Posted on 03/31/2016 11:58:17 AM PDT by John W
Donald Trump loves to brag that he's ahead of Hillary Clinton in the polls. "I beat Hillary Clinton in many polls," he repeatedly insisted at a debate earlier this month.
Here on planet Earth, that isn't true or even close to true. In 33 general election polls tracked by HuffPost Pollster over the past two months, Trump has led Clinton in just one.
Trump now trails Clinton by 9 points in the HuffPost Pollster polling average and by 11.2 points in RealClearPolitics' average — and he's behind Bernie Sanders by even more in both. Any of these showings from Trump would be the weakest performance from a major party nominee in the past 20 years.
The trendlines for the billionaire are terrible too. Back during the waning months of 2015, he regularly came within a few points of both Clinton and Sanders. But historically, polls conducted so far in advance have been essentially meaningless.
Crucially, Trump's decline has happened just when these polls actually start to mean something. In newer polls, Trump almost never comes close to either Clinton or Sanders anymore. And in past races, changes in general election polling that have occurred during this period of the campaign have often ended up sticking.
"Were this a few months ago, I'd say, 'What's the big deal?'" says Christopher Wlezien, a political science professor at the University of Texas. "But polls today are much more meaningful than they were 90 days ago. And the polls today are much less favorable for Trump."
(Excerpt) Read more at vox.com ...
Oh well then. I guess we don’t need to bother with an election.
Only polls showing trump winning are accepted by trump supporters.
HuffPo Poll. Yep, out of all the invalid polls, which all are, the HuffPo Poll is near the top of the list of most odious.
Vox quoting an RCP poll? Lol. Sure.
You wish
One thing Trump has going for him if he is the Nominee..
Sanders won’t be the one he has to compete with.
I wouldn’t be overly concerned about polls this far out, except that Trump has completely botched the past two months. He has utterly alienated everyone and has done his best to give everyone ammo to use against him. He’s also shown a complete lack of depth of knowledge on issue after issue. His core support is strong, but the rest has cratered. Not too optimistic, especially when the Clinton machine ramps up.
Take a look at RCP averages: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html
Trump is +10.4 average over seven current polls.
That's actually great news for Donald Trump.
But let's not get in the way of a propaganda campaign...
Do you get the idea that I think cruz is pond scum? It's worse than that.
Let’s wait until about September, when Trump will be giving the American public an education on Hillary, hitting her with everything from Whitewater to Vince Foster to Benghazi. We’ll see how the polls look then.
Vox? I find better news in my toilet.
Recent headlines from Vox:
Donald Trump’s rise is a scary moment in America
The rise of American authoritarianism
Hillary Clinton wants to end the loophole that lets disabled workers earn less than minimum wage
Everyone — even pro-lifers — hated Donald Trump’s abortion comments
Trump’s comments on Japanese nukes are worrisome — even by Trump standards
I seem to remember reading that Reagan trailed Carter at this point by about 25 points. How did that work out for the dems, who had actually opened champagne when Reagan got the nomination.
I think these polls are referring to his steady erosion nationally, losing badly to Clinton in the general, rather than relative to his primary opponents.
HuffPo Poll. Yep, out of all the invalid polls, which all are, the HuffPo Poll is near the top of the list of most odious.
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I gather we were not seeing a huffpo poll at all, if the article is accurate, we are seeing the results of the polls that huffpo tracks.
Some of which have been loved by Trump supporters, as long as they were showing donald on top.
Now they are all crap.
Watch the press coverage of Trump dry up at that point. He will need a shortwave radio or maybe buy a network.
Oh, but we should pay attention to some HuffPoo concern troll junk instead of RCP! /SARC
Hee hee...not to mention they quote a TU prof, on this stink piece. (Univ of TX is one of the most lib colleges there is.)
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