I agree with your analysis, especially concerning Northern Virginia, which has its own illegal alien communities in Arlington and Prince William, to go along with the earnest airey-fairy good-government types who come to DC to save the world.
Loudoun County might be an interesting bellweather (Leesburg) as it has a mix of ultra-rich lefties along with traditional horse country old money Republicans.
But the rest of the state, I-81 down to the coal corner, and the tidewater region with the military presence, should be bright red and should hopefully offset the liberally-infected northern counties outlined above.
I wish I could agree with you, but I can't. :-( NORVA, Richmond/Petersburg, and Tidewater (Newport News/Hampton/Norfolk/VA Beach/Portsmouth/etc.) votes majorly for the 'rats. Our local Virginian-Pilot editorial is heavily in the bag for our governor (former DNC head) and Hellery.
Local conservatives(including military), wave the flag, but we're shouted down by the unprincipled libs.
My hope for VA lies west of I-95.