Posted on 03/08/2016 6:09:04 PM PST by Kaslin
Much of the criticism aimed toward presidential candidate Donald Trump by other Republicans has been predicated on the assumption that he will lose in the general election. Trump's many provocative statements, which would be considered gaffes if uttered by any other candidate but have somehow worked for him, are generally assumed to preclude him from securing the broad support necessary to claim victory in November.
However, one method of analysis known as the Primary Model predicts that Trump would not only win in the general if nominated by Republicans, but completely dominate. From the Huffington Post:
Trump will defeat Hillary Clinton with 87 percent certainty, and Bernie Sanders with 99 percent.
These forecasts come from the PRIMARY MODEL. It is a statistical model that relies on presidential primaries and an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election.
Early primaries are a leading indicator of electoral victory in November. Trump won the Republican primaries in both New Hampshire and the South Carolina while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders split the Democratic primaries in those states.
What favors the GOP in 2016 as well, no matter if Trump is the nominee or any other Republican, is a cycle of presidential elections. After two terms of Democrat Barack Obama in the White House the electoral pendulum is poised to swing to the GOP this year. This cycle, which is illustrated with elections since 1960, goes back a long way to 1828.
Basically, the Primary Model looks at how well candidates perform in their respective party primaries and extrapolates from there how they will do in the general. According to Helmut Norpoth, a professor of political science at Stony Brook University and the author of the HuffPo piece, the model accurately predicts the winner every presidential election since 1912 with only one exception. Incidentally, the model also shows both Cruz and Rubio losing if nominated.
The question is whether Trump could be the next blemish on the Primary Model's record. Not all things are equal in this election cycle. Trump's candidacy has defied conventional political science in more ways than one. Can statistical analysis account for the impact of Democrats beating Trump over the head with David Duke ads all summer?
NO WAY….Ted will win the general HAHAHAH. Not.
35 states
Should Trump win the general election I think he will have rather long coattails.
38 million in vicious attack ads against Trump....WASTED.
I’m not voting for Cruz but he could actually win depending on how weak the Democrats end up.
He's starting to cultivate that tonight: smart.
At that point he might be publicly smelling out candidates who say they are willing to work with him.
That could be a mix of Rep and Dem.
MICHIGAN:
TRUMP WINS
SANDERS 51% CLINTON 47%
MISSISSIPPI:
CLINTON, TRUMP WIN
Trump will win over hillary, so be prepared for another treasonist act from obama.
“NO WAY….Ted will win the general HAHAHAH. Not.”
Well, Ted “is on his way tonight!” Third place is the new winner in MI (Trump +16%) and second place is the new winner in MS (Trump +16%).
Would love a counter of all the money wasted by Republicans against our lovable 'orange gumby'.
If anything, they’ve gotten people asking “Is Donald Trump all that bad?” And frequently they come away with the answer “no.”
Trump will win over hillary, so be prepared for another treasonist act from obama.
Those so inclined might want to say some prayers for the safety of Donald Trump.
“Coattails” is a big question. Among other support, Trump is appealing to white middle class dems who feel just as abandoned by their party as white middle class pubs do by the despicable GOPe.
I can see these disenfranchised dems going to the booth to vote for Trump but then putting an “x” next to the dem all the rest of the way down the ballot.
But who knows? This whole thing is completely uncharted territory.
Cruz is the best Constitutional candidate but Trump is by far and away the smarter. I wish I was as quick on my feet as he is and he is 69.
“38 million in vicious attack ads against Trump....WASTED.”
Trump is blowing apart the entire corrupt campaign SCAM. Lobbyists run this country. And all they know how to do is waste money.
Cruz could well serve an advisory/supportive role to Trump. I don’t see Trump as a grudge holder as much as an alpha dog. Once the beta dogs agree with him that they are beta dogs, then the whole pack gets along fine.
Now I understand why the republican branch of the Unirparty wants to take Trump out.
Those of us supporting him knew this all along.
This is the thing. I actually prefer Cruz and in the general election there is a chance that Cruz could eke out a win against Clinton. But Trump would destroy her. I’d rather go with the certain win.
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