Posted on 03/13/2016 4:09:07 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Science! (Is economics really a science? I’ve long felt it should be taught alongside astrology or some related field.) In any event, the continent sized Petri dish which is the American jobs market has been the subject of much speculation since the Fight for Fifteen muscled its way into the presidential campaign debate. It’s a very populist position which the Democrats have been riding like rocket. At the same time, people who actually study such matters have been warning that it would backfire spectacularly, particularly if it was implemented in a rush. Job availability is subject to the same laws of supply and demand as anything else, and jacking up wages almost always has to result in fewer jobs. Last year I published a piece which summarized the findings of a number of analysts who had come to that conclusion and drew considerable flack for it.
Liberals weren’t interested, however. Even the Obama administration had the Department of Labor publish some “myth busters” on the subject, assuring all the citizens that everything would be just fine and everyone would get a pony.
Myth: Increasing the minimum wage will cause people to lose their jobs.
Not true: In a letter to President Obama and congressional leaders urging a minimum wage increase, more than 600 economists, including 7 Nobel Prize winners wrote, “In recent years there have been important developments in the academic literature on the effect of increases in the minimum wage on employment, with the weight of evidence now showing that increases in the minimum wage have had little or no negative effect on the employment of minimum-wage workers, even during times of weakness in the labor market. Research suggests that a minimum-wage increase could have a small stimulative effect on the economy as low-wage workers spend their additional earnings, raising demand and job growth, and providing some help on the jobs front.”
Much of our debate last year centered on the city of Seattle, which has boldly lurched into new minimum wage territory. They’ve already increased the rate to one of the highest in the nation inside the city borders and are on track to have everyone at fifteen dollars an hour by next year. So how’s that working out for them?
Man, sometimes I really hate it when I’m right. (NY Post)
The AEI study, worked up from Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly surveys, shows that, between April and December last year, Seattle saw the biggest employment drop in any nine-month period since 2009 — a full year into the Great Recession.
The city unemployment rate rose a full percentage point.
Before the minimum-wage hikes begin, Seattle employment tracked the rest of the nation — slowly rising from the 2008-09 bottom. But it started to plunge last spring, as the new law began to kick in.
Furthermore, Seattle’s loss of 10,000 jobs in just the three months of September, October and November was a record for any three-month period dating back to 1990.
A city of that size, previously tracking the employment rate curve across much of the nation, lost 10,000 jobs just between September and November. And most of them were at the lowest end of the pay scale. We don’t know how many more were lost in the three months since then, but those numbers will be finalized soon and they are going in the same direction. That’s a massive number of jobs for a single city of that size.
But wait, you might say. Fluctuations in employment are frequently regional in nature. This could just be because that part of the country happens to be doing worse.
Oh, really? Then how do you explain this?
Meanwhile, employment outside the city limits — which had long tracked the rate in Seattle proper — was soaring by 57,000 and set a new record high that November.
Businesses in the suburbs were thriving and adding jobs. Not just a few, either. Tens of thousands of new jobs were created as employers escaped the steep labor costs in the urban center and traffic increased for owners charging lower prices.
At this point can we finally dispense with all of the expert papers from liberal economists ensuring us that every liberal idea that comes down the pike simply must be a winner because it was thought up by people they approve of and it makes the unions happy? Is not the pursuit of “science” reliant upon the data coming out of the test labs at some point? You’re murdering the job market in Seattle in front of everyone’s eyes and yet the same policies are being pushed on the campaign trail by Democrats as a prescription for the entire nation.
Capitalism is a complicated beast and it’s very regional in nature. The minimum wage for one area may make sense while being far too low or too high when transplanted elsewhere. Top down management of the capitalist system will not work because the beast operates under immutable laws which you can’t change by waving a magic wand.
Democrats never learn and never apologize for their failures.
Democrats are never held accountable.
With Dems, sometimes there’s a hidden motivation.
The agitation for $15 minimum wage clearly panders to those who are making less than that now, although many of them will in fact lose their jobs.
But, there’s a hidden aspect: A huge Dem support bloc is the unions. As I understand it, some of their contracts specify a premium over the minimum wage. When the minimum goes up, it pushes up all of the contracted pay. Presto... magic!
Eight Commandments of the Left Establishment
See #1,2,3.
I
Thou shall create an illusion of invulnerability shared by most members to foster excessive optimism and encourage extreme risks taking
II
Thou shall not allow any member to question the group's inherent morality; instead members shall be encouraged to ignore the ethical or moral consequences of their decisions
III
Thou shall promote collective efforts to rationalize in order to discount warnings, or other information that might lead members to reconsider their assumptions before they recommit themselves to their assumptions
IV
Thou shall reinforce stereotyped views of enemy leaders as too evil to warrant genuine attempts to negotiate, or as too weak and stupid to counter whatever risky attempts are made to defeat their purpose
V
Thou shall self-censor any deviation from the apparent group consensus, inclining each member to minimize the importance of their doubts and counterarguments
VI
Thou shall create and maintain a shared illusion of unanimity concerning judgment conforming to the majority view
VII
Thou shall apply direct pressure on any member who expresses strong arguments against any of the group's stereotypes, illusions, or commitments, making clear that this type of dissent is contrary to what is expected of all loyal members
VIII
Thou shall appoint mind guards to protect the group from adverse information that might shatter their shared complacency about the effectiveness and morality of their decisions
-Eddie01 (adapted from Erving Janis '82)
-—(Is economics really a science?——
no of course not. economists fiddle with number making it more like applied math
they conjure up predictions like ancient entrail readers
economics is in reality a black art
Justvwaitbtll Mr. Amnesty, Democrat Luis Gutierrez gets the minimum wage to the $30.00 an hour he wants
Moto 3 cells do strange things to posts
I'm shocked! /s
http://www.nytimes.com/1987/01/14/opinion/the-right-minimum-wage-0.00.html
I used to believe in the laws of economics, but this is the dawning of the Age of Aquarius, and things will be different now.
Also many union entry positions are exempt from new minimum wage hikes. Making Union jobs popular with employers in certain situations while lining the coffers of Unions. http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-los-angeles-minimum-wage-unions-20150526-story.html
Isnt’t it great when brainless liberals get to experience the consequences of their own stupidity?
Do away with the min. wage. We don’t need it anymore. Supply and demand will decide.
Are these professional-paid, professionally-outfitted with T-shirts and signs fatso’s demanding a 45% increase in their “minimum wage” going to DO anything to EARN that 45% increase?
are they are to suddenly be creating 45% more product, work 55% more efficiently, make 45% less errors, or create a demand for 45% MORE product from the customers?
I just hope their food-intake didn’t increase by 45%.
”State inspection laws, health laws, and laws for regulating the internal commerce of a State, and those which respect turnpike roads, ferries, &c. are not within the power granted to Congress [emphases added].” —Gibbons v. Ogden, 1824.
H O W E V E R …
Even if 10A powers are constitutionally unchecked, such powers can still be checked by social Darwinism imo. For example, if a city or state shoots both feet off with a foolish application of its 10A powers as evidenced by the $15 minimum wage, I suppose that a city can be removed from the map, or a star from the flag if a state implodes itself.
What you say about the unions is true, but I read that in some places the unions are exempt from the minimum wage they fought for, thereby making it more attractive for business to become unionized. The unions only care about funding their existence, not about the workers.
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