Romney got over 90% of the republican vote. That’s a fact.
Trump is polling around 80% among republicans. If he was polling around 90% he would be far ahead of Hillary overall.
I believe Republicans will inevitably consolidate between now and election day. Historically Republicans are always more united than democrats in presidential elections.
That’s why most of the current polls are deceptive. They assume that 20% of Republicans will vote for Hillary. But these 20% are just nevertrumpers having a hissy fit. I doubt they will vote that way.
How much of the independent vote did Romney get? It seems like there are still a huge number of undecided independents.
You hit the nail on the head. If the NeverTrumpers would get over their butthurt and get on board, Trump would be winning easily. He needs to get in the 90% range among Republicans. If he can do that, he is good. The good news is that these folks should be gettable.
Polls are, and are going to be very wonky this election.
While Trump may get a smaller percentage of the registered Republican vote than Romney, in sheer numbers I think he blows away the total Republican vote Romney received because turnout will be massive this time. Add in the under the radar voter discarded by some likely voter models because they hadn’t voted in a long time, or ever and Trump wins this so long as he polls close in registered voters I think.
90% of the Republican vote, or 90% of the republican vote that actually voted?