I think any Rep would have lost given the state of the country after the two Nixon/Ford terms. Ford did have the incumbent's advantage, which may have made him a stronger candidate than Reagan. Carter swept the South except for VA, Carter won Texas and Ford won CA, OR, and WA. Amazing how things have changed electorally.
Without Carter, Iranian sponsored terror may never have happened. Hindsight is always 20/20, but to suggest that Cruz is somehow behaving differently than Reagan in ‘76 is a pretty tough argument to make given what we know to be true during that time.
It was a two man race in 1976 and much closer. Trump is beating Cruz fairly handily. Cruz is a sitting senator and part of the Washington political class. Reagan was more of an outsider despite being a two term governor. Different times, different personalities.
I had an opportunity to meet Ford in Greece while I was assisting him in getting on to a cruise ship in the early nineties. We had a pleasant one-on-one 30 minute conversation talking about everything and anything. Nice guy. Impressive war record and athletic career. I have a personally inscribed picture with him.
It is truly amazing how the electoral map has changed in that time frame. But the '76 election was a lot closer than you seem to think. Just 5,000 more votes in Ohio and 4,000 votes in Hawaii would have elected Ford. Exit polling showed Ford was punished significantly for the pardon and for the many blunders he made during the campaign. No way of knowing if Reagan would have done the same, but there is no doubt that Reagan would have been the better candidate and would have performed better in the south.
It was a two man race in 1976 and much closer. Trump is beating Cruz fairly handily.
Which is why I asked what the right spread is in your mind for awarding this to Trump even if he doesn't get to 1237. The rules say otherwise, but being practical and taking public perception into consideration, it is much harder to deny Trump the nomination if he is just 50 delegates away from the magic number than 250. He'd better get his act together on the ground, however, or he's going to get outplayed in a situation where every delegate could count - big time.
I never met Gerald Ford but I did spend several weekends partying with Susan and her friends in Georgetown. She was pretty wild, as were her friends. Her dad seemed like a nice enough guy - very likable. I didn't like his politics even when I was a kid. Too much country club squishiness. If only Goldwater had won.....!!