Republicans Think They’ll Outfox Trump? Think Again

The Daily Beast ^ | 04/18/2016 | Adam Goodman

[MaxistheBest]

If there’s one thing Trump knows better than just about anybody, it’s how to make a deal. It’s a skill that’ll come in handy in Cleveland.

As pundits and political prophets focus on deciphering the vagaries of “delegate math” leading into July’s Republican convention in Cleveland—how many delegates do you need, how do you secure them, how do you keep them—stories abound about how the party establishment is plotting to deny Donald Trump the nomination.

The prevailing theory is that the grand poobahs of party discipline will pursue a three-step strategy. First, they’ll use Ted Cruz as their Trojan horse to ensure Trump falls short of the 1,237 delegates needed on the first ballot. Then they’ll pivot to stop Cruz from emerging on the second and third ballots. And finally, they’ll implant their own choice as the consensus unifier—John Kasich or Marco Rubio or Scott Walker, now that Paul Ryan has demurred.

There’s just one little problem with this scenario: Donald Trump gets it. He knows the cabal is laying in wait to use the soon-to-be-infamous rule 40(b)—a nominee must have the majority of voting delegates in at least eight states—to validate the coup despite 16 million voters who by then would have pulled the Trump lever over the others.

[LS]

Trump already has met Rule 40.

Next?

[Bon mots]

[CA Conservative]

Actually, according to the way Rule 40b is written, it would be possible (not likely, but possible as the rule is written) that Trump could fail to have his name placed in nomination. The rule is not that you have to win a majority of bound delegates in 8 states. The rule is that you have to get a majority of the delegates in 8 states to sign a statement of support for you before each ballot. And just because a delegate is bound to a particular candidate for the ballot doesn't mean they are obliged to sign the statement of support for that candidate.

So it would be possible, if Cruz or Kasich were to get a majority or even a plurality of the delegate spots filled with their supporters in the states where Trump has a majority of bound delegates, that Trump might not be able to get majority support from 8 states to get his name placed in nomination... as I said, I don't think it likely, but the rules would allow it.

[Starboard]

Trump already has met Rule 40.

**************
It will probably change.

[House Atreides]

So the writer thinks the “fox” Trump will make a deal with Cruz? Nah, it’s NOT gonna happen-—several hundred “lyin’ Teds” too many.

[JBW1949]

here’s the thing...The GOPe are used to “handling” politicians...They know how to coerce and bend politicians to their certain satisfaction...

Trump isn’t a politician...They are going to be steamrolled by Trump....

[kik5150]

Trump is such a genius deal maker yet can’t even figure out the primary system and resorts to cheating claims. If Trump’s IQ matches his verbal skills it is about 85.

[tennmountainman]

With Trump talking about the rigging process, he has the GOP
in a vice grip. It won’t be less painful for the GOP anytime soon.
The GOPe’s are squirming like worms.

[Nervous Tick]

Author is counting on Cruz boosting Trump by allying with him.

Cruz is poised to win all the marbles on Ballot #2. What is Ted’s motivation to make a deal with Trump?

[Sacajaweau]

The bound delegates and their statement are not separate. The statement is the acknowledgement in writing.

[Let's Roll]

BTTT

[Nervous Tick]

>> he has the GOP in a vice [sic] grip

What is the nature of the vise grip? I don’t see it. Sounds like it’s the other way around.

[Sacajaweau]

I’m livid. I’m in upstate NY. The polls don’t open until noon....but that’s only county wide.

[4rcane]

what about cruz? Does he met rule 40

[CA Conservative]

The bound delegates and their statement are not separate.

Yes they are. There is nothing in the rule to require that a bound delegate sign the statement of support for the nomination. Go and read the rule if you don't believe me.

[4rcane]

Cruz will need to find 700 delegates to switch. Where will he find that? Its not an easy task

[Mollypitcher1]

Yup. AND everybody seems to forget that Trump is making his deal with the AMERICAN people! Remember us? We’re the ones who will revolt and crush the “party” for all time.

[vette6387]

“If Trump’s IQ matches his verbal skills it is about 85.”

I saw a chsrt back when there were 15 candidates that assessed the level each candidate was using to communicate with the voters. Trump was at the very bottom using 6th grade level speeches. Looks like he found the level of intellect of the bulk of the country. He must have picked up on the “Watters World” man on the streen interviews which show the deplorable state of the reasoning abilities of our citizenry. Trump had it figured out from the getgo. Go Trump!

[Nervous Tick]

>> what about cruz? Does he met rule 40

I’m pretty sure both Trump and Cruz can meet Rule 40 for at least two or three ballots.

Kasich, probably not even for Ballot #1. Kasich would be the early casualty.