Posted on 07/25/2016 3:17:46 PM PDT by Kaslin
BEGIN TRANSCRIPT
RUSH: Trump got a convention bounce and it's a big one, a six-point convention bounce. Now, if you look at Real Clear Politics average of polls, you don't see six points, because those polls -- the average of those polls -- consist of a number of days before the convention added to the days of and after the convention. But if you take out the days leading up to the convention -- just look at the polling data that comes from the convention and after it -- it's a huge, six-point convention bump. Now, you might say, "Well, that's no big deal. That's no big deal, Rush! Every candidate gets a convention bounce." That's the thing: That hasn't been the case in a long time. Let's go to none other than CNN for the details.
"Donald Trump comes out of his convention ahead of Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House, topping her 44% to 39% in a four-way matchup including Gary Johnson (9%) and Jill Stein (3%) and by three points in a two-way head-to-head, 48% to 45%. ...
"There hasn't been a significant post-convention bounce in CNN's polling since 2000. That year Al Gore and George W. Bush both boosted their numbers by an identical 8 points post-convention before ultimately battling all the way to" the Florida recount, the aftermath, and Supreme Court decision. There haven't been convention bounces.
Obama didn't get one in 2008. Bush didn't get one in 2004. Nobody got one in 2004, 2008, or 2012. So this is the first convention bounce in the CNN poll -- Trump got it -- since 2000. That's CNN, and this... Believe me. Don't doubt me on this. Despite the smiling and attempts at everything's okay and all is normal that you're seeing from Democrats this week, they're worried. They are panicked. Because Trump was supposed to be nowhere near Hillary. Trump was not supposed to be close, much less leading.
Because in the conventional world of politics, Trump was supposed to have imploded or have been exposed as a fraud and a know-nothing long ago. I mean, you go back three months, six months. The Democrat Party, the thing they were hoping for was Trump to win the nomination. I mean, they thought that would be a slam dunk, because the guy doesn't know what he's doing. They think he's crazy. They think his support is thin and can be persuaded to abandon him. They don't know what they're dealing with.
But they're getting an idea now that this is not the way it was supposed to be.
Last week, ladies and gentlemen, Nate Silver -- the vaunted Nate Silver, formerly of the New York Times and now of his own website, FiveThirtyEight.com... This is a guy that the Democrats relied on for comfort. He was their guru during the 2012 presidential campaign. Nate Silver then was analyzing polls. That's what he does. He analyzes polls; then makes percentage predictions based on his unique analysis. "Only Nate Silver does what he does!" So goes the reputation.
Only Nate Silver has secret ways of analyzing results and making in-depth predictions based on whoever's likely to win, not by margin although other polling units do. And last week, Nate Silver was telling all of Democrats (summarized), "Don't sweat it! Right now, we got Trump at maybe 10 to 15% chance of winning the White House." Well, Business Insider: "Nate Silver: Donald Trump Would Most Likely Win the Election if it Were Held Today." Remember, Democrats believe this guy. This guy is an oracle.
"If the election were held [today]," and, of course, it isn't, but if it were, "Donald Trump would likely win. That's what renowned statistician Nate Silver projected [today] for his data journalism outlet FiveThirtyEight. In his 'Now-cast' election model for who would win if ballots were cast [today], Silver gave the Republican nominee a 57.5% chance of winning the presidency," up from 10 or 15%. Whatever it was, it was miniscule just a week ago.
"Presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had a 42.5% chance of securing the nation's highest office if voters were to take to the polls [today]. ... However, in Silver's polls-only forecast and in his polls-plus forecast..." See, this is why this is special. Nobody else has a "polls-only" or "polls-plus," but Nate Silver does! In his "polls-only forecast and in his polls-plus forecast, Clinton was still favored to come out on top.
"In the polls-only model, Clinton had a 53.7% chance of winning, while in the polls-plus model, Silver gave Clinton a 58.2% chance of winning in November. But those numbers are a drastic drop-off from where they recently were -- hovering around 80%." Nate Silver tweeted, "Don't think people are really grasping how plausible it is that Trump could become president. It's a close election right now." He's trying to warn 'em. He's trying to warn the Democrats that things are much worse.
And then there was a USC survey that was released yesterday, an election forecast, and this one is a track of this outfit's "best estimate over time of how Americans plan to vote in November." And the upshot is that... Well, Trump is way ahead in this. Well, not way ahead, but he's got about, say, an eight-point lead with a 95% confidence level in this poll. It's just a graph. It's a graph poll since July 10th, since July 23rd. The point is... It's a relatively new poll.
"The 2016 USC Dornsife / LA Times Presidential Election Poll represents a pioneering approach to tracking changes in Americans' opinions throughout a campaign for the White House. Around 3000 respondents ... are asked questions on a regular basis on what they care about most," and in this race it's Trump. So, again, I'm only mentioning this ladies and gentlemen, because I have been called a "data denier." I've been blamed by others on our side of the aisle for being in denial of data -- in other words, by not believing polls.
This is something that traces back to the Romney-Obama campaign of 2012. "You've gotta believe what the data says! You can't be a data denier. That's living in a fantasyland!" So I'm just telling what the data is. In that CNN poll, by the way, it's always the case, particularly with traditional polls. You go to the internals, it's bad for Hillary. The end result even now has Trump way up. But get this. Hillary Clinton: "Do you consider her honest and trustworthy?" Yes, 30%. No, 68%. That's CNN and just some of the internals, which do not look good for Hillary.
END TRANSCRIPT
This is just the first bounce after the Republican convention. He will get another 10 point bounce after the democratic convention. It’s hot in Philly and by Thursday they will be rioting in the streets after Hillary’s coronation.
I am sure he will
I’m not comfortable with that lead though. This is a woman who has just been exposed as much as anybody could ever be exposed as corrupt as it gets - Her husband meets with Lynch and she skates from the law, obvious as hell what happened there. And then the email leaks proving Trump absolutely 100% right that the game was rigged against Sanders. And he’s only up by 5 percentage points? He should be SLAUGHTERING her right about now!!! He should be at least above 50% with her down below 40. How is this possible? What else does this woman have to do to eff up her campaign? Behead kittens on live TV? This is unbelievable. Can you imagine what Trumps poll numbers would be if the roles were reversed? It just boggles the mind the support this woman gets, I really think her supporters are zombies, they just do not care about the candidate only if their stinking party wins.
Consider for a moment that over 1/3 of those polled said they are voting for Hillary.
That is stunning to me.
Party loyalty?
First female POTUS?
“Clinton”?
Words fail me.
Low information voters hadn’t paid attention. They tuned in and found out Trump was was the right choice.
I hope so. I might even watch the news just for the pleasure of seeing that take place.
As long as the freebies keep flowing, the gibsmedats won't care.
Here’s where we need to stay grounded.
He’s not going to get a 10 point bounce and lead by 15 at the end of the convention.
4 is feasible and is great.
It’s over when he gives his acceptance speech on November 8.
We still need to donate, make sure everyone we know is voting, get absentees for those who need it, and anything else that will secure a victory.
I have a really strong feeling that convention is going to be an absolute disaster, not from the protesters but the whole convention is just going to come across as pathetically phony, to the point where people will be making fun of it for weeks. I mean think about it: Most likely they are going to prop Hillary up as trustworthy and honest - An absolute joke. Then they most likely will play up the “Trump is a hate monger/racist/misogynist blah blah blah” and they will go into this speeches that “All religions and people must be respected” and people are going to watch this and think “What the hell are they talking about? Terror attacks are happening all the time now, I don’t want these people here!” I just can’t see this convention being taken seriously, the world has gone insane and the Rats are going to be pushing this sunshine and rainbows garbage and people just aren’t going to buy it, it’s just going to come across as completely and utterly phony, and I can’t WAIT to hear Hillarys speech. Oh my God, can you imagine the absolute BS that is going to be coming out of her mouth? She has ZERO accomplishments, her integrity is zilcho, 60% of the country says she is dishonest. The only thing left for her is LYING, she has no choice but to lie!
that’s the bottom line- with socialism, the bottom-feeders will be loyal to those feeding them. The Cloward-Pivan plan includes getting as many as possible dependent upon the government.
But..."That's not who we are...".
/s
Wait til they see the Hillary Decline.
The rioting will happen inside the convention center. If it continues like it has today, the DNC will cancel the rest of the convention and decree Hillary the winner.
The answer is simple. Free Crap from the government and hard core leftists, next question.
Face it, Satan could run as a Democrat in this Country and still get a minimum of 40% of the vote. Party loyalty uber alles.
The race will be close. A corrupt candidate for a corrupt Nation.
“gibsmedats”
How do you translate that into English?
Gives me thats?
> “That’s what ***renowned*** statistician Nate Silver projected”
No Rush, you are quickly becoming the buffoon that Bill O’Reilly has become.
Silver is NOT a RENOWNED statistician. Statisticians that resort to politically polling are by and large flunkies to that profession.
Here is an example of a RENOWNED statistician:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._Edwards_Deming
Here’s another:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Cox_(statistician)
And here’s another:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Breslow
Do not besmirch this noble profession of statistics with the likes of political polling flunkies.
Rush, if you must refer to Silver as something, refer to him as a pollster.
Because referring to Silver as a ‘renowned statistician’ is like referring to your delivery as Reaganesque. There is no, not one iota, of comparison.
Take a vacation Rush, your brain cells are dwindling.
> “That’s what ***renowned*** statistician Nate Silver projected”
No Rush, you are quickly becoming the buffoon that Bill O’Reilly has become.
Silver is NOT a RENOWNED statistician. Statisticians that resort to politically polling are by and large flunkies to that profession.
Here is an example of a RENOWNED statistician:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._Edwards_Deming
Here’s another:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Cox_(statistician)
And here’s another:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_Breslow
Do not besmirch this noble profession of statistics with the likes of political polling flunkies.
Rush, if you must refer to Silver as something, refer to him as a pollster.
Because referring to Silver as a ‘renowned statistician’ is like referring to your delivery as Reaganesque. There is no, not one iota, of comparison.
Take a vacation Rush, your brain cells are dwindling.
The polls were taken before the email release.
Hillary may actually lose points after her convention, but we’ll never hear about those. They’ll manufacture a 20% bounce for her by Friday morning.
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