Hill has never been as popular as bill and bill never won more than 50% of the electorate in 1992 I belive he only got 43%
Bubba won 43% in 1992 and I voted for him.
Bubba was likable, funny and the kind of guy people could see themselves hanging out for a beer.
Here we are over a generation later and Hillary is the exact opposite of her husband. I don’t see her getting more votes than her husband did and she will get far less.
I wouldn’t invite Hillary to a cookout and she wouldn’t be welcome at a wake.
Exactly, which is why the polling that was showing Clinton up at or near 50% was comical.
Bill, for all his ills and faults, was a damned good retail politician, he knew how to work a room, connect with people on a personal level, and basically competent at retail politicking.
Hillary is cold, she has no innate warmth, and comes across as phony every single time. The more she is seen the lower she polls. As Trump wins the polls and debates, Hillary will have no choice but to be more visible trying to fight against him... and the more she is visible the lower she’ll poll and the more she’ll be visible.
She’s a terrible candidate, and it is beyond laughable that anyone is truly thinking she is going to win, particularly in a disruptive cycle, which this is.
All Trump has to do is get through the debates looking like a reasonable person, and if he does, he wins. He will likely be ahead in the polling by the first debate anyway, as there is no one, no one on the fence about voting for hillary... Those that are going to vote for her have already decided too... other than some first time voters, she’s a known entity, if folks haven’t decided to support her by now, they aren’t going to... the only real direction she has to go in the polls is down, and I believe on her best day if she did everything right, she could not get more than the low 40s in support 42/43.
Look for the polling knee to happen somewhere right around the debates probably just before, you will see Trump not only having the lead here and there, or by a few points, but starting to break away.... and as he starts to look like he’s going to win, you will see the 2-4 % of the population who plan to vote for him, but are afraid to say it for fear of reprisal, start to admit their intent all along and you will see him go up some more, and then assuming he comes out of the debates looking reasonable, you’ll see him gain another 3 or 4 points...
By early Oct it will be clearly obvious Trump is winning and Dems will be scrambling to try to hold onto states no one in the mainstream was willing to even remotely consider would be in danger.
I firmly believe any state, any state, that D’s have not traditionally taken by 5 or more points will go Trump... and any they take between 5 and 10 will be in play.
I fully expect Trump to take the Rust belt, sans MN and IL.... I expect him to do well in new england and take some states no one would remotely think he could get... and depending on how things go, he could even break into some of the bigger NE states and take a few of those, if momentum does start to shift hard and the writing gets on the wall... because once its known you are going to be the winner... you will get another percent or two of folks who will vote for you, just because they want to be onboard with a winner, not for any other reason.
Time will tell, but I truly see no way Hillary can muster better than 15 states and 180 EC votes at BEST... and I would not be surprised at all if she’s closer to 10 states and 100-120 EC votes on election day.