Posted on 02/21/2016 2:33:24 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
Obviously, at a most basic level Trump was a winner here, and the decisiveness of his ten-point win shouldn't be minimized. He is clearly the front-runner in the race right now and he looks to have won all of South Carolina's delegates. On the other hand, it is not just attempting to paint a bright picture for the Trump alternatives to say that Trump's results showed he is still quite beatable.
New Hampshire was a blowout for Trump. He beat his real competition there 35.3 to 22.3 (The combined share of Cruz and Rubio in NH) In South Carolina, things were much more competitive. Cruz and Rubio combined to take 46% of the vote, a number well in excess of Trump's-and there is no reason to believe that much of their vote, or anyone else in the race, will go Trump's way if one of them eventually dropped out.
In many ways, Marco Rubio had the best night, getting a badly needed second place finish (barely nipping Ted Cruz 22.5 to 22.3). I had argued previously that with the top three endorsements in the state, he needed a top two finish, and while his top-line number wasn't all that impressive given the number of heavyweights who lined up behind him, it was good enough to finish second. But what was more important for Rubio is what happened immediately after South Carolina when Jeb Bush suspended his campaign. It's not that Bush, who was polling at 5% nationally will send that many votes to Rubio (if anything, polling seems to suggest that many will go to Kasich), but loyalty to Bush had kept a great number of important GOP figures and donors on the sidelines. Many of these influencers figure to migrate to Rubio, when faced with a choice between him, Cruz and Trump, especially as the fairly dismal performances of Carson and Kasich confirmed that this is a three-man race. The trick for Rubio, however, is that he has to move quickly.
The most recent finance report announced Saturday showed Rubio with just $5 million on-hand, a trivial amount with which to run a national campaign. He has concentrated his efforts predominantly on the first few states (including Nevada, which votes Tuesday) But because he is not nearly as heavily organized as Cruz is in the Super-Tuesday states, he will have to rely on momentum, including an expected raft of expected new endorsements, to carry him through the next couple of weeks while he restocks his war chest. Regardless, having vanquished Bush, he leaves South Carolina far stronger than he left it.
For Cruz, last night was a mixed bag. Cruz actually outpolled his RealClearPolitics polling average by 3.8%, the most of any GOP candidate, and essentially finished in a dead-heat for second with Rubio. Furthermore, he cemented his claim as one of the clear three survivors in what is now effectively a three-man race. He continues to have the most cash on-hand of any candidate and sports the best organization in the upcoming Super Tuesday states. But for a campaign that has built much of its outreach strategy on evangelical voters, and has dominated in evangelical endorsements, losing this voting block to the profane Trump must be dispiriting, and it is a disquieting omen for the Southern "Super Tuesday" states on which Cruz has staked a great deal of his campaigns fortunes.
On the other hand, there is good reason to believe that Cruz is well positioned to do better on Super Tuesday than his respectable SC showing. Every candidate was on the ground numerous times in all of the early primary states (Iowa, NH, South Carolina). Leaders from each have been courted for many months now, and the candidates spent weeks on the ground in each state.
That simply isn't true for the Super Tuesday states, fourteen of whom vote on March 1st. Many campaigns have had almost no presence there and little organization. Their airwaves haven't been saturated with political ads, and with so many states to cover, voters won't be able to be won over with personal appeals. Turnout figures to be substantially lower than it was in the first three states. All of these factors award the best-organized candidate, and right now that candidate his Cruz, who, with his allied SuperPACs have concentrated most of their resources on these states from the very beginning.
The stakes will be high for Cruz on March 1st, but with a strong showing, including, perhaps a win in the biggest prize, his home state of Texas, Cruz could easily wind up in a very strong position after Super Tuesday.
However, if the goal is to stop Trump from winning the nomination, both Rubio and Cruz may have to alter their strategy going forward. Head-to-head polling regularly shows both Cruz and Rubio beating Trump one-on-one. It's partly for this reason that the two have trained their fire on each other, each hoping to be the one to take on Trump. What South Carolina shows is that this choice, appealing as it may be to each campaign in theory, may not really be available in practice. Neither Cruz nor Rubio seems likely to be able to easily vanquish the other. It may be that their only path to victory going forward is to work together to take Trump down.
The National Review = The Establishment Review
http://powderedwigsociety.com/ = the conspiracy crowd.
It’s that good?
Glad to get your silly post affirmation.
Trump will be the only president that already has buildings named for him before he’s even elected.
If you are anyone but Trump, and I am, either Rubio or Cruz need to drop out after the big one in March. I agree with Rush.
“President” Trump’s drooling over all the legal departments he can use to sue everyone - using their own money no less - a true died and gone to heaven moment for The Donald.
So silly - that’s the best you got?
I don’t get why people are lumping Cruz and Rubio vote totals and comparing them to Trump. Even with all the infighting between Trump supporters and Cruz supporters here at Free Republic, I’m pretty sure that if we lose our candidate we are not going to be running to Rubio like cattle.
This NR.
AGAINST TRUMP ISSUE:
Glenn Beck
David Boaz
Brent Bozell III
Mona Charen
Ben Domenech
Erick Erickson
Steven F. Hayward
Mark Helprin
William Kristol
Yuval Levin
Dana Loesch
Andrew C. McCarthy
David M. McIntosh
Michael Medved
Edwin Meese III
Russell Moore
Michael B. Mukasey
Katie Pavlich
John Podhoretz
R.R. Reno
Thomas Sowell
Cal Thomas
Is this another “fact” you’re posting about candidates? Lol.
Oh, you meant your own set of facts, we see.
Keep it up, CW. You do wonders for the candidates you DON’T support.
And we also learned that the SC Governor and a SC Senator had expressed opinions without impact or influence. Bye, bye ...
What’s your point?
I wonder if we dug up all the Obama birther posts from the past 7 years ... I wonder what side of that fight you put yourself on?
Amanda Marcotte
Heather Digby Parton
Trump and Cruz combined would DESTROY Rubio.
The writer is assuming everyone in the Jeb camp and Cruz camp will go to Rubio.
First, there are Jeb supporters that do not like Rubio. Ditto Carson supporters. Second, most of the Trump and Cruz supporters are ANTI ESTABLISHMENT. For the most part I believe most of the Cruz supporters would go to Trump.
Rubio is THOROUGHBRED 100% CERTIFIED ESTABLISHMENT.
Rubio is Mr Gang of 8
Rubio is for a pathway to citizenship = Amnesty with a small fine that most likely will never be paid.
Rubio is for Rigged Trade Agreements that destroy the United States.
Rubio is for war in Syria
Rubio is for Common Core
What did Rubio accomplish in the Senate?
If you want mass deficits, endless wars, Amnesty, continued destruction of the United States, Common Core from someone who has never done anything in the Senate, then vote for Rubio.
With Rubio we will get more or less what we have had for the last 8 years.
If you thought the Obama years were great, then vote for Rubio.
NRO thinks sworn enemies Cruz and Rubio will work together to take down Trump.
That is placing too much faith in human nature.
People are not going to help a rival at a disadvantage to themselves.
They do not know how to read politics over at NRO.
Here's a Cruz "birther" thread I posted.
Birther Challenge Against Ted Cruz Dismissed By Illinois Board Of Elections
And another:
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