Are you an employee of NYT?
Posted on 12/31/2015 1:47:01 AM PST by springwater13
Donald Trump holds a dominant position in national polls in no small part because he is extremely strong among people on the periphery of the Republican coalition.
He is strongest among Republicans who are less affluent, less educated and less likely to turn out to vote. His very best voters are self-identified Republicans who nonetheless are registered as Democrats. It's a coalition that's concentrated in the South, Appalachia and the industrial North, according to data provided to The Upshot by Civis Analytics, a Democratic data firm.
Mr. Trump's huge advantage among these groups poses a challenge for his campaign, because it may not have the turnout operation necessary to mobilize irregular voters.
Mr. Trump appears to hold his greatest strength among people like these - registered Democrats who identify as Republican leaners - with 43 percent of their support, according to the Civis data. Similarly, many of Mr. Trump’s best states are those with a long tradition of Democrats who vote Republican in presidential elections, like West Virginia.
Mr. Trump's strength among traditionally Democratic voters could pose some problems for his campaign. Many states bar voters registered with the other party from participating in partisan primaries. Other states go further, not allowing unaffiliated voters to vote in a primary; in the G.O.P. race, for example, that would mean restricting the electorate to those registered as Republicans - one of Mr. Trump’s weakest groups. This group of states includes many favorable to Mr. Trump, like Florida, Pennsylvania and New York.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
no, each party in NY has closed primaries.
Which is why I am strongly considering re registering as a Republican again for the first time in many years. And also talking to other 3rd party members trying to urge them to do the same.
Yes, like most New Yorkers they are inexplicably dems. I’ll look into the Ny voting laws. But at least they won’t be voting for Hillary (if Trump is the Repub). A friend here in Florida in my neighborhood who is dem is switching her registration to Rep to vote for Trump.
I think the DNC knows they’re in deep trouble with blue collar white voters. These voters are the Reagan Democrats. They’re not necessarily conservative on a good many issues but they’re not happy with the extreme leftward tilt of the Democratic Party. The media happily reports on the dissension in the GOP, but they’re purposely ignoring the growing storm in the Democratic Party between these voters and the various wings of the far left apparatus that controls that party!
This is total garbage. I and my whole family on both sides who are 95% college grads are voting Trump and all my close friends who are 100% college grads are voting Trump. All of us are registered republicans and active voters.
I think that a Trump candidacy could have some coattails. At some point, some Republican House or Senate candidate is going to ask themselves, "I wonder if appearing at a Trump rally with 10,000 people and having him urge them to support me, will help my chances?"
Yes, Trump is really a populist with a side-order of conservatism. I can see that pulling in a majority easily. Just hope he governs the same way he is promising in the campaign.
“None the less, it shows that Trump can get the independents and traditional Democrats get elected. I can’t see those people going for Cruz or Rubio.”
Correct on all accounts, especially about Cruz for whom the whole of the corrupt media would continuously and loudly paint as an uber-conservative who’s probably an out-an-out fascist if you think hard enough.
Unfortunately, Cruz, unlike Trump, doesn’t have the charisma, bluster, and *uck-ya’ll-and-the-horse-you-road-in-on mentality to counter such a concerted media onslaught.
Cruz has already demonstrated the GOP loser “high-road” mentality when he refused to point out Hillary’s feet of clay problem with Bill in response to her self-awarded championship mantle for “protecting” “abused” women.
We had straight ticket voting in IL until it was abolished by the lame duck GOP legislature in late 1996, after the dems had used it one last time to take back the lower House by a slim margin.
“We don’t have a closed primary but you can’t split a primary ticket and vote GOP in one race and democrat in the others. “
Did MI ever have that? Cali and WA did, the Supreme Court struck it down in 2000. Now they’ve both gotten around the ruling by going to a “top-two” primary.
Trump is not a conservative. He’s not a Republican. He’s a big government populist - which explains why his biggest supporters are libtards, and people who can’t spell “conservatism.”
And the majority of his support concentrated in states that the GOP won’t win, even if every single Trumpie tears themselves away from reality TV, fires up the mobility scooter, and goes to the polls? That sounds like a GREAT strategy! You supporters are all Rove-level geniuses!
And Pennsylvania!
Yes. Yes. Yes. Meant to include that as well.
Trump has defined this campaign in a way no other candidate could. He has set the groundwork for what the issues will be. I don’t know how this will play out, but I am thankful he decided to run. FYI, I am a Cruz supporter. You on the other hand, are still upset about Walker dropping out. So who’s your man now? Rubio or Bush?? You want to talk about conservatism. Not only do you support open borders big business Walker but also give away the store and let’s all get along Ryan. Other then gender and the letter after their name, there is no difference between Ryan and Pelosi. Why bother having a two party system if they are all the same. Communist or communist lite. No thanks!
The classic definition of the Reagan Democrat.
That guy has a very punchable face.
Just sayin’.
The mouse over congressional district thing is interesting, but it would be easier to use as a table. I can adapt using some of the patented BigEd magic and get some algorithms that can give us a picture in the unpolled states.
Very similar to Reagan Democrats, yes.
The type the NYT is describing is Kim Davis: Conservate, Democrat, but also completely fed up with being treated like subhuman garbage by the Progressive political elites and Social Justice Warriors.
S-a-a-a-a-a-a-y, whatever happened to Scott Walker's campaign?
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