Posted on 03/18/2016 7:03:37 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
No, I don't think he will -- not the nomination, not the presidency. But since that's what just about everyone thinks, let's play around a little and try to imagine how Cruz could at least imitate Barry Goldwater and become the G.O.P. nominee. Here's The Federalist's Ben Domenech with three reasons why the conventional wisdom on Cruz might be wrong:
First: Ted Cruz matches up with the activist base better than any other significant candidate in a long time. I don't think people outside of that base really understand how powerful Cruz's appeal is to the populist energized conservative voter, which is of course just a faction of the right, but is a sizable faction ... And he doesn't just match up with them on policy, he matches up with their brashness, their yearning for someone who loves the taste of blood in his mouth ...
Second: To the degree that this is a nomination battle about who has done the most to fight the Obama administration about two key issues - amnesty and Obamacare - Ted Cruz can claim that mantle and beat his opponents over the head with their stances on these topics. We underestimate how going soft on both of these issues is going to play in the GOP primary this cycle, particularly in the early going. As I've noted before, most of the candidates this time around are in roughly the same position on immigration: either full throatedly in favor of reform or tepidly in favor of it. But there is no indication that the position of the party base is at all moderated compared to 2012, and Obama's approach to executive amnesty has made the issue all the more toxic. Cruz can argue that his only fault is boldness....
(Excerpt) Read more at douthat.blogs.nytimes.com ...
No, hes not going to win directly or by convention.
Let’s hope not ...
Not by the numbers.
He got 14% in Ohio.
He aligned with Romney show screwed over our Governor.
Romney lost Ohio.
GOPe will lose Ohio if Cruz or Romney are on the ticket.
Florida will also go blue if anybody but Trump is on the ticket.
Not really hard to see how this plays out.
Bush43 won Florida. Are you saying he’s more conservative than Cruz?
It’s impossible for him to win the nomination outright.
If the question is whether he could win the general, I think he could. He or Trump could.
No it’s not. The delegates are still there, uncommitted.
Ross....yes, it is possible, but unlikely.
With under half of the possible delegates allocated, Trump is a few percentage points over half of the delegates needed and the current trajectory. The odds of Cruz winning are very long indeed.
Not in a contest ruled by the laws of simple arithmetic.
Depending on who you ask, Ted needs to win 78% or north, of all the remaining delegates to, clinch the nomination fair and square.
That’s not even close to being doable.
I sure hope not. Vote Trump.
I thought Trump was Goldwater? Do they all get a shot at that title?
I bet Kasichs dad once delivered a letter from Goldwater
The only way he could possibly reach 1237 would be if Trump dropped out.
You do realize we live in a different time, right?
Bush43 would not get Florida today.
Not a chance.
“Conservative” has been hijacked. People are no longer voting along party lines. This is an issues-based campaign.
They’ve compared Cruz to McCarthy, the Zodiac Killer, the lead singer of Stryper, Grandpa Munster....
Cruz (26.7) has finally surpassed Carson’s (24.8) RCP national average high from November. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html
Really? Wow. Who is going to win the Sweet Sixteen?
I’ll be calling on you for predictions in the future, since you know the future.
He can not win legitimately, he can’t win 87% of the remaining delegates, so being the sleazeball he is, he is hoping the GOPe will hand it to him if he makes the right promises. Promise number 1# Amnesty.
He’s not going to be the nominee. He’ll never get enough delegates to win outright. It’s impossible. And in any floor fight he’s already shown us what he’s going to do....roll over and let the GOP establishment nominate whoever they darn well want IF Trump doesn’t have enough delegates...and maybe even if he does have enough delegates. But rest assured Teddy is angling for another job...probably Supreme court justice....which he will be promised whether or not Hillary or whomever wins. The fix is in. And if Clinton appoints him to the court he’s going to do and vote EXACTLY how the establishment wants him to. He’ll be another John Roberts.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.