Posted on 02/19/2016 3:10:25 PM PST by Elderberry
SAN DIEGO, Calif. -- Researchers from the University of California, San Diego, have created a new statistical model. It shows that when laws require voters to show an ID, it affects voter turnout among different groups. Fewer minorities and people on the political left turn out to vote.
The researchers found strict ID laws cause a lower Democratic turnout by 8.8 percentage points. They only caused 3.6 percent drop in Republican voters.
The study focused on the 11 states with the strictest voter ID laws. Generally, they require a photo ID to cast a ballot. Researchers used a large voter survey database to compare turnout in those states to those in states that do not require voters to prove who they are.
17 States Use An Honor System
Several states have passed less strict ID laws. But in 17 states, including California, New York and Illinois, a more traditional honor system still applies at the ballot box. People in these states are trusted to be honest about who they are instead of being required to prove it with an ID.
People in support of voter ID laws want to protect the ballot box from people who are not honest about who they are. Those against it say that it's rare that people lie about who they are. The laws only hurt minorities and Democrats.
The report by professor Zoltan Hajnal, a UCSD political researcher, indicates the laws have an effect on turnout.
The report says voter ID laws hurt "the turnout of Hispanics, Blacks, Asian-Americans and multi-racial Americans. We also find that voter ID laws skew democracy toward those on the political right."
A Bigger Reduction In Minority, Liberal Participation
Researchers found minority voter participation dropped an average of 4.7 percentage points in states with strict voter ID laws. This includes self-identified Hispanics, blacks, Asian-Americans and mixed-race individuals in general elections.
According to the research, the effect on turnout based on ideology is also pronounced. Self-identified strong Democrats tend to turn out by 7.9 percentage points less when confronted with strict ID laws. Strong Republicans vote at a higher rate, by 4.8 percentage points.
The report used voter information from the Cooperative Congressional Election Studies database. It contained survey results for 50,000 respondents regarding elections from 2006 to 2014. Previous Studies Showed Little Effect On Turnout
The authors say their paper contains more recent election information from states with stricter laws than previous research. The other research found little effect on voter turnout.
Richard Hasen is a professor of law and political science at the UC Irvine School of Law. He cautioned against drawing conclusions from the paper, which is an outlier.
"Social science is not this kind of thing where you have one study and it's a smoking gun and that's it," Hasen said. "It's a situation where you have a ton of studies, and they all point in a particular direction."
Hasen said many factors and changing rules affect voter turnout. Many Americans Support Voter ID Laws
Surveys show wide support for voter ID laws. A 2012 Pew Research Center poll found that 77 percent of registered voters support a photo ID law.
California doesn't have a voter ID law. Talk show host Elise Richmond of Palm Springs tried unsuccessfully to gather signatures to get one on the ballot in 2014. She said if IDs were needed to vote, people would get one eventually.
Richmond, and other voter ID supporters, mentioned Mexico as a model the U.S. should follow; that nation requires a photo ID to vote.
Tony Krvaric is the San Diego County Republican Party chairman. Krvaric voted for the first time when in his native Sweden. He had to have an ID and proof of address. When he immigrated to California, he said, he was surprised when he was only asked for his name.
"You need an ID to fly, you need an ID to drive a car, you need an ID to borrow a library book, so I think it's a common-sense position," Krvaric said. ID Laws Are A Hurdle To Voters
For organizations looking to encourage more people to vote, voter ID laws present a hurdle. Jeanne Brown is the President of the San Diego League of Women Voters. She said voter ID laws lead to lower turnout overall. "There are very few cases of people trying to vote when they aren't qualified to vote," she said.
In the UCSD study, Hispanics show the largest drop in turnout under strict voter ID laws. Next are Asian-American and mixed-race individuals. White individuals showed only a small decrease.
The researchers presented the evidence with a caveat: The drop in voters could be caused by other factors. It is possible strict ID states also have tougher deadlines for voter sign-ups and fewer vote-by-mail options. The paper also says strict voter ID laws may tend to pass in states that have other factors intimidating minority voters.
The paper says the effects of voter ID laws are similar to the effects of poll taxes, literacy tests and residency laws. These "were used by the white majority" in the past "to help deny blacks many basic rights." The paper continues to explain that those laws were also created to help protect democracy, which is the same reason given for voter ID laws.
“Fewer minorities and people on the political left turn out to vote.”
Probably because fewer CRIMINALS who are ILLEGAL and ineligible to vote know they’ll be busted, so they won’t “turn out”.
DEMS want chaos and lawlessness. That’s why they hate voter ID laws.
Right. The ID laws shut down the fraud coming from illegitimate voting.
If you cannot prove your identity, I do not care if you are a Mennonite albino. I do not want you voting. The solution? Get proper ID. Is that so freaking hard to understand?
Just had first primary election in WI with photo ID required. One problem reported, A nut who tried to vote with a VA card, that was it, no elderly or minorities turned away.
The BEST ANSWER to that is to note that doctors/hospitals, etc. will NO LONGER TALK TO YOU, unless you have official ID.
The days when a “Medicare Card” without a photo, was enough to get you treatment are LONG GONE with Obamacare.
Now, if you don’t have ID, YOU BETTER NOT GET SICK, or no one (worth anything) will get near you.
So, if you guys run into people that ‘claim’ to be put out by requiring ID, you might want to let them know that they SURE AS HELL better have some solid ID (like a passport or driver license) if they want to get treated.
In fact, ANYONE who ‘claims’ to have a grandmother (or parent) without a valid ID, NEEDS TO BE JAILED...since that person is using an elder person to make a political point and it may well cost that elder his life.
I’d be willing to assess fraud, FIRST HAND.
That is the way I read it. View that 9% as the over-vote percentage AVERAGE.
It is certainly higher in critical swing states.
Well then the Democrats are races for requiring IDs to get into their rallies
From the article: “Researchers from the University of California, San Diego, have created a new statistical model”
So, is that like a climate prediction model? Those are sooooooo accurate, you know...
Screw it if I can’t vote 5 or 6 times I’m not going to bother
I ‘like’ the idea of the digit in ink.
ALSO, I conjure up images of roving gangs with a bottle of ink grabbing ‘innocents’ and dipping their finger.
You could call that ‘reverse voter fraud’, making it seem like you voted when in actuality you hadn’t.....
Add to need ID for...
If one of the elite write (ghost write) a book and there is a book signing, try and get within 2 blocks of the location.
If the pResident shows up at YOUR local diner, best have some picture ID etc etc etc etc
We in Wisconsin voted in a primary February 16, 2016 using voter ID for the first time. No problems getting and using ID were reported. Turnout for this primary was about 20-30% higher than past February primaries, so ID must not have been a problem.
We passed voter ID a couple of years ago, but court cases delayed starting it.
Someone who has difficulty voting probably has no business doing so.
“There are very few cases of people trying to vote when
they aren’t qualified to vote,”
To quote an old FR standby - “BWA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA-HA!”
The nature of vote fraud is that patronage who depend on a candidate or program for their employment take the identities of other people without their knowledge. They often register those people without their knowledge. It is not the person named in the voter roll who commits the fraud. It is some navigator who needs to keep his job or keep his money coming in.
Well, duh. If Donkey's can't do vote fraud, they tend to lose elections. That is all voter ID does — cut down or eliminate vote fraud.
Photo ID laws sure don’t slow them down when they buy liquor, cigarettes and in California pot.
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