Posted on 03/30/2016 4:10:53 PM PDT by afraidfortherepublic
MADISON, Wis. - Donald Trump just walked into a political buzz saw in Wisconsin.
The latest Marquette Law School poll, released Wednesday, just six days before the Badger State votes in the presidential primary election, shows Texas Sen. Ted Cruz with a 10 percent lead over the billionaire "anti-establishment" Trump.
But what the numbers might underscore more than anything is most conservatives in Wisconsin like Gov. Scott Walker, and a sizable majority don’t care for Donald Trump.
"Walker has an 80 percent approval level among GOP primary likely voters, with just 17 percent disapproving. That is strong support within the party," said Marquette Law School public policy professor Charles Franklin, who conducted the poll.
Trump's Walker bashing on conservative talk radio and at rallies this week probably didn't help his cause, although the poll was conducted March 24-28, before the candidates descended on Wisconsin full force in advance of the April 5 primary.
Cruz picked up support from 40 percent of likely voters to 30 percent for Trump, with 21 percent for Ohio Gov. John Kasich, according to the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.8 percentage points.
On the Democrat side, Bernie Sanders holds a 49 percent to 45 percent edge over Hillary Clinton among likely voters in the Wisconsin Democratic Party primary. That survey, however, has an error rate of plus or minus 6.3 percentage points.
And despite the salacious headlines of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and other mainstream news outlets, Supreme Court Justice Rebecca Bradley holds a 5-percentage point advantage in her race against appeals court Judge JoAnne Kloppenburg, at 41 percent to 36 percent. The number of undecided voters is significantly higher, at 18 percent, in a poll with a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.
Bradley's lead has only widened since a left-wing group pushed a story about anti-gay columns Bradley wrote while a college student and the Journal Sentinel published a misleading piece accusing Bradley of an extramarital affair.
After Walker gave his endorsement to Cruz Tuesday, Trump seemed to go back on the attack against his former political opponent. During Walker's short-lived presidential run, Trump went after the Republican governor on his handling of the economy, firing off faulty data to make his case that Wisconsin's economy was failing. The billionaire's assertions were shot down as erroneous at best, but after Walker announced his support for Trump’s bitter rival, Trump regurgitated the same false talking points on the airwaves and at rallies.
The latest Marquette poll numbers suggest a validation among Republicans for all things Scott Walker and a repudiation for all things not Scott Walker.
"Walker's support among Republicans still is very high... They still think he’s doing a good job," said Charles Jacobs, political science professor at St. Norbert College. "There is a miscalculation there if (Trump) thinks Wisconsin Republican voters have thrown Walker under the bus and he's done. Republicans still like him. They want him to run for a third term."
Jacobs attended the Trump rally at St. Norbert Wednesday, where at one point Trump began giving the approximately 200 students on hand a lecture on how to be successful in life.
Why would Trump want to pick a fight with Walker? That's The Donald, pundits say. The anti-establishment candidate persona lives on, even to the detriment of Trump's campaign.
Among likely Republican primary voters, 23 percent say they are very uncomfortable with the idea of Trump as president. Another 14 percent say the same for Cruz, while 5 percent are very uncomfortable with Kasich.
Trump's act might just be played out in the Badger State, Jacobs said, adding that he was a bit surprised by Cruz’s double-digit lead.
"What we have been seeing over the last several weeks is some of what is attractive about Trump might be growing a bit stale," he said. "He constantly has to outdo himself. He's like the showy kid in elementary school who one day blows milk through his nose and the next day has to find something new to do."
Could Wisconsin be Trump's political Waterloo? Perhaps. But like everything else in this contest, it's a numbers game.
"Trump gets 44 percent from those who disapprove of Scott Walker, and just 27 percent among those who do," Franklin said. "So maybe he knows his base and is playing to it."
That's probably not enough to win Wisconsin, but it has and may well play somewhere else, as the delegate chase moves on after next Tuesday.
It means absolutely zilch. All of these polls in WI are meaningless. Can't wait for next Tuesday, because right after work I'm heading straight to the voting booth and vote for Trump.
I’ve been in support of Trump from the beginning, but he is really screwing up lately. It seems like everyday he says something more stupid then he did the day before.
I have to wait for April 26. Vote often.
I found your crack pipe.
“Dubya, the “compassionate conservative” won both of those states, but a stalwart conservative can’t?
Back in the day Reagan won California, times have changed.
Polls show Cruz way behind in both states. If I remember correctly the “Dubya” FL vote was so close the Supreme court has to decide that race.
“Sure you’re at the right website?”
Been here since the beginning.
He's been on hiatus over Easter. Are you sure you're not getting Gaslighted by the MSM.
The previous Optimus poll was 6182 likely voters: 31% Trump, 27% Cruz, with 1.1 point margin of error.
Excellent point.
Explain to us how Ted gets to 1237...Northeast is coming up.
I’m sure Jim will be glad for your donation...
Though polling overall has been a little screwed up...
No one has overcome a 10 % lead...not even your messiah..
WI is tailored-made for Trump. Walker and the GOP legislature has pissed away their power. Even during the union fight in 2011, Walker didn't go for the jugular.
Trump’s punish women statement today end his campaign.... He’ll lose NY
“I found your crack pipe.”
Noob.
“I’ve been in support of Trump from the beginning, but he is really screwing up lately.”
Agree, he did not have a good week.
He’s finished #263,343,683,455.
Trump started campaign yesterday, these polls are 2 days old. Things will change and sample is small.
CNN townhall was yesterday. Number will change.
Yes. Buyers remorse is spreading through the electorate with Trump’s immature behavior. Bet lots of folks wish Walker was still running.
After reading Scott Walkers face book page remarks I would not put a lot into the Walker endorcement of Cruz. It really doesn’t look like his followers are Lying Cruz fans. They are saying Lying Cruz not Cruz. The NE story has legs and most are bashing Cruz. A couple are mad and have moved because of losing their jobs. Those people are backing Trump. Who knows how it will play out by next week? One would think Cruz will do well.
I know he just had a flurry of events over the past two days but I'm hoping that he adds more events quickly. Only five days left and this is going to require an all-out effort.
Does anybody in WI know if Trump is running advertising there?
Actually, my "Messiah" did. In SC, where he was supposed to be beaten like a rented mule.
February 2016 Scott Walkers approval ratings were hovering below 40%. Now it is 80%? That is some jump in less than a month. Ryan’s approval ratings are 77%? Hmmm
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