Posted on 06/28/2016 2:18:44 PM PDT by Berlin_Freeper
WASHINGTON, June 28 (UPI) -- A tracking poll in the U.S. presidential election shows Democrat Hillary Clinton widening her lead over Republican Donald Trump and approaching the 50 percent threshold nationally in a head-to-head matchup.
The NBC News/SurveyMonkey online weekly tracking poll shows Clinton with a 49 percent-41 percent lead over Trump, her largest lead in that poll since it began tracking the likely general election matchup in early May.
(Excerpt) Read more at upi.com ...
Well you can go on the site and look at the % of each party.
On the poll that shows Hillary at 49 % the demographics were as follows:
Dem 34 %
Republican 27 %
Independent 39 %
Now according to Gallup the party affiliations as of today (June 27) are:
27 % republican
30 % Dem
41 % independent
However in may the same service showed the following at the beginning of May:
31 Republican
30 democratic
37 independent:
How that changed in 2 months is...well almost impossible
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states
from that in October 2014, before an election it was:
41 republican
42 democratic
18 Independent
yet 2014 was a blow out for republicans.
I could not find the 2016 party registrations tallied. Kind of odd to say the least. But I did find 2012
55 million republicans (32.5%)
72 million democrats (42.5%)
42 million independents(25.0%)
Obama got 65.9 million votes
Romney got 60.9 million votes
If you look at the primaries this year:
Republican votes: 30,937,353 voters
Democratic voters: 29,883,751 voters
Compared to 2008, which seems to be the most similar comparison election
Primary:
Republican 21,000,000 (approx.)
democratic 35,442,193
national:
Republican: 59,948,323
Democratic: 69,498,516
So it is hard to say exactly what the percentages should be in polls. Based on the primaries the republicans should have more motivated voters in the fall, and an initial cut would tend to indicate they win, unless Trump really piss off the independents.
What I find most interesting is how difficult it was to find how many of each party are registered. I could not find it on line, and I think that would allow one to gauge these polls. My guess is the figures do not support he narrative being pushed that Trump is a loser. I would suspect that we must wait until after the convention for real results that mean much.
This would be a game changer.
....And add to that, questions about Cruz’s citizenship did not help him.
Or lying about supporting Clinton when they really support Trump.
Hah..we think alike...both from PA
Just checked Gallup for 1980, you graph is a lie, Carter led throughput the year till September.
Self selecting poll which means is totally bogus......
Polls before the Republican primary started showed Jeb Bush easily winning.
Polls showed Gov. Scott Walker losing his 2012 recall election by 7 points. He won by 8 points. That’s a 15 point error.
Polls never picked up the Republicans taking the US House.
Duh!!!
sniff, sniff....something stinks
It’s self-selecting folks....so every so-called “fact” in this poll is not subjected to any control. Still, overall, things could be better for Trump than they are right now.
Too much BS in these polls. Dems (way) over sampled in all of them. Polls trying to direct the electorate.
In another month they’ll be saying it’s Hillary at 99 to 1 for Trump.
That’s what was said in 2008 and 2012
Pure crap - the polls are bogus propaganda.
Right you are.
Since I clearly recall Carter/Reagan polling and the actual result I am not quite ready to push the panic button.
I also recall telling my wife in 1980 that if Carter was reelected I was going to the gun shop the next day and getting another rifle. Probably more ammo if the HildaBeast is elected.
You know, as bad (seriously evil) as Hillary is, what really scares me and makes me very sad is that she is in fact still electable. What does that say about America and its people?
The NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll was one of the worst during the primaries. I would give this poll zero credibility.
Yesterday NBC pushed an actual poll not some online crap that had them Tied ?.
So which are you promoting ?...
the one that has Comrade Hillary way ahead ?...
How can two polls from the same radical left wing Dem front group be so different ?.. explain since your the expert !
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.