Posted on 03/18/2016 6:23:08 AM PDT by Kaslin
After years of pushing unwelcome candidates on an unhappy conservative base, the GOP Establishment has been soundly defeated in 2016. But some establishment players still dream of John Kasich or Paul Ryan emerging from the wreckage of a contested convention.
Donald Trump pointed out that there would be riots if he entered the convention with a big lead and the party leaders denied him the nomination. Ted Cruz agrees and thinks the idea of a convention would be "an absolute disaster." Cruz added that "The way to beat Donald Trump is at the ballot box."
Cruz, of course, is the only candidate who has a chance to beat Trump at the ballot box.
And that's the real dilemma facing the Republican leadership. They claim to want anybody but Trump, but what they really want is another establishment candidate. They won't embrace Cruz, even though he is the only viable candidate not named Trump.
As I write this, Trump has 673 delegates while Cruz has 411. Trump would need to win 52 percent of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination. He might be able to do that, but there's a good chance he won't. For Cruz, getting to 1,237 is almost impossible. He would need to win 77 percent of the remaining delegates.
But there is a more modest goal that both can realistically obtain. That's to enter the convention with more delegates than anybody else. While Trump has the advantage, he still needs to keep on winning. If Cruz were to win a decent majority of the remaining 1,076 delegates, he would end the primary season with roughly the same number as Trump.
That means the question before us is simple. Can Cruz beat Trump in the remaining 20 states? If so, the Texas Senator would likely end up as the Republican nominee. He would have a great claim to being the legitimate choice
To be clear, I am not predicting a Cruz victory. For the Texas Senator to emerge victorious will require beating the New York billionaire consistently, something that hasn't happened yet. But anything is possible now that the field is down to two legitimate contenders. Will Rubio supporters back Cruz over Trump? Will Kasich supporters abandon his campaign to nowhere? We don't know, but the voters will tell us soon.
On Tuesday, 98 delegates will be awarded in Arizona and Utah. Arizona is a winner-take-all primary where Trump is favored, while Utah is a caucus where Cruz is favored. It Trump wins both, the race is over. If Cruz wins both, Trump's run to the nomination could be in trouble. A split decision keeps the race alive.
After that, the campaign trail heads to North Dakota and Wisconsin, which are thought to be good prospects for Cruz. If they are, the race won't be decided until the last primary day on June 7.
Taking a step back, though, it's important to keep in mind what has already been decided by the voters. The Republican establishment has been defeated. Marco Rubio articulated the reasons in his concession speech. Voters gave Republicans control of Congress in 2010 and 2014, but nothing changed.
With that track record, it's no wonder that many GOP voters have embraced their inner-Donald Trump to say "You're Fired!"
I am not as optimistic as Mr. Rasmussen.
I still believe the GOPe will not be able to resist the temptation to call an audible at the line of scrimmage on Rule 40.
Start packing for Cleveland. Bring your pitchforks.
Cross-over votes are the key to Trump/s success.
One blogger said he always mentions Trump and Sanders together.
This prevents brain lock in a liberal.
Then he casually mentions, “there/s so much corruption in politics”....offhandedly referring to super-delegates attached to Hillary preventing Poor Bernie from getting the nom.
The blogger confided he actually got a liberal to say “Hillary should be indicted” using this strategy.
Ford, Bush41, Dole, McLame, Romney. Enough already!
Mine is an assault fork. High capacity tines.
You mean ignore Rule 40 (8 states or more of 50.1% plus of delegates)?
Trump crested that requirement some time ago, and Cruz has or likely will.
So how does Rule 40 come into play if both candidates meet its requirements?
Wait. Hold on here. Clownhall.com has been consistently 100 pe’cent Trump-Deranged.
How did they let Rasmussen post anything but the Emmanuel-Goldstien-15-minutes-of-hate?
Cruz should wake up.
Then apologize for voting for ObamaTRADE’s vote.
And then bow out, gracefully.
Instead, he will be used by Romney, as he was by
Goldman Sacs, and will remain indifferent.
Cruz has won how many states v. Trump?
Cruz is projected to win how many states v. Trump?
Remaining states on the calendar (NY, PA, NJ, CA) includes a lot of places with lots of electoral votes that will NOT be friendly territory for Cruz.
electoral votes = delegates. Sorry!
On Tuesday, 98 delegates will be awarded in Arizona and Utah. Arizona is a winner-take-all primary where Trump is favored, while Utah is a caucus where Cruz is favored. It Trump wins both, the race is over. If Cruz wins both, Trump's run to the nomination could be in trouble. A split decision keeps the race alive.Utah has 40 delegates.
Trump is currently at 692
And Arizona has 58 that is winner take all
Utah is proportional. Trump will get some. not many but some
I agree. The elites will choose their candidates, not the voters. Power does what it wants.
Oh, piff. In order to win, he has to win just over HALF of the remaining delegates? MIGHT be able to?
When ESPN has a game that's a laugher, this is the way they talk. If Trump can't win the majority of delegates left, he doesn't deserve to win.
A split decision means Trump gets all of Arizona’s delegates and splits Utah’s. Doesn’t seem very encouraging for Cruz.
Our votes for a nominee may not count at all.
There seems to be more to the story from the GOP elitists view: A head member of the GOP Rules Committee stated recently that the the popular vote does not matter and they will decide who becomes the the nominee. Video includes comments by Roger Stone former head of Trump campaign:
Video 6:14:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0whmVDorbw
I believe Utah is a caucus state so Cruz will probably win.
The early spin was that Cruz won in closed primaries and Trump won in open. But they were lying. Cruz wins in caucuses and Trump wins in primaries. Other than his home state of Texas (where 56% voted against him) and border state of Oklahoma, Cruz is 0 for 18 in primary states where voters vote.
Big difference.
Oh heck, they are already talking about throwing out the whole rule book for something, “simpler!”
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