Seems like in previous elections, whoever lead the independents lead the poll.
It is hard to judge nowadays what is the relevance of prior politics and polls versus the Trump Effect of now.
Historically, my feeling is that for a Democrat to win the Presidency against a strong Republican, he/she HAS to have numbers of blacks reaching over 95%, virtually the same thing for gays, most of the Jewish vote, high percentage of Hispanics, strong support from moderates and independents, plus some wiggling (what I’d call illegal/fraudulent voting).
I just don’t see that for Hillary now. She may have women, but she’s not strong with moderates and independents, her numbers with Hispanics and blacks aren’t that high and some other falling support that used to be automatic.
She’s not a likeable person and she is harsh and dodgy. If you listen to her, the standard catch phrase when asked about something topical is “oh, I’ve always had a consistent record for.......” when it can be demonstrated that she has not. She got away with it before because of media, but that wall is wilting, paper thin in some places.
I don’t think she has the stamina nor the willing support from moderators and media to get away with that crap in a debate - so she’ll limit those like its her Ebola. She also won’t interface with media in venues where questions and tone can’t be prescreened beforehand. She takes the standard attorney rule “always know the answer before you pose the question in court” and transforms it to “always know and control the question before you deign to allow the question to be posed.”
Lastly, her health. She’s hiding something. To me I don’t see evidence of “no health issues” save the fact the campaign and media lapdogs come out with Dr. reports and how she has stamina and ‘walks!’
She’s an unfriendly, unlikeable and the only time you can see genuine joy in her face is when she has a drink in it or when she’s standing next to some hot young, well-endowed chickadee.
I suspect that we could see a landslide for Trump coming out of this and that at best she’ll lose, but with a passable showing. I’m hoping and praying for it, certainly.