Posted on 02/09/2016 12:53:16 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
They might not make national headlines, but local endorsements in presidential primaries matter. According to the influential book "The Party Decides," such endorsements reveal party elites trying to come to a decision about which candidate they should mutually support. They are leading indicators of vote - and delegate - outcomes. In many ways, they are better at predicting how the race will turn out than opinion polls.
As we'll explain below, in New Hampshire, Ted Cruz has built up a commanding lead of these endorsements - especially compared with Marco Rubio and Donald Trump, which indicates a reservoir of strength that current polling might be missing.
This echoes our post from a week ago (before the caucus), in which we argued that Ted Cruz's underappreciated strength in Iowa endorsements - he led the field with more than a quarter of the sitting legislators' endorsements - could help him outperform the polling average. And indeed, he did.
On the other hand, there are many endorsements for candidates like Carly Fiorina and Chris Christie. The message is that of a Republican party in New Hampshire deeply divided between a more moderate wing supporting Fiorina and Christie, and a more libertarian wing that now is owned by Cruz (and was for Paul, when he was running).
(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...
I’d say top 3. Trump plus one of the party-dorks and then Cruz is a good day for him. He does need to get 12% or more, IMO. Single digits would look poor. 12%-15% would be a decent day. Kasich is irrelevant if he gets 2nd. Bush or Christie would get a good bump from a 2nd place finish and that might change the complexion of the race going forward.
This group endorsed Ted Cruz:
http://politistick.com/ted-cruz-scores-a-huge-new-hampshire-endorsement-ahead-of-the-primary/
Here they are on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/nhcmp/
So? The GOP hasn't carried New Hampshire since 2000. It's hardly a bell-weather state anymore
Trump needs to win by 23 points or he should drop out tomorrow.
What an idiot.
He is building that wall and keep Ford in the US
Sorry Dan
His ground game in the upcoming states is very impressive and there is a host of conservative states coming up. Bush will hang in there because of cash and a burning hatred of Rubio and Trump. Christie and Kasich are done. One will get some life from NH. But is prolonging the inevitable. Carson and Christie will probably be done after today. I like Fiorina but not sure where her path forward is. Curious to see if Christie wounded Rubio enough to leave Bush as last RINO standing. If Bush makes it to Florida without Rubio, the race shifts to trump, Cruz, and...Bush
Rubio needs to be in the top ten for a BIG victory tonight with the celebration starting with the media.
Whether he wins or not, I want Cruz to get enough votes that Fox, CNN, the GOPe and others have to go home and eat bottles of antacids and aspirins. LOL
Illegal Canadians streaming across the border to vote for him?
Trump has to win by 240% with a margin of 600 million NH voters or he will have lost...
2nd or 3rd would be acceptable in NH, (1st though very unlikely would be awesome!).
As one article phrased it, NH is a "bye" week for Cruz. He is not expected to do well based on their preference for RINOs and liberals. So if Cruz gets 4th, he is fine; third he is happy; 2nd and he would be ecstatic!
I think Trump loses if ANY other candidate gets a single vote.
I’ve had him pegged for third in NH since the first debate. There is no shame in coming in third place there. It’s a very liberal state these days.
And Cruz has to finish second or he's toast.
or something.
Drop out? Really? Ted is going to be in it until the end.
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