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Fallout: Donald Trump Will Fall 50-100 Delegates Short of 1,237 Needed to Clinch Nomination
Breitbart.com ^ | 6 Apr 2016 | Mike Flynn & Michael Patrick Leahy

Posted on 04/07/2016 6:10:31 AM PDT by Rockitz

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’s overwhelming victory in Wisconsin on Tuesday makes it all but impossible for GOP frontrunner Donald Trump to win the 1,237 delegates he needs to secure the nomination ahead of the RNC convention in Cleveland.

Trump currently leads the GOP field with 743 delegates. He would need to win 58.9 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to obtain the simple majority necessary.

A number of the states remaining award delegates proportionally. The bulk of delegates in one critical upcoming state, Pennsylvania, aren’t officially bound to any candidate. The fight for California’s massive 172 delegates will be fought largely in each of the state’s 54 Congressional Districts.

As a result, Breitbart News estimates that Donald Trump will end the primary portion of the nomination fight with 1164 delegates, 74 short of the 1,237 delegates necessary to win the nomination on the first ballot. This estimate assumes Trump’s performance in upcoming contests is consistent with the results prior to Wisconsin.

In other words, it is a static estimate, assuming no great change in the trajectory, tone, or focus of the campaigns. It isn’t based on any future missteps, like those experienced by the Trump campaign ahead of the Wisconsin primary. Our assumption is, in many respects, the most optimistic for the Trump campaign. Because of this, it underscores the steep challenge Donald Trump faces heading into the 4th Quarter of the primary season.

(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bs; cruz2016; dontcountonit; michaelpatrickleahy; mikeflynn; ntsa; trump; trump2016
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To: HombreSecreto
I think Kasich is the better choice here as he can deliver Ohio. Trump already is in strong position for Florida. Also Gang of 8 Rubio is probably a net loser (whatever he gets from Hispanics he’ll lose from whites). Kasich will also help in Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa three states that the Democrats can’t afford to lose. Even if the Dems still win those, forcing them to spend $$$ in states like these spreads their resources even thinner.

Kasich would be a smart choice for VP to win the general. It MIGHT be the only thing that can stop the Dems. Good analysis, I think.
81 posted on 04/07/2016 6:54:30 AM PDT by baltimorepoet
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To: Rockitz

It will be a phyrric victory if he does i will NEVER vote for the gay Cuban Lothario.


82 posted on 04/07/2016 6:54:33 AM PDT by ichabod1 (Off the NWO)
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To: baltimorepoet
Not sure 600,000 dead Americans was a positive outcome from the 1860 election.

But 4,000,000 Americans freed from slavery was.

83 posted on 04/07/2016 6:55:18 AM PDT by Bruce Campbells Chin
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To: Wright Wing

I would offer the VP to Rubio. He bowed out gracefully and helps take Florida and Virginia. Cruz and Kasich I would dump for trying to sabotage me.


84 posted on 04/07/2016 6:55:32 AM PDT by ez ("Abashed the devil stood and felt how awful goodness is..." - Milton)
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To: manc

One:One

No crap. Just issues.

Savage or Levin could host it.

Savage would love the attention. Levin has already made the offer.

I am proposing an authentic debate. Not the crap we’ve already seen.

You need to see past the fog. But you’re not alone.


85 posted on 04/07/2016 6:55:41 AM PDT by kinsman redeemer (The real enemy seeks to devour what is good.)
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To: kinsman redeemer
Trump needs to go one-on-one with Cruz to show off his over-powering understanding of economics, the bureaucracy, world history, US history, military strategy, current events, foreign policy, his political prowess, his grasp of judicial review, and his knowledge of the US Constitution and federal law.

One on one, Trump will have a chance to make Cruz look like an idiot, everyone will see it, and Trump will waltz to victory.

C'mon Donald ... what are you waiting for? What's wrong ....

86 posted on 04/07/2016 6:56:02 AM PDT by Servant of the Cross (the Truth will set you free)
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To: baltimorepoet

Not that Lincoln had anything to do with that. The south was going to have their war no matter who was elected.


87 posted on 04/07/2016 6:56:05 AM PDT by rockrr (Everything is different now...)
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To: ichabod1
It will be a phyrric victory if he does i will NEVER vote for the gay Cuban Lothario.women. So where does the "gay" part come in?
88 posted on 04/07/2016 6:56:24 AM PDT by Bruce Campbells Chin
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To: Fai Mao

Yes I must have posted this ten times yesterday. The media is having a field day with hysterical speculation of things that will never happen.

If Trump is a few votes short and I’m not sure that will even happen he will use the 6 weeks or so between the last primary on June 7th and the convention to cut a deal with somebody most likely Kasich. Kasich has 143 delegates and that would be plenty to get the nomination on the first ballot. Trump is not going to walk into a floor fight at the convention it would be too stupid.


89 posted on 04/07/2016 6:56:33 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: lodi90

https://www.yahoo.com/news/the-republican-party-can-t-1402047670140982.html


90 posted on 04/07/2016 6:56:37 AM PDT by freeangel ( (free speech is only good until someone else doesn't like it)
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To: Rockitz

Trump needs to get his act together. If Cruz teaches him the importance of a good ground game by the end of the primaries, that will be will worth the stress when Trump has that good ground game for the November general election. Playing a casual game will not cut it against the Clinton Crime Syndicate and the far left. If Trump can’t beat Ted Cruz, he’s not ready for the general election.

Trump needs to find loyal delegates he can choose from PA and push for their selection. He needs a full slate of NJ delegates (last I heard, he didn’t have anywhere close to that), or a sweep of NJ will do no good at all, not even in the first round of voting. The same for several other states. He needs his people involved in choosing state delegates, even where he already won, so that he will get loyal delegates who are not eager to defect.

It’s Trump’s job to demonstrate that he is the master of The Art of the Deal, make the deals he needs to get the right delegates and keep them loyal, and win. He needs to “negotiate great deals” with the unbound delegates from the many states he won and even with the unbound delegates from the relatively few other states. Preferably, he should win on the first round ballot, but he needs to already be working on the second round ballot. If Trump doesn’t win the nomination, knowing at the start that this game is dealt from a crooked deck, it’s his fault. Not Cruz. Not Kasich. Trump.

Trump can win on his own - if he does this right. Trump can win easily if he coordinates with Cruz. Perhaps Trump needs to offer Cruz a great deal. I will be voting for Trump, but if Trump can’t play politics well enough to get the delegates he needs for the convention, I’d rather see Cruz as the nominee.


91 posted on 04/07/2016 6:56:39 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Somebody who agrees with me 80% of the time is a friend and ally, not a 20% traitor. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: jpsb

Rubio did well in VA which we need, FL where I am is most certainly Trump country and does not really need Rubio , but it would help.
Kasich brings OH, but that is it and he way off to the left of Trump.

Cruz if he had not took the holier than thou approach and done his dirty tricks could have been with Trump as VP, but alas that ship has sailed.


92 posted on 04/07/2016 6:56:50 AM PDT by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: austingirl

The nomination would not be “stolen” from Trump. One has to have something before it can be stolen. He hasn’t won it. If he doesn’t reach 1237, it will be an open convention and delegates will vote as they choose. They just better not choose anyone other than Cruz or Trump.

Face it, Trump was not prepared wit a ground game and a system to manage delegates. He just hired an establishment operative to do this. Behind the curve.


Face it. Cruz is already polling in 3rd place in multiple northern states. Cruz is obviously not prepared for Kasich’s non existential ground game in the Northeast. LOL.

AS the primaries have shown, there is only one viable national candidate and that is Donald Trump. All but deluded never Trumpers can see it.


93 posted on 04/07/2016 6:57:13 AM PDT by lodi90 (Clear choice for Conservatives now: TRUMP or lose)
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To: jpsb

Rubio did well in VA which we need, FL where I am is most certainly Trump country and does not really need Rubio , but it would help.
Kasich brings OH, but that is it and he way off to the left of Trump.

Cruz if he had not took the holier than thou approach and done his dirty tricks could have been with Trump as VP, but alas that ship has sailed.


94 posted on 04/07/2016 6:57:29 AM PDT by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: Rockitz

There will be no stolen delegates. Not a single one.

95 posted on 04/07/2016 6:57:32 AM PDT by McGruff (The Republican elite would rather see Hillary Clinton president than Donald Trump.)
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To: ez

I agree completely. There is one other option. Trump and Cruz need to set aside their differences and unify once one or the other is mathematically eliminated.


96 posted on 04/07/2016 6:58:25 AM PDT by Wright Wing
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To: KC Burke
On the other hand the idea of a clear defining debate assumes a debate setting that allows those important distinctions to be drawn out. There is no media that can run it that way. They are all clowns.

Precisely!

Every debate (save, perhaps one) has been designed to ridicule the candidates, make money for the network, and divide the Party (I do not identify with the RND.)

I appreciate your comment.

97 posted on 04/07/2016 6:58:48 AM PDT by kinsman redeemer (The real enemy seeks to devour what is good.)
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To: Reeses

I have no doubt the GOPe’s plan is not to win. They know they can’t without Trump and don’t want to win with Trump. You’re exactly right. So they can’t be threatened with losing to Hillary because they don’t care.


98 posted on 04/07/2016 6:58:52 AM PDT by Proudcongal (I'm supporting the American, Donald J. Trump, the people's president)
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To: lodi90
Get what? If the nom is stolen from Trump

Stolen? You mean stolen like Denver stole the Super Bowl from poor Carolina when cam Newton got squashed by the Denver defense? Stolen like that?

Rules / performance.

Get used to it.

99 posted on 04/07/2016 6:59:35 AM PDT by don-o (He will not share His glory. And He will NOT be mocked! Blessed be the Name of the Lord forever!)
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To: austingirl

Rules are great. First rule is “don’t piss off the majority of your voters”.

All other rules are secondary.


100 posted on 04/07/2016 6:59:54 AM PDT by The Toll
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