Posted on 08/08/2016 1:41:53 PM PDT by CaptainK
People for Mrs. Bill don’t see a need to go to rallies; she may have meager attendance at all of them. It’s not what her people do in their spare time.
Another huge red flag about this poll is the age breakdown. They have 25% of the respondents between 18-34, while only 21% of the respondents were 65+. There is no way that will be the voting breakdown come November. Seniors are the most reliable voters around and are much more conservative.
I do believe Bill Clinton got less than 50% in both of his runs for president.
the real and last battle will begin\end with the debates.
Romney didn’t have crowds like that through his primary or in July or August of 2012 Trump has been drawing huge crowds consistently since a year ago. The two elections are far different.
These polls have to be rigged. How is she even close to Trump, let alone leading.
I’d have to think long room’s methodology is closer to the truth
I don’t know what to make of this. There is no doubting the size of the rallies-—but what % of voters go to the rallies? How many are repeaters? I’ve been to one rally in OH. If I go to another, it’s a “double count.” How many people who see him in Ames go and see him in, say, Des Moines?
Also, it is true that Minion Romney had a big (15,000) crowd at Westchester in 2012 and in FL (30,000) and lost both states. So that’s something that has to be considered.
So the crowds cannot be discounted or ignored, but they aren’t hard and fast evidence of Trump penetrating to the “indies” or the “part time/hard-to-get” voters.
2008 2012
Male 47% 46%
Female 53% 54%
GOP 32 33
DEM 39 35
IND 29 28
WHT 74 72
BLK 13 13
HSP 09 10
From exit polling. They seem to have decided that 18% of the GOP that showed up for McCain and Romney will sit out for Trump.
They will probably arrange to have rare Pokémon at the polling sites on election day.
See now that’s just plain wrong we KNOW Clinton is leading by 60 p[oints but why do they hold back?
Desaparecidos. Has a nice ring to it.
Bill Clinton never received 50% of the popular vote in a presidential election:
The day before the elections is one thing.
Drawing huge crowds 3 months, 6 months, 9 months before the election is more impressive, no?
Romney had crowds like that the last 2 weeks to month - as most do. Not all year like Trump.
RV + n oversample D.
What is intriguing, though, is that is a significantly smaller sample (particularly LV) than the one and only poll that they did showing Bishop Dullard leading in 2012.
Which suggests two things: Monmouth has less monies to get the job done right, so they revert to the cheap RV + n oversample D...now they've become just another poll...too bad, they are trashing a decent rep...
The latest Monmouth University Poll of voters nationwide shows Mitt Romney holding on to a three point lead over Barack Obama in next month’s presidential race. The GOP challenger continued to make gains in every issue area after the second debate. Currently, Gov. Romney leads the incumbent by 48% to 45% among likely American voters...The latest Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone with 1,402 likely voters in the United States from October 18 to 21, 2012. This sample has a margin of error of + 2.6 percent.
It is impressive, but not necessarily representative of broad support.
Romney’s crowds were late in coming.
Were the attendees truly enthusiastic about Romney, or were they really just motivated by opposition to Obama?
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