Posted on 01/08/2016 5:00:25 PM PST by springwater13
Yes you do. I guess what I meant to say, after Iowa, he will run the tables.
Unfortunately, for Cruz, Iowa will his first and last stand.
>> But I would turn right around and bet Trump wins NH, SC and FL.
Not SC. That’s Jeb’s to lose. I read it today on the interwebz so it must be so. Jeb’s gonna woo all of Linda Graham’s voter. Jeb can fix it!
This Trump supporter says Cruz wins Iowa in a walk.
Trump is breaking many assumptions about Presidential politics and the primaries.
If he wins Iowa, it will be because he brings a lot of people to the caucii who would not otherwise have gone.
Much ado is being made about the historically low turnouts at this event and how the much ballyhooed "evangelical vote" will propel Cruz to a solid victory, giving the cocky Trump his comeuppance.
In other words, people think that the turnout will be similar to 2012 where most Republicans stayed home to watch television, leaving it up to those "evangelicals" to settle things.
Well here are some little known facts about the 2012 Iowa caucus: Santorum "won" Iowa with less than 30,000 total votes statewide and his margin of victory (over Mitt Romney) was only 38 votes. Ron Paul was in third place with 26,000 votes, just 3,000 votes less than both Santorum and Romney. So basically Iowa was a three-way tie.
Also, despite the fact that Santorum "won" Iowa, he actually ended up with zero delegates for the Republican convention that summer. Those delegates were split up and awarded to Ron Paul and Mitt Romney.
You have it about right!
“The MEDIA have set the bar so high in recent days that anything less than a smashing victory in Iowa will be a crushing and bitter disappointment... “
Our stupider Cruz supporters haven’t grasped what’s been going on.
BTW Iowa changed it’s rules so delegates are bound to cast their first vote for whomever won them in the caucus.
http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2015/10/2016-republican-delegate-allocation-iowa.html
(Great site for ALL the primary mechanics.)
No, the early primaries have to be looked at as a group.
But it would be a very good sign for him. Evangelicals are not his native demographic.
Even if he gets eked out by Cruz in Iowa, Trump still pretty much every where else runs the table if not all.
Yeah, Iowa changed the rules since Santorum won the state in 2012, but he did not win a single Iowa delegate. Total zip.
If Trump wins Iowa, it’s all over with. Trump will be the nominee. I don’t think that will happen tho. I think Cruz wins Iowa somewhat handily. But Cruz has his work cut out for him later.
If those attending Trump’s rallies, can stand in line for hours, sometimes in very cold weather, and then stand and wait inside for more hours, I think that they can go and vote in a primary, and even show up at a caucus.
I think Trump will win Iowa with about 38 percent of the vote.
Not SC. That’s Jebs to lose. I read it today on the interwebz so it must be so. Jebs gonna woo all of Linda Grahams voter. Jeb can fix it!
He doesn’t have to win...a close second is just as good!!!
Huh!!!
IT never has before!!!
?
Logic and rational thought are not the strong suits of Trumpistas. I have seen precisely that “logic” being expatiated upon on FR: if Trump wins Iowa, yeah, he has the nomination locked up, but if he loses, well Iowa doesn’t really matter very much. Now we add a further iteration to that (il)logic: if he doesn’t win it’s ok so long as he doesn’t lose by too much.
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