Posted on 03/18/2016 12:44:39 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The new Emerson College poll for New York provides some good news for Donald Trump — for now, anyway. With more than five weeks to go before the Empire State’s primary, Trump trounces Ted Cruz for the state’s 95 delegates by more than 50 points, 64/12, with John Kasich only getting 1% despite his big win in Ohio. That puts Trump well over the 50% threshold for winner-take-all allocation, while leaving Cruz and Kasich well below the 20% threshold for any allocation in the event of a plurality. Trump, the home-state candidate, also gets the most favorable marks in the GOP field, +48 against Cruz’ +8 and Kasich’s +20. The small sample of 298 likely Republican primary voters leaves the margin of error at 5.6%, but with gaps like these, the MoE is an afterthought.
However, when it comes to the general election, the news looks worse — much worse, in fact, for the argument that Trump will expand the GOP map:
Looking ahead to the general election, the two Democrats do equally well in a head-to-head matchup with Trump. Clinton (55% to 36%) and Sanders (53% to 36%) lead the reality show star by 19 and 17 points, respectively, while Cruz loses to Clinton by 31 points (61% to 30%).
The MoE on the full survey is a much more reasonable 3.5% on a sample of 768 likely general-election voters, so these numbers are a little more solid. The only bright spot for Trump in the general-election numbers is that Cruz does worse at 61/30, but that’s a cold comfort in a general election, where Electoral College votes are winner-take-all.
Furthermore, these numbers are almost exactly the same as two successive Siena polls got in the past two months, surveys with even larger sample sizes and a traditional live-call model. In February, the race was 57/32 Clinton, and two weeks ago Siena had it at 57/34. That’s close to the margin by which Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney in 2012 (62/36). All three polls show no upside for Republicans by having Trump on the ticket, not even with New York being his home state and the base of his business operations. Clinton may be underperforming Obama, but not by much.
Of course, the general election is still seven-plus months away, but that would only matter if New Yorkers hadn’t gotten to know Donald Trump well (or Hillary Clinton, for that matter) before now. Trump’s ubiquitous in New York, though, and voters there know him better than voters in most other states, with the possible exception of Florida — where Trump actually looks more competitive, but where Republicans have been much more competitive in presidential elections anyway. Romney only lost Florida by a percentage point, getting to 49%, while the RCP average of head-to-head polling there has Trump down 2.2 points … and Trump going no higher than 47% in any of them.
Given this lack of change over Romney’s 2012 performance in New York, where’s the evidence that Trump expands the map? If at this point Trump can’t get to 40% in his home state in head-to-head polling, what makes anyone think that Trump could beat Hillary in California or Massachusetts, or even in Pennsylvania or Michigan? The theory that Trump expands the Republican general-election map and provides a new path to 270 has no evidence supporting it. Right now, it looks like pure fantasy.
This is the same poll that showed Trump up over Cruz by 52 points. So we can ignore that part of the poll as propaganda too, right?
I want to know how Ted Cruz favors in these same polls, how does Cruz match up with Clinton in Michigan, PA, Ohio, Florida, Virginia
this map show why Trump is going to be competitive in some states that D’s have been taking for granted.
neither the Democrats or GOPe have any credibility talking about a manufacturing revival, but Trump sure does.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rust_Belt#/media/File:Total_mfctrg_jobs_change_54-02.png
Well Cruz finished 3rd in FL and OH so he’s quite unlikely to beat Hillary there in Nov. At least that’s my simple evaluation.
Talk about living in a fantasy world. Because Trump does a little bit better in his HOME STATE against a very weak Dem candidate than the last 2 GOP presidents did in a state that was NOT their home state against a STRONGER Dem candidate, you somehow think he could translate that advantage across the country? I think we are being a bit delusional.
How trustworthy is an Emerson College poll?
Good write up.
I don’t disagree.
Are you paying any attention whatsoever to Trump’s position papers or his stated positions on anything?
New York State was about 70% non-Hispanic white in 1984; today it's about 55%.
What a shock. Remove the sleaze factor as an issue from the campaign, and voila, Rotten wins!
You are.
I am a Cruz supporter. I am also originally from Connecticut and have spent plenty of time in both NYC and upstate NY.
Both polls are likely off, by a lot. Trump will win the Republican primary handily, but not by 50+ points.
More importantly, HRC will have to fight for NY and still might lose it.
We are looking at lower minority turnout this year, but stronger turnout among the blue collar folks in Armonk, Buffalo and Rochester that have lost so many operations. These areas are more like Ohio or the middle of Pennsylvania than NYC.
I know nothing of Emerson’s poling history. I would be suspicious of their modeling.
If Trump’s 25% take of the black vote holds, it’s game over in NY state.
I pray I’m wrong.
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You are.
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Wow, Trump’s supporters can now answer prayers in His name.
Perhaps Trump (Blessed is his name) really is a messiah.
I see the new meme form the squish Establishment types. As soon as Trump seals the nomination it will be “Trump can’t beat Hillary” 7/24 all day long.
Well, numbers are numbers, whether you like what they suggest or not. You’re entitled to your own opinions, but not your own facts.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8890774
LIBERAL university Emerson.
So Cruz can’t beat her either..what we need is a Trump/Cruz ticket, I know I know will never happen but hey nothing wrong with dreaming
Wasn’t Carter something like 30 or 40 points up back then? LOL!
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