Posted on 03/18/2016 2:30:28 PM PDT by 11th_VA
Link only
Repeal The 17th wrote:
“From the article:
“The Alaska Republican party has awarded 14 delegates each
to Ted Cruz and Donald Trump after Marco Rubio suspended
his campaign earlier this week.”
“Initially Cruz was awarded 12 delegates, Trump, 11 and Rubio, five.”
-
This takes a “win” away from Ted Cruz and makes Alaska a tie.”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3410972/posts?page=5#5
That means they are considering “suspended” to mean “dropped out” -if- it happened before that particular state’s convention.
Question:
Any other states in this situation?
I’m already tired of winning
LOL! Well, Trump did warn you.
He will win Arizona NY NJ and Indiana (59) also PA and other new-England states. It when not if at this point, but when
Has anyone heard that PA will not have bound delegates, even on the first ballot?
That would mean the primary election there is for nothing, why even bother. I saw it mentioned in a comment somewhere but it had no link to proof.
If this is true, then it may be the method they use to stop Trump and Cruz. Just make a bunch of states have no committed delegates, period. They all become de facto super delegates and the (R)epublicrat party hacks take off the mask showing that they are truly (D)ummycrats underneath.
Yes, 538 has trump at 695 which includes an extra 3 from reallocation of Alaska, plus 1 from a Wyoming partial. This reflects only 37 for MO, which I thought would be 42. I don’t know how final that is. Based on their target of 719 for the completed states, Trump is 97% of his target. That target assumed Trump would win Ohio’s 66 delegates, but that he would have collected 42 fewer delegates in various other states where he exceeded expectations.
I support Trump, but the more I think about this delegate system the more I hate it!
Cruz supporters will probably try to be good sports about this because they need to play the delegate game. But it has to stick in their craws.
It has never been more obvious that the game is rigged. On the other hand, if those delegates went to the convention unassigned, can you imagine what the shenanigans and intimidation would be like?
I'm actually praying that sane folks prevail and don't stop Trump from a first round victory. Those protestors? If they prevail and sway the nomination, they're going to use these tactics against all 'pubs in Novemeber. We won't be safe anywhere. I really don't think I'm exaggerating.
Here's a clue: In Cleveland, the city very wisely spent a lot of their security allotment on riot gear. The crazies are staging a protest today, objecting to the purchase! Their contention is they don't want a militarized police force at the convention!
‘On the other hand, if those delegates went to the convention unassigned, can you imagine what the shenanigans and intimidation would be like?’
Let us break their chains and let loose the delegates! Free them to amuse Kasich and his children. It will be exciting. The GOP-e could take pointers from ‘Six-Flip’ Hillary.
Hahaha So Cruz’s one delegate lead out of Alaska just became a wash.
But, really he can win....
Rolling eyes.
... the more I think about this delegate system the more I hate it!
I'm with you.
They should KISS, keep it simple, mirror the electoral college and make them WTA like the 48 states and DC ( the other two, ME and NE are idiotic ). The states are weighted according to population matching the electoral college, the winner gets the full slate of committed delegates. Details for ties and other oddball situations can be hammered out with a little more thought.
This current unbelievable insanely complicated mess is nothing but busy-work engineered by the Party bureaucrats to keep their jobs year-round and have meetings and cocktail parties and keep avenues open for payola, shenanigans and hanky-panky.
This is probably another reason they hate Trump. He is the opposite of a busy-work bureaucrat. He is more of an efficiency obsessive compulsive. My guess is that if it were up to him he'd strip the machine down to bare bones.
I said last summer that my dream scenario was him getting Sarah Palin installed as RNC chairman and task her with cleaning out that cesspool. Then we could hang suicide nets around all the RNC offices and buildings and set up cameras.
NOTE: the suicide nets are optional.
I will trust, to some degree, Nate Silver’s numbers, as he is not a Trump fan. He tweeted a photo of Trump’s plane taking off while his plane was waiting in line, and captioned it with an unhappy remark.
Bill Still on youtube has a recent video breaking down the campaign’s tweeted path to 1238 (yes, +1) from Trump’s organization. It breaks things down month by month, state by state, winner take all and proportional. I will keep track of both.
All the states should do this instead of delegates being held for ransom by the losers.
I agree there’s nothing sacred about Nate Sliver’s projected ‘path to 1237’.
I just thought it is a pretty cool presentation. It has some limitations, so I copied and pasted the data into a spreadsheet and tweaked it a little, so I can play around with scenarios and calculate what percent of remaining delegates Cruz or Trump will need to reach 1237. As of today Kasich needs 109%, Cruz needs 81% and Trump needs 54%. After Tuesday, I think pretty much unchanged, with a slight shift in Trump’s favor.
Agreed. Trump will get 58 out of 98 Tuesday and stay on pace.
There will be at least several hundred uncommitted and released delegates that will vote. Remaining primaries are not the only source of delegate votes that can be won.
You don’t think he’ll get any of Utah’s 40? Nate Silver had him picking up 9 and also 3 of American Samoa’s 12. So Trump would get 70 of 110, for a slight improvement (if Silver is right).
To balance Nat Silver (who is unpopular in soccerdom for picking Brazil over Germany in the World Cup, massively wrong) here is a link to Bill Still’s youtube rundown of a Trump tweet of “the path.” You mentioned spread sheets. This is the publicly announced spreadsheet from Trump.
At the end mention is made of 168 unpledged delegates (similar to the Dem’s “superdelegates”?).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTVUV5l5fdw
Thanks, that’s a good summary. One thing I don’t understand about Silver’s prediction, is he’s showing California split where other sites show it as WTA. Do you know who is correct? If California is truly WTA, that could really seal the deal for Trump.
It is winner-take-all by Congressional District. Three delegates to a district, and then 10 statewide delegates. So not a pure winner-take-all.
Three are also selected by the state party from their highest ranks.
The candidates select the delegates, not the party, which is a relief.
Possibly helpful link:
https://www.cagop.org/national-delegation/
Ok, so it seems a bit of a stretch to think Trump would win all 172. I think Silver’s guess of 81 seems more reasonable.
OK, but I haven’t seen any polling from California other than one old poll.
And I will quibble. Silver gave him 81? That’s less than half of the loaf.
Silver’s bias is that Trump’s base is less-educated whites and the very religious. I see that often in media “analyses.” It is meant as a class-based put down. If Trump were a Dem it would be “the working man” and “the little guy” and etc. So he’s shown his angle and that likely taints his California projections.
My guess (because that is all this is at this point) is DJT gets close to two-thirds of the Congressional Districts and wins the state-wide 10.
That’s my bet. I will check back in June. You will owe me.
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