Posted on 08/20/2016 4:50:12 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
In 2014, a wave of unaccompanied kids from Central America caught the U.S. government off-guard when they flooded into Texas in record numbers, triggering what President Obama called an “urgent humanitarian situation.”
Two years later, a silent swell of a different type is starting to emerge on the U.S. southern border. And it could be a harbinger of another immigration crisis in the making.
Salvadorans are fleeing to the United States in massive numbers, and now they’re bringing the whole family along. Though the number of unaccompanied Salvadoran minors crossing the border has not returned to the surge numbers seen in 2014, the number of Salvadoran family units apprehended on the southern border has increased by a whopping 96% over the past year.
Undocumented_Salvadorans_by_month Undocumented Salvadoran families are arriving in the U.S. in greater numbers than immigrants from any other Latin American nation. Ten Salvadoran families are apprehended here for every one Mexican family, according to U.S. Customs and Border Patrol statistics.
There are now more Salvadorans in U.S. immigration deportation proceedings than any other nationality.
U.S. deportation proceedings in immigration courts.from TRAC Immigration U.S. deportation proceedings in immigration courts, by nationality.
For those paying attention to the situation in El Salvador, the timing of the new surge might seem strange considering that the country’s murder rate, which was the highest in the world in 2015, has dropped significantly during the first half of this year. The country’s death toll has dropped from an average of 25 murders each day in January to around 11 murders per day over the past four months.
el-salvador-murders At first blush, that looks like good news. But behind the numbers there could be a gathering storm that’s hard to see from the outside, but one that Salvadorans can feel in the air. And that sense that the center cannot hold might explain why so many families are pulling up sticks and heading out now.
The headlines in El Salvador suggest something’s brewing—possibly a war.
The attorney general’s office last week announced that state security forces recently foiled a dangerous terrorist plot by the MS-13 (Salvatrucha) that could have escalated the country’s gang war into something more akin to a guerrilla insurrection.
In a voluminous case filed against 78 MS-13 leaders, state prosecutors accused the criminal group of plotting to purchase high-calibre weapons in Mexico and Guatemala to arm and train an “elite” commando unit of 500 gangbangers to coordinate nationwide terrorist attacks against government targets.
The prosecutor’s case, which is allegedly based on intelligence gathered from wiretaps, says the MS-13 was in the process of raising $1 million to buy assault rifles, surface-to-air weapons to shoot down helicopters, commando uniforms and bulletproof vests, according to local media outlets allowed to review the document. The plan was allegedly to place two elite commandos in each of the 249 MS-13 cliques to lead an offensive aimed at asserting territorial control while destabilizing the country’s economy and political establishment.
In an effort to sap state coffers, the Salvatrucha shock troops were allegedly planning to target police officers and politicians for daily killings, because each public employee’s death costs the government $2,000- $3,000 in funeral costs, plus an additional $20,000-$25,000 in insurance payouts to family members.
Hundreds of people attend the funeral of the slain mayor of Tepetitán, who became the second mayor killed by the MS-13 this year.AFP / MARVIN RECINOS Hundreds of Salvadorans recently attended the funeral of the slain mayor of Tepetitán, who became the second mayor killed by the MS-13 this year.
In short, the alleged Salvatrucha war plan would have meant an unfathomable escalation of violence in a country that already has the dubious distinction of being one of the most dangerous places in the world.
But is it any of it true? Some claim the whole government report stinks of officialist propaganda.
“This is an operation of psychological warfare,” says Paolo Luers, a former gang truce mediator and ex-FMLN guerrilla.
Luers says he thinks the government is trying to justify the “extraordinary” measures it adopted in March to crack down on gangs, while also trying to create division among the MS-13’s top leadership, an incarcerated group known as the ranfla.
MS-13 members are transferred to a high-security prison last year as part of a government effort to break their control over the streets.Marvin RECINOS/AFP/ MS-13 members are transferred to a high-security prison last year as part of a government effort to break their control over the streets.
“I think this whole business about the 500 men is total lie,” Luers told me. “The official policy agreed to among the three gangs (The MS-13, 18-Sureños and 18-Revolucionarios) in March is to not fall into the government’s trap by getting involved in a military-style final battle, rather to retreat and reduce the level of confrontation.”
Luers says the gangs are smart enough to realize that they would lose a war against the government. Even trying to organize a military campaign on that scale would require so much money that it would mark “the beginning of the end” of the gangs’ control in the neighborhoods, he says.
The gangs themselves insist they are trying to avoid going to war with the government. In the most recent communique issued by the MS-13 and the two factions of Barrio 18, the gangs claim the recent drop of violence in El Salvador is thanks to their decision to quiet their guns.
“The reduction of violence is due to the decision made by the gangs, because we don’t have any interest in involving the country in war,” the June 18 communique said.
Outside security analysts are also scratching their heads at the government’s claims that the MS-13 was secretly preparing for war.
RELATED EL-SALVADOR_header El Salvador's new plan to combat gang violence is insane
Adam Isacson, a regional a regional security policy expert for the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), says it makes no sense for the gangs to launch some type of guerrilla insurgency against El Salvador’s government—it’s just not their m.o.
The gangs, he says, have no ideology, no political program, and no aspiration to take over the government. Their only interest is in controlling territory for extortion and other illicit business endeavors—and that model works best when the gangs aren’t fighting the police or army.
Declaring war on the El Salvador’s government would draw way too much heat, Isacson says.
Members of the Salvadoran Armed Forces patrol an MS-13 controlled area following the murder of 11 people in in March.MARVIN RECINOS / AFP Members of the Salvadoran Armed Forces patrol an MS-13 controlled area following the murder of 11 people in in March.
“It would be an awfully risky strategy because the Salvadoran government has more trained personnel, more firepower, and [U.S.] Southern Command would be prime to jump in on that,” he told me. “And it’s hard to imagine that going well for them.”
Whatever’s really happening with the gangs—whether they’re just hanging low or secretly preparing for war—the U.S. immigration numbers suggest that that many Salvadorans don’t think the government’s repressive crackdown, which is awful in its own right, will result in lasting peace. As is too often the case in Central America, things can always get worse.
And for many Salvadorans, the risks of emigrating to the U.S. is not a sufficient deterrent compared to the danger of staying behind.
That’s what happens when the US feral government goes to a foreign country and advertises for illegal immigrants.
Yea, they’re all in Wal-Mart.
These are nasty people that even Mexicans don’t want in their country. That is why Mexico has a humongous wall dividing El Salvador and Mexico!
Send them back
El Salvador is one of the highest murder rates in the world. George Soros must go. Public enemy number one.
-—And for many Salvadorans, the risks of emigrating to the U.S. is not a sufficient deterrent compared to the danger of staying behind.-—
Risks of crossing the border illegally? What risks?
Also, I understand that the REAL crisis for the USA will be when half of S. America comes swarming in. I would imagine Venezuelans are first in line.
This is all part of the planned ‘scorched Earth policy’ before obama is ‘supposed’ to leave office, imo.
We need a war.
If the Dems had their druthers we’d be a country of over a 1 billion, mostly Moslems, Mexicans, and Central/South Americans completely dependent on gov’t (funded by the increasingly small productive class) for their existence.
I hate to disagree, but here in Maryland there are many Salvadoran immigrants and the vast majority of them are very nice, hard working, family oriented people who want the best for their kids just like the rest of us do. And the situation in El Salvador is a mess. I know two people who went home to visit family and were murdered in the past two years. Salvadoran immigrants can get temporary resident status and most are here legally. So it’s not correct to say that these are all nasty people. MS13 members are, but that’s like saying that because Black Lives Matter people are bad that all Americans are bad.
If Hillary wins we are invading Mexico to get away from her.
25% of Mexico’s population is HERE.
Wonderful. Let’s allow and encourage the illegal immigration of people who they themselves turned their home nation in to a violent cesspool. Bring it here. It’s not fair we live in relative peace. Bring up MS-13 and all the other latin gangs. Oh wait. Progressives believe it is the dirt under their feet that make places backward violent slums and not the people.
Cowards and lazy.
>Salvadoran immigrants and the vast majority of them are very nice
What would be “nice” is if they stayed and cleaned out the trash that make it unlivable. Cowards can be “nice.”
How many of these “Salvadorans” are actually Hondurans, Nicaraguans, Guatemalans, Colombians, etc?
They might as well while Bambi is in office
Trump for President.
My apologies you are correct but my question is why doesn’t Mexico take them in?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.