into a similiar predicament.  Well yes and no, they could win up in that situaiton, but their skill sets are different and I think Trump would fair better than Cruz and wanted to explain why.   

There is a sizable chunk of the electorate that is pissed off that is fueling the Trump surge that wants the establishment out. But as whole, we are probably only 25%, maybe 30% of the total electorate. The vast majority is just fine with the establishment in control.

If we're talking hard leftists, sure.  There's no doubt they hate Trump for what he is advocating, and want nothing to do with him.  There is a different Leftist out there that doesn't buy into that mindset at all.  I am reviewing comments on the internet and I am sensing a lot of Democrats who are as fed up with their party as we are the Republican party.  They want change as much as we do.  Trump is going to pull the majority of Republicans, a larger than normal share of crossover Democrats, a larger than normal segment of Blacks, Hispanics, and women.  If Trump attracts more Republicans than the other candidates do, you're looking at more than 30% in our party.  When you factor in Democrats, Independents, Blacks, Hispanics, and Women, you're getting in to some pretty rarified territory there.  

I don't think your 25-30% number is accurate.  Hillary will be the Democrat candidate, and Trump will tie her in knots.  Democrats will see her for what she is by then.  Trump will attract a lot of people outside our normal target group.

Trump could very easily turn into a man that would run the election on the Democrats in a way we've only seen a couple of times in our lives..

It’s going to be tough in 2016. I think Hillary has a lock on 48% of the vote already and 266 electoral votes. It will boil down to 3 states. Trump, or any Republican, will have to win all the Romney states and VA, FL and OH to pull it off, and those three states get bluer each election.

I'm not buying into this theory.  I don't want to be too critical of your thoughts, becasue under a Bush, McCain, Romney, Bush, Rubio, Christy style of campaining, this is exactly what you would get.  Trump is not these people.  This is not what you get when he campaigns.  He will rip into Hillary in ways we have only dreamed of up until now.  Every sordid thing she has been involved in, will become relevent.  He'll throw everything at her.  And when he's done, he'll talk about evil people and how they get away with things we can't.  "Is that the kind of president you want?"  He's going to stomp her.  This will be no repeat of Bush, Dole, Bush, McCain, and Romney.  Trump is in it to win it.  

I’m not trying to be a downer. I’m just not going be caught up and believe a huge landslide will take place.

I can undertstand your reluctance to be caught up in that, because we have been caught up in desiring victory many times, without a man like Trump in charge.  This time we have a man like Trump in charge.  He's a once in a generation individual, as it relates to the presidency.  Reagan had it.  Trump has it.  He is bigger than the party he is a member of.  Folks can rebel against that suggestion, but it is true.  It's why they are terrified of him.

The demographics are heavily in the Democrats favor, especially in the cities and suburbs.

Okay, look, I understand where you are coming from, but think of it this way.  Republicans are going to vote for him.  He draws more independents and more people from every demographic.   When those Black pastors met with Trump a week or so ago, what was your take-away?  Those are inner city pastors.  They didn't all stand up and salute Trump, but they did come out of that meeting feeling like they accomplished something.  Trump talked to them about jobs.  He was respectful, listened, and promised to do everything he could to help their church members become productive.  Some of those pastors were on fire for Trump.  You are addressing real factors accurately for other elections, but this election is truly different.  Nothing is the same.  This is why Trump has everyone scared.  Everyone!  He doesn't have to get 75% of Blacks to win.  If he takes the normal 5% and pushes it up to 25%, guess what, it's over.

the RNC
the GOPe
the DNC
the Television MSM
the Print media MSM
the Leftist radio MSM
the Talking heads
the Pundits
the Blog sites
the Conservative Blog sites (formerly, now dead set against Trump, even though he is advocated for what we said we wanted for the last 20 years)
the anti-Trump folks here on FR

Why are these people afraid?  They are, because they know Trump will be a very effective leader.  He is pushing Conservatism, and if he does pull it off, it's going to shake up the very foundations of every political thing in this nation.

More Hispanic voters, more Asian voters, more younger socialistic voters. Add that up with a more conservative older generation that is passing away and you have your Democrat majority.

A larger than normal portion of every demographic is going toward Trump.  The youth went for Obama.  Many now are thinking Trump is in vogue.  The older U. S. Citizens see value in Trump.  Trump is not going to pull less than Romney did in any demographic.  NOT one.  Look at the jobs outlook today.  Do you think the Democrats are going to win that argument with Trump in front of U. S. Citizens?  They won't.

Not saying Trump, or any Republican, can’t win. Just saying it will be very, very difficult.

I appreciate your thinking, because this is what you have been led to believe.  You have been led to think that Liberalism has gobbled up all demographics.  It hasn't.  We simply HAVE NOT had a top level salesman hawking Conservatism since Reagan.

Let me ask you a simple question.  If an automobile company had the best car by far, more bells and whistles, more styling, better mileage, and the lowest price by $10,000 over every other competitor, how many would the dealers sell if they didn't let the public know it was available?

Conservatism is the best vehicle by far
Conservatism has more bells and whistles
Conservatism is styled to be observant of the U. S. Constitution.
Conservatism gets more bang for the buck
Conservatism costs the nation a lot less than Liberalism

Okay, how many buyers will we have if it is not hawked loudly in the public arena?

That right there is the key to why we don't win.  We have had Bush, Dole, Bush, McCain, and Romney... and which of these men praised the advantages of the sleakly styled, machine that it is?

None of them.

Gosh, I just don't know why Liberalism is winning...  /s

Trump is on the move.  It's a new day in this nation.  Finally!

He is going to take many states that haven't been won in 20 plus years.

He made a choice and decided to sell our father's Conservatism.  People are lining up to buy it.  It's a beauty.

[Amntn]

Excellent post as usual. I agree with everything you said.

I would add, however, that one other liability for Cruz is his naivete.

McConnell was able to lie to him and trick him into a vote, according to what he himself said. He even said his staff tied to tell him what McConnell was doing and he either fell for it anyway or he is being dishonest with us.

[Theodore R.]

Democrats will see her for what she is by then.

A dream; Demos will remain steadfast for HRC and the left as they have since at least 1932, no matter what "evidence" surfaces.