So who replaces her?
The fed election is not scheduled until Oct/Nov of 2017....unless she quits early or a major loss on the three state elections in Apr/May 2017 occurs.
From the CDU Party (Merkel’s center-right party)...no one really gets anyone excited as her replacement. Note, she says absolutely that she retires next year, period.
From the SPD Party (center-left), they are in dismal shape and have no one that excites the public. Their numbers have gone from high 20’s...to 19.5 percent (two weeks ago was that poll). Dismal numbers.
So, the Greens are staying around 13-percent and have two choices....a progressive Green guy or a Turk. Neither really help the Greens much.
The Linke Party (former communists and leftists now) will be lucky to get around 10-percent. Their candidate is a clever gal, who’d like to flip over to anti-immigrant stance but the party is keen to stay neutral or pro-immigrant.
So, there are two oddball parties left.
1. The AfD Party (anti-immigration), who currently hold at 15-percent, and they’ve got some enthusiasm but labeled a bunch of brown-shirts. In the east of Germany....they might get near 25-percent....but it won’t be that way on the western side of the country.
2. The CSU Party. Right-leaning Bavarian Party. Handshake deal between them and the CDU set them to a limit of Bavaria only for decades now. There’s talk they might go national....maybe get 15-percent of the national vote (they typically get 8.5 percent in a national election but it’s all Bavarian votes). Their issue is that they don’t have a flashy guy that would appeal across the spectrum.
The public, I live here, so I can judge this....is mostly disgruntled and wanting the open door policy to end....stronger tactics on radical Islam...and some people from Berlin to be held responsible for their actions. They’d fire Merkel now....but then what? That’s the general problem in that public really doesn’t see Berlin leadership getting any better.
They invented a new word last year....Merklin. It means you as a leader....simply stand and observe things occurring....never doing anything to stop or change the mess in progress. Kids use the term often....referring to school officials, local political figures, and national folks with the term.