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How did Iowa caucus polls get GOP vote so wrong?
New York Daily News ^ | February 2, 2016 | Dan Good, Adam Edelman

Posted on 02/02/2016 10:23:32 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife

Iowa pollsters' losses were Ted Cruz's gain Monday night, as even the most storied surveys of the Hawkeye State's electorate missed the Texas senator's surging momentum.

Cruz cruised to victory in the early-voting state's caucuses, easily beating bombastic billionaire Donald Trump 27.6% to 24.3%, with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio finishing a close third, with 23.1%.

But polls, even ones released just hours before voters headed to caucus-locations, showed Trump in the solid lead: A Quinnipiac University poll out Monday afternoon had Trump beating Cruz 31% to 24%, while a Des Moines Register / Bloomberg Politics survey out the day before had the outspoken mogul up 28% to 23%.

How did they get it so wrong?

(Excerpt) Read more at nydailynews.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: caucus; cruz; gopprimary; iowa
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

:: But polls,...A Quinnipiac University poll...out Monday afternoon had Trump beating Cruz 31% to 24%...while...Bloomberg Politics Survey out the day before had the outspoken mogul up 28% to 23% ::

That would be Quinnipiac University in Quinnipiac ^IOWA^, right and Bloomberg is a “surveyor” in Des Moines, right?

All politics is LOCAL!


21 posted on 02/02/2016 10:32:05 AM PST by Cletus.D.Yokel (Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Alterations: The acronym defines the science.)
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To: Blood of Tyrants

And do you remember, it was MONTHS before the elites finally acknowledged Santorum as the Iowa winner. They immediately declared Romney the winner!


22 posted on 02/02/2016 10:32:23 AM PST by erkelly
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
Polls are never wrong! I saw many articles about it.

The media was covering for their favorite candidate.

23 posted on 02/02/2016 10:33:00 AM PST by nickcarraway
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To: Blood of Tyrants

And Dole won in 88.....................IIRC..................


24 posted on 02/02/2016 10:33:11 AM PST by Red Badger (READ MY LIPS: NO MORE BUSHES!...............)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

I wonder how the Donald is going to react to the NY Daily News front pages shown in the original article?

here is a link to one of them:
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/new-york-daily-news-front-pages-presidential-election-gallery-1.2512941


25 posted on 02/02/2016 10:33:30 AM PST by fifedom
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To: Yo-Yo

Can’t these people make up their own minds? I would totally dislike my neighbors telling me who I should vote for.


26 posted on 02/02/2016 10:33:46 AM PST by hsmomx3 (GO STEELERS!!!!!!)
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To: so_real

The GOPe would be just as happy with Rubio and his 3rd place finish was too close.


27 posted on 02/02/2016 10:33:52 AM PST by Blood of Tyrants (Liberals are the Taliban of America, trying to tear down any symbol that they don't like.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
How did they get it so wrong?

I have heard this question about pollsters in recent elections including those for the English, Israelis.

The pollsters are asking agenda driven questions, not simple binary questions.

No one asks "Will you vote for Trump tomorrow".

Instead they convolute the question like this:

"If you plan on voting tomorrow and considering that a bombastic billionaire, a candidate born in Canada with a Cuban father, or another candidate from hixville Texas also of Cuban heritage, are Republican candidates, who would you vote for the hildabeast or do you feel the berne?"

28 posted on 02/02/2016 10:34:04 AM PST by pfflier
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To: erkelly

No, I don’t. How long was it?


29 posted on 02/02/2016 10:34:46 AM PST by Blood of Tyrants (Liberals are the Taliban of America, trying to tear down any symbol that they don't like.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
AT the end of December, Cruz had a 10 point lead over Rubio and Trump. Trump, through the month of January, closed that gap which also closed the gap between Rubio and Cruz.

Polls showing Trump leading were, IMO, wishful thinking. Without significant time nor organization in the state, Trump shouldn't have been anywhere close to Cruz and others in this state.

But Iowa is now over and Cruz NOW must deal with a 22 point deficit in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Good luck with that one.

30 posted on 02/02/2016 10:35:29 AM PST by Solson (Trump plays to win. Deal with it.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

“How did they get it so wrong?”

They couldn’t predict that Cruz was going to lie about Carson and steal his votes.


31 posted on 02/02/2016 10:35:54 AM PST by MagnoliaB (You can't always get what you want but if you try sometime you might find, you get what you need.)
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To: sickoflibs

Yup. David Stone or whatever his name is left the Trump campaign very early on saying that Trump won’t conduct internal polling.

A campaign needs honest internal polling to give them an idea how they’re actually doing with who on what issues. Its how a campaign knows how and where to allocate resources for the greatest effect.


32 posted on 02/02/2016 10:36:06 AM PST by cripplecreek (Pride goes before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall.)
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To: Blood of Tyrants

I absolutely think you are correct about that.


33 posted on 02/02/2016 10:36:19 AM PST by so_real ( "The Congress of the United States recommends and approves the Holy Bible for use in all schools.")
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To: Yo-Yo

yo-yo how appropriate... most people get rid of those after Jr. High.


34 posted on 02/02/2016 10:38:59 AM PST by theoldmarine (Saved by grace throu gh Faith)
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To: over3Owithabrain

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trump-loss-could-mean-trouble-ahead/article/2582165

“....................Most of the people at the Trump event had attended caucuses earlier in the evening. At those caucuses, the presiding officer asked whether there was a representative from each campaign present to speak, and, if not, whether anyone attending would like to speak on a particular candidate’s behalf. At the caucus I attended, in Pleasant Hill, a suburb just east of Des Moines, there was no one to speak for Trump — no representative of the campaign — and no voter willing to stand up and speak on his behalf. (The precinct ended in a Cruz landslide: 110 votes for the Texas senator, versus 36 for Trump and 34 for Rubio.)

At the Sheraton, some Trump supporters had similar stories.

“We were at a caucus and Trump didn’t even have anyone there to speak for him,” one man told me.

“That’s insane,” added a man nearby.


35 posted on 02/02/2016 10:39:27 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: sickoflibs

“Donald Trump : ‘It will be wonderful. It will be glorious., You will be amazed, Just wait’”

Well, at least it was wonderful and glorious last night!


36 posted on 02/02/2016 10:40:36 AM PST by gbscott1954 (Why not a real Conservative?)
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To: fifedom

Oh my!

=0


37 posted on 02/02/2016 10:41:17 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Everything about Iowa’s role in the presidential election process is absurd. Their Caucus system is a joke. There are problems and inconsistencies in their caucus system every Presidential election year. It is a state with a comical election system which includes flipping a coin to decide a tie ( Clinton won 6 coin flips in a row this year) and where the overwhelming majority of voters can’t be bothered to make it to their state’s contest. It is first because there is a state law mandating it has to be. WTH is up with that? Are they going to go stompy foot and decide not to vote at all if another saner state goes first (that would be fine with me)!


38 posted on 02/02/2016 10:41:30 AM PST by Red_Devil 232 ((VietVet - USMC All Ready On The Right? All Ready On The Left? All Ready On The Firing Line!))
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To: pfflier

So true.


39 posted on 02/02/2016 10:42:11 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: cripplecreek
RE:”Yup. David Stone or whatever his name is left the Trump campaign very early on saying that Trump won't conduct internal polling.”

The only poll he cares about is how many in the MSM call him for interviews.

40 posted on 02/02/2016 10:42:16 AM PST by sickoflibs (Donald Trump : 'It will be wonderful. It will be glorious., You will be amazed, Just wait')
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