OK, but I haven’t seen any polling from California other than one old poll.
And I will quibble. Silver gave him 81? That’s less than half of the loaf.
Silver’s bias is that Trump’s base is less-educated whites and the very religious. I see that often in media “analyses.” It is meant as a class-based put down. If Trump were a Dem it would be “the working man” and “the little guy” and etc. So he’s shown his angle and that likely taints his California projections.
My guess (because that is all this is at this point) is DJT gets close to two-thirds of the Congressional Districts and wins the state-wide 10.
That’s my bet. I will check back in June. You will owe me.
I won’t owe you because I totally agree with you. 2/3 plus the 10 statewide = 116. Seems very doable. I was just saying 81, although low, was more reasonable than the projections that Trump would take all 172. I wonder if the sites misunderstood the WTA rules, which is why I asked the question.