I agree; Cruz will not get 1,237 before the convention. I disagree that he needs to. Months ago, I told myself the polls were lying. There couldn’t be this many GOP voters supporting Trump. I have accepted the polls are not lying. However, it’s these same polls which consistently say Cruz would outperform Trump in the general election. So, I disagree that Cruz can’t win in November, but Trump can. If Trump can, so can Cruz.
I disagree that Cruz could beat Hillary in the election, simply because if he could gather votes the way he will need to he would be ahead of Trump now. For some reason Cruz has a theoretical support that does not translate to votes.
If Cruz could get to 1237 he “might” be more electable than Trump, but the fact is he cannot.
If Cruz ends up being the nominee by some miracle of a brokered convention even many of those that would have voted for him in other circumstances will not because they will feel he did not win it honestly- whether it is all “by the rules” or not.
A brokered convention at this point will have a scorched earth effect. If Cruz emerges as the nominee he will be damaged goods at that point. If there is a brokered convention and Trump ends up being the nominee it will have a negative impact on him as well so there will be no true “winner” from that scenario.
This is why I say Cruz and his supporters need to be realistic about what they are fighting for at this point. It is short sighted for them to have the goal of a brokered convention. If they look long and hard at what the result of a brokered convention would really be, they would not want one.
At this point Cruz could still bow out gracefully and live to fight another day- another run at President would be realistic for him. If he fights to the bitter end I think he will lose more support than he would gain, which could very well end his political career.