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How did Iowa caucus polls get GOP vote so wrong?
New York Daily News ^ | February 2, 2016 | Dan Good, Adam Edelman

Posted on 02/02/2016 10:23:32 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife

Iowa pollsters' losses were Ted Cruz's gain Monday night, as even the most storied surveys of the Hawkeye State's electorate missed the Texas senator's surging momentum.

Cruz cruised to victory in the early-voting state's caucuses, easily beating bombastic billionaire Donald Trump 27.6% to 24.3%, with Florida Sen. Marco Rubio finishing a close third, with 23.1%.

But polls, even ones released just hours before voters headed to caucus-locations, showed Trump in the solid lead: A Quinnipiac University poll out Monday afternoon had Trump beating Cruz 31% to 24%, while a Des Moines Register / Bloomberg Politics survey out the day before had the outspoken mogul up 28% to 23%.

How did they get it so wrong?

(Excerpt) Read more at nydailynews.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: caucus; cruz; gopprimary; iowa
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To: Yo-Yo
people didn't want to be seen standing in the Trump corner with the rest of the mouth breathers.

Let me guess. You're a Cruz supporter.

81 posted on 02/02/2016 12:35:25 PM PST by M. Thatcher
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

That is of a piece with the Trump captain who complained Thursday that the campaign hadn’t give her her phone list of voters to call for the caucus (Monday night.) It shows the utterly poor organization of the Trump campaign.


82 posted on 02/02/2016 12:37:59 PM PST by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Past Iowa winners:

1980 GHWB over Reagan
1984 Reagan unopposed
1988 Dole over GHWB
1992 GHWB unopposed
1996 Dole (26%) over Buchannan (23%)
2000 George Bush
2004 Bush unopposed
2008 Huckabee
2012 Santorum
2016 Cruz


83 posted on 02/02/2016 12:40:59 PM PST by Will88
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To: vpintheak

Several of the polls polled “likely caucus goers”, but that model is based on who has gone to caucuses before.

The prior record for a Republican caucus in Iowa was around 122,000 votes. They had around 170,000 this time. So that blew up all the models.

Now, next time they’ll plan for a big turnout like this and if they get a more typical turnout, that will blow up the model again.


84 posted on 02/02/2016 12:42:19 PM PST by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: xzins
I think they underestimated Cruz’s ability to turn out new voters.

And perhaps overestimated Trump's.

There could also be a bit of "confirmation bias" in the poll numbers -- pollsters hearing what they expected to hear, and reporting it.

85 posted on 02/02/2016 12:44:14 PM PST by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: M. Thatcher

Let me guess. You never read tag lines.


86 posted on 02/02/2016 12:44:47 PM PST by Yo-Yo (Is the /sarc tag really necessary?)
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To: lone star annie

No, vice versa.


87 posted on 02/02/2016 12:44:50 PM PST by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: Will88

As John Sununu said

Iowa picks Corn
NH picks presidents

not sure if it’s true, but it’s a fun quote


88 posted on 02/02/2016 12:45:18 PM PST by nascarnation
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Trump on polls from Business Insider

“....I believe in polls. How many elections do you see where the polls were wrong? Not that many. OK. You see them, but not that many. If I were doing poorly, if I saw myself going down, if you would stop calling me ‘cause you no longer have any interest in Trump because ‘he has no chance,’ I’d go back to my business. I have no problem with that......”

It is a funny read in light of last night

http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-why-hed-drop-out-of-race-for-president-2015-10


89 posted on 02/02/2016 12:46:08 PM PST by Protect the Bill of Rights
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To: Rome2000
Iowa is FIRED

Iowa didn't vote for your candidate so you trash them.

90 posted on 02/02/2016 12:47:07 PM PST by FreeReign
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

When was the last time you heard a poll that was right?


91 posted on 02/02/2016 12:50:48 PM PST by Baynative (If socialist democrat ideas are so good for people why must they be mandatory?)
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To: Yo-Yo
people didn't want to be seen standing in the Trump corner with the rest of the mouth breathers

lol

Old as democracy -- you can't tell what the voters are going to do until you get them in their precincts.

Roman voters were famous for talking across the rope barriers (the tribes and clans gathered in roped-off areas, hence "precinct") during the annual elections, so Roman pols learned to oil up the earlier-voting groups to create momentum (good Roman word, same basic word as "move-ment") and try to create a snowball effect.

Politics 101, same as now.

92 posted on 02/02/2016 1:05:28 PM PST by lentulusgracchus ("If America was a house , the Left would root for the termites." - Greg Gutierrez)
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To: TBP
And perhaps overestimated Trump's.

Trump's younger voters didn't show in the proportions the older voters did. Oh, they meant to go .... then Ginger and Bennetta walked by. Oh, well, save the Republic another day, it'll still be there.

93 posted on 02/02/2016 1:14:15 PM PST by lentulusgracchus ("If America was a house , the Left would root for the termites." - Greg Gutierrez)
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To: lentulusgracchus

There is a rumor that some Trump supporters refused to go to the caucuses because Megyn Kelly was covering them.


94 posted on 02/02/2016 1:15:14 PM PST by TBP (Obama lies, Granny dies.)
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To: TBP
They didn't trust themselves not to kill her?

;)

95 posted on 02/02/2016 1:28:22 PM PST by lentulusgracchus ("If America was a house , the Left would root for the termites." - Greg Gutierrez)
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To: TBP

Yep. All of those.


96 posted on 02/02/2016 1:45:31 PM PST by xzins (Have YOU Donated to the Freep-a-Thon? https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: Blood of Tyrants

Thats true, and in both instances they recieved yuge influxes of donations. Both also had no setup to take in those donations, thereby cause them to use said money to build it. By the time they had it built, the election process had gone through three or four more states. The money then dried up, and they couldn’t compete.

The main difference for Cruz is that he already has that organization built. Meaning he can focus his attentions on winning the primaries and caucuses. Not on building the organization to handle that much money.

Everybody mentions this, it falls into many forms of logical fallacies for instance Oversimplification... Many oversimplify the cause of why Santorum and Huckabee lost the nomination, they never discuss the reasons that actually was the cause(I.e. lack of money, lack of organization.)


97 posted on 02/02/2016 1:54:03 PM PST by PA-LU Student (https://www.tedcruz.org/l/ducking-donald/)
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To: FreeReign

No, Ive been trashing them for 16 years.


98 posted on 02/02/2016 2:51:58 PM PST by Rome2000 (SMASH THE CPUSA-SIC SEMPER TYRANNIS-CLOSE ALL MOSQUES)
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To: Rome2000
No, Ive been trashing them for 16 years.

Iowa values, right?

99 posted on 02/02/2016 2:58:57 PM PST by FreeReign
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To: Blood of Tyrants

“A win in Iowa does not mean a win in the other states. Huckaby won Iowa in 2008 and Santorum won in 2012.”

A win in Iowa usually means a loss overall. Only with incumbents does Iowa ever get it right.


100 posted on 02/02/2016 3:01:52 PM PST by CottonBall
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