Posted on 07/15/2016 9:08:34 AM PDT by LS
There are a number of events erupting simultaneously, yet they are all connected. Many of you have commented on various threads about these in different ways. Let me (in a potpourris) address them.
1. The Islamic terrorist attack in Nice is more of the same; the French reaction is pretty much more of the same; and the US media reaction is typical head-in-the-sand, "Moslems don't kill people, trucks kill people" response. Will the French/Euros learn? They haven't so far, although a movement is building in France to finally take their country back---a French version of the "Reconquista." Too soon to see if it takes, and too early to know if France has found its pride and a spine.
2. Nice part deux: Obviously this only helps Trump. I saw a Tweet from a French young man last night, "I don't care who the Americans elect as long as it's not Hillary." The polls out earlier this week were STILL slanted, still heavily over-sampling Ds, and now had already shifted in Trump's direction. If the election were held today, Cankles would win . . . just barely, due to her lead in VA and a tie in OH. If OH and VA continue to go in Trump's direction, he already has the election no matter what CO and NV do. Right now he's ahead in PA, FL, IA, but losing VA, OH, CO, and NV would leave him down 20. Trump at this point really only needs to flip either CO or NV, plus either VA or OH to win. However, MI at 16 changes everything. Every time there is a Dallas BlacKKKlivesMatter (yes, they are a terrorist organization) or Moslem (yes, I'm using the old spelling because it offends them) murderous attack, Trump's numbers go up.
3. In many ways, this will be a "law and order" election a la 1968, except Trump will also have the trade and economic issues on his side, as well as the Moslem issue. When you combine that with Cankles' incredibly terrible "honesty" ratings, I really don't see how she even comes close in the electoral college, let alone wins. In my scenario above, if all those states come along, Trump would get to 330 EVs.
4. Pence: well, what can you say? All of you Freepers have had complaints of one sort or another about every potential veep. There is no getting around it. Having been a rock drummer, I remember two rules of showbiz:
The warmup can never upstage the headliner and stay on the tour, and the warmup always has to make the headliner look good.
Pence can do these. Moreover, while ALL politicians are ambitious, he doesn't strike me as frothing, rabidly ambitious the way Newt or Cruz do. Why is that important? There WILL be some talk of impeaching Trump the minute he does something decent (Moslem ban, building the Wall). This will go nowhere UNLESS there are a bunch of GOPe types who think they can get the veep to go along with the coup. Clearly Cruz would be such a person, and unfortunately I think Newt would too. (I never know how much of Newt is Newt and how much is Callista, but I don't minimize her potential for mischief). Pence, in this way, is safe. I don't think he's THAT ambitious.
4. The death of the "neverTrumpers" (please don't give them or the BlacKKKlivesMatter a hashtag of publicity if you tweet!) was a thing to behold. It came, in retrospect, REALLY easily and it shows several things. First, it shows how brilliant and focused Paul Manafort is and why Trump was 100% correct to sack Lewandowsky and put in Manafort. Manafort knew he had this rules vote, but nevertheless left no stone unturned in nailing down the votes. On Tues. neverTrumpers were thinking they could get 28 votes and Erick The Red Erickson was boasting about being able to get the vote.
They got 12. It wasn't close. Two of those were Mike Lee and his wife. This betrayal should NOT ever be forgotten. Anyway, this was a humiliation, not just a beating, for the neverTrumpers. Of course, little Benji Shapiro and Guy Benson are all over the place on Twitter posting as much anti-Trump stuff as they can. But it's clear who'se running the convention, and it ain't the GOPe.
5. Cruz: This guy continues to mystify me. He's supposed to be smart. A smart general knows when to retreat, rebuild your army and try again later. Cruz is not only burning up this year's campaign, but with all his scheming likely damaging his reelection in TX, which is darned hard to do for a conservative.
6. Just spoke with a GOP official in OH about the Qpoll, and he gave me a sad anecdote from 4 years ago. We had a black guy running for auditor. He had a black woman come up to him, give him a campaign check, and ask for a yard sign. After the election he saw her again and asked if she voted for him. She said, "You weren't on the slate." The Dems had gone to every black church each weekend during "early voting," had a lunch, then loaded people up into a bus to go vote, giving them an all-Dem slate card and telling them "We know how you vote." This is not fraud per se, but shows what a job the GOP has in getting people to these events with their own slate cards.
That said, I find it hard to believe that any voter who wanted to vote for Trump would be persuaded or even intimidated by a stupid slate card. We'll see. I'm doing follow-up research on polling of blacks in OH and actual final % in November.
Finally, the polls have definitely and consistently shifted in Trump's direction. He still doesn't lead in a lot where he needs to lead, but again, if you adjust for "likely" voters instead of "registered" or "adults," Trump is probably ahead in almost every poll. I cannot figure out the methodology of a poll that says it polled "1300 adults and 1000 registered voters." What does that mean? They only COUNTED the registered? They interviewed 2300 people? We know that "adults" are about 4 points to the left of the final result, and that "registered" are about 2 points off. So anything with Cankles +2 or tied is already a Trump lead. And, again, most of these are done (still) with heavy D samples. (The Monmouth poll of IA was actually pretty accurate, D+5 with Trump up 2).
I should mention that one explanation for Cruz’s obstinance could be the fact that his father PROPHESIED that he would be president (”a king to reign over America”). His supporters (like David Limbaugh) deny that St. Ted ever really bought this-—but I think otherwise. I think in fact Cruz fully believed his father’s prophecy and now, to admit he has lost, will be more than a political defeat. It would be a complete disproving of his father’s prophecy.
That may be way harder to swallow than a political loss.
Oh, one more thing: if you ever saw “The Kingdom,” where a pair of Saudi shooters cut loose in an American oil-worker compound, and when people run for cover, another Saudi “policeman” urges them to come to him, the HE detonates himself, . . . THEN, 12 hours later as all the emergency workers arrive on scene, a bomb in an ambulance blows up, so it was a “three-fer.”
I thought about the Nice truck assassin using this tactic.
I agree - I always thought he had seemed to feel entitled, and I think this is why. Who knows, perhaps this was just not his time. Maybe he will be president some day. Having said that, I dislike him intensely and thought he was as phony as the day is long.
Whatever.
The fact is Cruz is back in the senate, a very diminished man.
His poll numbers are dropping in Texas.
Me too. Biggest loser of the election year. Sorry Jeb.
Thanks for your post.
You are the very least, partially right. And possibly completely right.
There was something VERY strange about the desperation at the end that I’ve never seen in a pres primary.
I loved him at the begnining and guess I still like him but can never vote for him as pres. One narcissist has been enough this century.
Especially one who might think he’s a prophet.
< bkmk >
Astute insight FRiend.
The fact is, Ted Cruz should have been getting the message from the Almighty after the South Carolina primary, which we were told consisted of his ‘natural’ evangelical base, and yet Cruz did not carry even ONE County, Trump swept the field with a few isolated counties going for Foam Boy Rubio.
That should have been a wake up call, but led by that mad mormon prophet of the airwaves Glenn Beck, they doubled and tripled down, and by the time Indiana rolled around, Cruz was on the ropes, and Kasich never even got up high enough to FIND the ropes!
The best thing Cruz could have done at that point was to withdraw, congratulate Trump on his victory, and pledge to support Trump in every way because the alternative was too horrifying to contemplate, i.e., “President Hillary Rodham Clinton”. THAT would have earned Cruz a lot of credibility, it would have put an end to the insane #nevertrumpers early on, but Cruz couldn’t do that because at his core, he remains a ‘#nevertrumper’ just like his new best buds Romney, Jebuardo and the rest of that pack of turncoats.
As for Cruz’ political future?
Texas can do MUCH much better, and I hope they do.
I’m sorry, Jeb has been the biggest loser. Next I hope it’s Hillary.
Jeb was simply manhandled and mauled by Trump. Trump destroyed him within a week of announcing his candidacy.
Outstanding analysis LS. Thanks for sharing it with us.
I didn’t see the Kingdom. I avoided seeing it for all kinds of reasons.
First, let me say thank you for posting this. You bring something to the forum others can’t, and for that I am grateful.
Trump is already leading the country, which I think is something. Things are changing with people realizing that what they are seeing isn’t crazy, its planned.
This isn’t just mediocrity gone amok.
Don’t know if you are watching Mr. Robot. Pretty edgy stuff for TV. Esmail’s timing is pretty uncanny.
As you can see, this is a sort of rambling reply. I’m pretty young, but I’m an amateur radio enthusiast. FR is something like that for me, a place to discuss the situation with nominally like-minded people.
It’s not often you just post, and then post over your own posts. You are worried about something.
The recent police shootings - felt like 9/11. My wife was watching the news on the first day of my vacation from work. I was sleeping in.
She’s watching the tower burn, and then a second plane hit other tower. That’s when she woke me.
She looked at me after I had a chance to wake up and take in what was going on, and said, “This can’t be a coincidence.”
When the plane hit the Pentagon, I turned to her and said, “We’re at war. Go fill up the bathtubs. I’m going to the store to buy what we can while we can.”
I’ve often thought since then, when nothing else really happened, that the plan was stupid on their part - that they had no other campaign planned that capitalized on the chaos, the paralysis, and the economic damage.
However, lately, they did have a plan for a follow up. 9/11 was the ‘Apple Super Bowl 1984 Commercial’, and the plan was BLM, police shootings, Orlando, The raping and capitulation of Europe, and the tacit approval bestowed by the DOJ of pretty much all of it.
I notice you didn’t mention the San Berdoo shooting. I forgot about that too, but then just recalled it.
This isn’t a coincidence. It can’t be. And it isn’t economics either. The economic situation is bad, but even that seems planned when the fixes really are pretty easy, even though the recovery will take time.
Anyway, I couldn’t let your post, repost, and repost on a repost go unappreciated.
But you are worried about something, because you never do that.
Thank you again.
That may be way harder to swallow than a political loss.
Even worse is that Ted was raised to become President, probably because of his father's prophecy or at least because his father had some unconscious sense of it.
It not only calls into question his father's prophecy but the wisdom of Ted's upbringing, all his work diligence in his father's judgment...almost his entire life.
In a way, Ted's failure calls into question his father's very sanity and his own raison d'être.
That is a definite big problem about Cruz.
Interesting theory...
I fully support Trump and his choices!
GO TRUMP / PENCE !!!
Now let’s kick Hillary’s despicable arse !!!!
Excellent writeup! Thank you.
Because it offends the Mohammedans
Delusional ?
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