Trump risks falling short of delegate count for nomination [100 delegates short of 1,237]

The Hill ^ | 03/16/2016 | By Ben Kamisar

[SeekAndFind]

Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump has secured more than half of the delegates needed to win the nomination, but he will need to pick up his pace to clinch 1,237 delegates and avoid a contested convention.

Trump’s strong performance in the Tuesday night primaries will make it tough for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) to catch him. He has secured 621 delegates, according to The Associated Press's projections as of 8:00 a.m. Wednesday, compared to 396 for Cruz and 138 for Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

Those three men are now the only active GOP candidates. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) suspended his campaign on Tuesday after losing Florida. He has 167 delegates.

About 60 percent of the 2,472 GOP delegates have been awarded, and Trump has won about 47 percent of them.

If he continues to win at that same clip, he’d fall more than 100 delegates short of 1,237, which would set up a contested convention.

That's the result Kasich is hoping for, since the Ohio governor has no chance of getting to 1,237 himself and little realistic chance of overtaking Trump.

Cruz believes he can still take the delegate lead from Trump, but he would have a better chance with Kasich out of the race and only two men to divide up the rest of the delegates.

Even that road would be tough for Cruz, however, who would need a win in Arizona's winner-take-all primary next week as well as a victory in Wisconsin's April 5 contest.

For Trump to get to 1,237, he needs to win more than about 60 percent of the remaining delegates.

[20yearsofinternet]

Any day now, Trump will collapse and drop out.

Again.

Kasich/Cruz/The Ghost of Jeb 2016! LOL

[Cyberman]

The GOP Establishment needs to be on notice: If you pull some scam at the convention to replace the choice of the voters with the choice of the apparatchiks, we will stay home in November. Better to rip off the bandage all at once than to let the corruption fester.

[Teacher317]

My conjecture, and that of many others for months, is that Trump has a ceiling near 50%. If this is so, Cruz can win before the Convention (if Kasich gets out soon enough). If I am wrong (it HAS happened, once or twice before, LOL), then Trump will win easily once Kasich is gone, by several hundred delegates. The GOPe desperately needs Kasich to stay in, despite being mathematically eliminated today, so that they can get to the Convention. Kasich staying in means he cares more about the Convention than about the voters.

[MNJohnnie]

Actually Senate Confirmation will be easy.

Trump:

Look Mitch and Chuck

This Cruz guy is a Senator from TX. That is a safe GOP seat for life and he is a young healthy guy. Cruz is going to be in the Senate for 40-50 more years unless you let me kick him over to the Court.

Cruz would win confirmation 99-0

[Mr. K]

someone go boot Kasich in the ass

[Cowboy Bob]

The GOPe thinks they can out-negotiate Trump at a brokered convention? LOL

[MNJohnnie]

Your math is wrong. it appear the author took out MO without awarding the MO delegates.

[TexasFreeper2009]

Any assumption that assumes Trump comes up short assumes Trump loses California, but the latest poll shows Trump up big in California.

http://www.capoliticalreview.com/top-stories/trump-has-big-lead-in-new-california-poll/

Trump 38%
Cruz 22%

With California, Arizona, New York and New Jersey Trump has this easy.

[Lady Heron]

Cruz comes up um,, shorter.

Duh. So the point is just to be nasty and turn off the people you need to vote Trump later?

It is time for Trump and Cruz to work together to defeat the establishment. Otherwise the establishment chooses.

[20yearsofinternet]

538 apparently isn’t factoring in MO in all of their “Trump is doomed” articles either. Must be the GOPe/MSM marching orders for the day.

[inkfarmer]

good one

[Teacher317]

The GOP Establishment needs to be on notice: If you pull some scam at the convention to replace the choice of the voters with the choice of the apparatchiks, we will stay home in November.

November?!?! I don't know about you, but I'm driving down to Cleveland if they try to pull that off this summer.

They DO NOT CARE if we stay home in November. They WANT Hillary, and a few GOP Congressmen have openly said so already. With Hillary, the UniParty stays in power, and they survived this huge scare. Threatening to stay home in NOV does NOTHING to them.

[nopardons]

They certainly do.

This is a biasedly written article by someone who finds math difficult to do.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: it appear the author took out MO without awarding the MO delegates.

OK, let’s add 25 delegates to the count, where does that leave us?

[hoosiermama]

Count Indiana in the Trump camp. Even our local democrats want to BUILD THE WALL !

[nopardons]

EXACTLY !

Everyone needs to commit to convincing fence sitters to vote for Trump in the upcoming primaries and to volunteer to take people to the polls.

[kkalman]

What if Trump and Kasich team up? Don-Juan ticket?

[TheStickman]

Nothing burger full of disordered thinking like most nothing burgers.

The previous states are not the states who haven’t voted yet.

[MNJohnnie]

People need to understand those “party hacks” are local and state political figures. Going to be awful tough to go back home to the voters if you gave them the finger at the Convention just because a bunch of DC screaming heads told you too.

The assumption here is those local and state officials are going to commit career ending suicide just because DC tells them to.

[nopardons]

SPOT ON !