Posted on 03/15/2016 1:28:31 PM PDT by Sybeck1
An analysis released Tuesday by two think tanks shows how Donald Trump could win The White House with a single-digit increase in the share of the white vote.
If the non-white vote for Democrats remains the same and Trump gains four more percent of the white vote, he would flip eight states that President Barack Obama carried in 2012, The New York Times reports.
The study was done jointly by the Brookings Institution and The American Enterprise Institute. The Republican Party’s autopsy after the 2012 election showed that the GOP presidential nominee should moderate his tone on immigration and social issues in order to win over voters.
Trump has eschewed this method, all while increasing turnout in the primaries. He has instead appealed to working-class whites with a economic nationalist pitch denouncing free trade deals and open-borders.
Non-white voters are increasing, while whites are dying out. Obama was able to use this to his advantage in 2012 winning, despite Romney gaining 59 percent share of the white vote. (RELATED: Census Report Shows Majority Of Americans Under Age Five Are Minorities)
This is near record amounts. President Reagan received 60 percent of the white vote in 1984. What Trump would need to do is increase the white vote share in states such as New Hampshire, where Obama won 51 percent of that demographic in 2012.
By increasing his share of the white vote by four percentage points in Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, Trump would take those Obama states.
A key point here in the non-white vote share remaining the same. Democrats are already preparing to use Trump’s rhetoric against him and turn out Hispanic voters out in droves. (RELATED: Soros To Spend Millions On ‘Immigrant Voters Win PAC’)
The New York real estate developer could hedge against this increase of Latino voters by securing a larger portion of black votes than Republican candidates have previously gotten. In 2012, Mitt Romney only got 7 percent of support from this demographic. The best a Republican has done was Reagan with 14 percent in 1980.
Republican pollster Frank Luntz has previously said, “If [Trump] were the Republican nominee he would get the highest percentage of black votes since Ronald Reagan in 1980.”
If the vote share between races and genders remains the same in 2016 as it did in 2012, Democrats are poised to win with 51.5 percent.
This is simply to inform the vote counters exactly how many votes will need to be “created” or “lost”.
Interesting viewpoint. Brown is the new white.
Time to consolidate the white vote completely. Democraps have betrayed white america
White Power!!! Okay, I am just having fun.
Every year, 2.48m (mostly white, majority Republican) folks die and are replaced by 2.52m (majority non-white, heavily Democrat) folks.
Long term the country is in deep squatting doo doo.
But I thought the Hispanic vote was key to capture the White House.
Time for the NAAWP !!!! Life is a TWO-way street.
Honestly, I can see Trump getting well over 70% of the white vote this November. As a person of color myself I can objectively say whites have been made the scapegoat for all the problems in this country, and that’s why you’re seeing heavy turnouts throughout the land. Blue collar white Democrats will crossover in big numbers this November for Trump. The political pundits aren’t prepared for what they’re going to see.
Democrats get their way, and, they’d probably push to count whites as 3/5 of a citizen.
They already have it in their playbook archives.
Donald Trump’s Tampa Office Is an Unlikely Melting Pot
Yes, I saw that. What a silly article.
He’s not a racist, and they’re just floored to find out.
Dear Alex-stop telling people to pander and repeat after me-
Most people of Hispanic ancestry are Caucasian/white-many of us are whiter than you.
Illegals/mojados do not have the right to vote-only US citizens can vote.
Naturalized/legal US citizens of Hispanic ancestry from other countries can and do vote-and they do not like or want illegals here.
Natural born Americans of Hispanic ancestry can and do vote-and we despise mojados and want them all sent home yesterday-we love the fact that someone is willing to do just that-and we don’t give a flying **** what you think-so get your facts straight...
You forgot “I’m proud to be an American”, said all the non-bigoted people of every race and ethnicity...
Which is what several of us have pointed out for eight months. The math is pretty obvious. For example, OH: Bush won OH in 2004 by a mere 117,000 votes. Zero beat Minion in 2012 by 160,000 votes.
So pretty clearly there are under 200,000 votes in Ohio that are in play and which can make a difference.
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