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Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
http://fivethirtyeight.com ^ | Mar 7, 2016 | Nate Silver

Posted on 03/07/2016 4:49:33 PM PST by ObamahatesPACoal

The other Republican candidates’ chances of stopping Donald Trump look marginally better today than they did on Friday. Trump won just two of five contests over the weekend and only 30 percent of delegates. Trump remains the front-runner, however, having won 43 percent of the delegates overall among the 20 states and territories to have voted so far.

Although that’s short of a majority, Trump will have a chance to improve on his pace as the calendar turns toward states that have more aggressive delegate allocation methods — especially winner-take-all Florida and Ohio, which vote March 15. If Trump wins both states, he’ll have a good chance of eventually getting a delegate majority. If he loses both, we might be headed to a contested convention in Cleveland.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016election; ceiling; demelectionrules; nate; silver; trump
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Nate Silver inputed a (D) into his program instead of an (R).

That's why his predictions on Trump's ceiling are all wrong.

1 posted on 03/07/2016 4:49:33 PM PST by ObamahatesPACoal
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To: ObamahatesPACoal

Trump is going to lay a massive rotten egg if he gets nominated that it would completely destroy the Republican party. May be that is a good thing, but it will certainly be a disaster with the Hillary presidency.


2 posted on 03/07/2016 5:01:17 PM PST by sagar (3 way race; cranky populist - Trump/Sanders, establishment - Hillary/Roobio, conservative - Cruz!)
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To: sagar

Yeah sure thing. That’s what was said about Reagan too


3 posted on 03/07/2016 5:02:39 PM PST by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
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To: Nifster

“That’s what was said about Reagan too”

Are you comparing Reagan to tRump?


4 posted on 03/07/2016 5:05:09 PM PST by sagar (3 way race; cranky populist - Trump/Sanders, establishment - Hillary/Roobio, conservative - Cruz!)
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To: ObamahatesPACoal

And easier if he easn’t running. What s nonsensical piece of crap.


5 posted on 03/07/2016 5:17:42 PM PST by ex91B10 (We've tried the Soap Box,the Ballot Box and the Jury Box; ONE BOX LEFT!)
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To: sagar

Why yes we are. Problem? I didn’t think so.


6 posted on 03/07/2016 5:18:01 PM PST by napscoordinator (Trump/Hunter, jr for President/Vice President 2016)
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To: ObamahatesPACoal

Take away his home state of Texas, and it’s subsidiary Oklahoma, Cruz has lost every other standard primary.

All other Cruz wins are from Caucus states, with much thinner turnouts, and pressure on voters at the caucuses.

Just think, if bible thumping Cruz can not win deep south primaries with boat loads of evangelicals, how in the world is he going to win against Hillary in blue states and purple states? Even a New York values candidate has defeated Cruz in all southern primaries.


7 posted on 03/07/2016 5:26:21 PM PST by entropy12 (When you vote, you are actually voting for the rich donors!)
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To: entropy12

And it appears that there may be a lot of fraud in some of those elections that Cruz won.


8 posted on 03/07/2016 5:34:41 PM PST by erkelly
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9 posted on 03/07/2016 5:36:33 PM PST by DoughtyOne (Facing Trump nomination inevitability, folks are now openly trying to help Hillary destroy him.)
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To: sagar

Trump has picked up Democrats. He can easily beat her. The only thing that will block him are the same idiot purists who helped put a Marxist, racist, Islamist is the White House because McCain and Romney weren’t pure enough to vote for.


10 posted on 03/07/2016 5:37:17 PM PST by ZULU (If you support Stokes or Obama, you are too stupid to own a gun.)
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To: ObamahatesPACoal
Ridiculous for Puerto Rico to have ANY say in this, since their votes are not counted in the general.

Also Trump won a majority of all votes cast on Saturday, yet Cruz ended up with 65% of delegates, thanks to the stupid caucus process.

11 posted on 03/07/2016 5:41:22 PM PST by montag813
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To: ZULU

“Trump has picked up Democrats. He can easily beat her.”

How so? Can you show me data to show that he can beat her, let alone “easily”?

Trump, despite his progressive-friendly policies, is NOT going to out-democrat the true-blue Democrats. He might get cross-over voters during the primaries, but they ain’t voting for a Republican, no matter how liberal his policies are.


12 posted on 03/07/2016 6:20:20 PM PST by sagar (3 way race; cranky populist - Trump/Sanders, establishment - Hillary/Roobio, conservative - Cruz!)
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To: napscoordinator

“Why yes we are. Problem?”

Yes, I have a YUUUGE problem with lies. tRump is nowhere close to Reagan. tRump is a snake-oil salesman that have a lot of conservatives in his trance. The guy is openly advocating for Planned Parenthood, universal healthcare, and wants to throw money into the Social Security/Medicare/Medicaid money pit. No, thanks, he ain’t Reagan!


13 posted on 03/07/2016 6:23:14 PM PST by sagar (3 way race; cranky populist - Trump/Sanders, establishment - Hillary/Roobio, conservative - Cruz!)
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To: montag813

“Also Trump won a majority of all votes cast on Saturday, yet Cruz ended up with 65% of delegates, thanks to the stupid caucus process. “

Were you also bummed in 2000 when algore lost despite winning the popular vote?


14 posted on 03/07/2016 6:25:16 PM PST by sagar (3 way race; cranky populist - Trump/Sanders, establishment - Hillary/Roobio, conservative - Cruz!)
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To: sagar

I am comparing the hysteria


15 posted on 03/07/2016 6:44:37 PM PST by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
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To: sagar

Right while your guy goes to gay parties. Vote to give Iran Nucs and is a big trade guy which is against America.


16 posted on 03/07/2016 6:48:57 PM PST by napscoordinator (Trump/Hunter, jr for President/Vice President 2016)
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To: napscoordinator

“Right while your guy goes to gay parties. Vote to give Iran Nucs and is a big trade guy which is against America.”

So, Cruz has gone to gay parties and voted to give Iran nukes?

Btw, free trade is a big plus. Trump himself called himself a “free trader”, but is a crony-capitalist with his bought-off cronies issuing eminent domains to take homes away from the people to build parking lots and strip clubs.


17 posted on 03/07/2016 6:56:14 PM PST by sagar (3 way race; cranky populist - Trump/Sanders, establishment - Hillary/Roobio, conservative - Cruz!)
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To: entropy12
Take away his home state of Texas, and it’s subsidiary Oklahoma, Cruz has lost every other standard primary. All other Cruz wins are from Caucus states, with much thinner turnouts, and pressure on voters at the caucuses. Just think, if bible thumping Cruz can not win deep south primaries with boat loads of evangelicals, how in the world is he going to win against Hillary in blue states and purple states? Even a New York values candidate has defeated Cruz in all southern primaries.

This.

18 posted on 03/07/2016 7:17:45 PM PST by DouglasKC
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To: ObamahatesPACoal

Hundreds of articles about Trump last few weeks with the word STOP in the title. This is something to behold. He’s expanding the tent perceptibly just like the party RINO’s wanted all along and they want to stop him. Disgusting. People are slow to wake to these kinds of shifts sometimes but the revolt is about to get bigger. Trump will benefit.


19 posted on 03/07/2016 8:11:01 PM PST by toddausauras (Trump 2016)
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To: sagar
Were you also bummed in 2000 when algore lost despite winning the popular vote?

My point is that Cruz has benefited greatly from such caucus distortion, which is now basically over.

20 posted on 03/07/2016 10:27:55 PM PST by montag813
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