Here's the Real Clear politics count, and my workup based on it.
Here's the one from WikiPedia/Green Papers (dif sites, same tally)
Ted will essentially be out on 04/19. (numerically)
Here's the Real Clear politics count, and my workup based on it.
Here's the one from WikiPedia/Green Papers (dif sites, same tally)
Ted will essentially be out on 04/19. (numerically)
All this is assuming Trump will win in California and overwhelm in NY. Don’t bet on either
If Trump gets 1237, he will have won it fair and square, and I would be 100% opposed to any attempt to deny him the nomination.
Ted will essentially be out on 04/19. (numerically)
*********
Trump is self funding, so if he were numerically out of it, like Ted will be shortly, he’d bail. As a creature of PAC/special interest money, Ted will carry on ensuring a devastating convention battle. I fail to see how his candidacy, once eliminated, isn’t acting at the behest of the GOPe.
By my count it’s even worse than THAT for Cruz
Mine is based on fivethirtyeight tracker which I think is a little better, in part because real clear politics is giving Cruz 10 ND delegates which I believe are unbound, and therefore unavailable. Using 538’s Cruz total of 505 (same as your Wikipedia total, I have Cruz needing 732.
Also, the available delegates remaining for RCP includes 60 unbound delegates. These are not available, so I’m saying there are only 763 left, and Cruz needs 96%.
Trump (or Kasich) need only win 32 more delegates to eliminate Cruz.
At the latest Cruz will be a spoiler by April 26th. At that point Trump starts calling him a spoiler and beating the drum for Cruz to get out. Most people like to think their vote counts so I would look for Cruz’s campaign to begin to crumble at that point. People like to vote for a winner.