Posted on 09/14/2016 11:01:11 AM PDT by SMGFan
The week before last I looked at Donald Trump’s likely “path to victory” and adjudged it as “a tightrope walk down an insanely narrow path to 270 electoral votes.” I’d now take out the adjective insanely and maybe even suggest it’s a walk along a balance beam rather than a tightrope. As the popular-vote margin separating Clinton and Trump gradually shrinks, putting together a map of states Trump might carry involves less conjecture about where he might make gains and more confidence that he might be able to consolidate gains he has already made.
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Something similar has happened in state polling, with a subtle but important difference: What looked a couple of weeks ago like a long wall of states in which Trump needed to overcome a long-standing Clinton lead has gotten shorter. This is most dramatically shown in the state-by-state projections from Daily Kos (a pro-Democratic but, if anything, rather impressively pessimistic outlet), which now gives Trump an advantage not only in the previously red but blue-trending states of Arizona and Georgia, but also in Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio. Add all that up with the states everyone expects Trump to carry and he’s at 259 electoral votes.
(Excerpt) Read more at nymag.com ...
“Trump is getting, despite contrary expectations earlier, the traditional pro-Republican “bump” when pollsters switch from samples of registered voters to those of likely voters. That could tilt polling averages a bit more in his direction very soon.”
No informed person had reason to expect Trump wouldn’t get that “bump” like nearly every other R candidate. It’s inherent in the polling methods.
If Trump takes Ohio, Fla, NC and NY. It’s over. No one is talking about NY because they know Trump not only has NY state locked up, be he is a city kid and will get those votes also.
And the entire DC Establishment, as well as those who have bribed them, are starting to SWEAT...
If TRUMP is an honest man, intent on getting rid of a crooked system, a LOT of people whose names we know are going to prison.
If they let him live that long...
I completely agree with this, but I doubt the Polls/MSM will talk about it before Nov 8 2016 9 PM EST :)
I can't wait for them to announce they're packing their bags and leaving. Will the Australians accept them?
HAHAHA!
Very good!
It's actually more like a runaway train at this point.
Trump is up now in CO and NV. I also expect he will win VA.
If Trump wins New York?! That would mean many other states would have fallen in line (WI, MI, PA, VA, CO, CT), and he’d be on his way to 370+ EVs.
I grew up in upstate NY, and that area used to be as conservative as Kansas or Georgia. Remember that Jim Buckley was elected US Senator in 1970 on the Conservative Party ticket. [What a night THAT was!]
But lately Upstate has gone through a serious depression, and many people are dependent on government handouts. Not sure whether they will vote their conscience (Trump) or their pocketbook (Clinton).
Hmmm, I don’t see Trump having 233 without at least one of those states.
in the polls plus method, , the most favorable to Trump, Silver has him currently at 259, with inclusion of FL (29) OH (18) and IA (6) added to Romney 206...he needs 10 EV’s to deny Hilary Clinton; best bet is NV (6), and NH (4)...problematic but of course possible...
Personally, I always knew CO was Trump for the taking if he wants the state.
“But lately Upstate has gone through a serious depression, and many people are dependent on government handouts. Not sure whether they will vote their conscience (Trump) or their pocketbook (Clin”
With Cuomo killing fracking up there, Trump is going to get a lot of votes.
I listened to that Silver retard's podcast today. If you want to get a sense for how completely biased he and his merry band of skunks are, give it a listen. It's FiveThirtyEight Elections. I listened on Pocketcasts.
Australia already has a huge Muslim problem, I would actually feel sorry for the Aussie’s having to deal with entitled celebrities who think the world is their oyster..I hope if they do move to Australia that their Govt takes 90 percent of their wealth, after all that is the “Progressive” thing to do
Most popular yard sign I saw driving through Albany County before the election campaign heated up: "Repeal the SAFE Act." (It's an insane anti-gun law in New York State.)
And I wonder if the upstate depression has deepened the hatred of the liberals in Albany.
For 8 years now America has been run as a criminal enterprise. HOW then can the enterprise be handed over to a reletive boy scout? The answer is that it CANNOT. There are interesting times coming our way.
I think that clip of Clinton’s collapse will be seen by history as a seminal event in the campaign.
I just glanced at the stills and then moved n, but this a.m. I watched the video and it seemed to me that she stiffened up just as she went into the van - that looked more like a seizure than anything else.
What also hit me was that this is the only video I have seen of the incident. If some citizen had not had their smartphone handy, we would never have known about it. No wonder the Elites want to control the Internet.
“Nate was amazingly wrong about Trump in the primary.”
Nate gave Trump a 2% chance to win the Republican nomination. Let’s add in the bookie sites that said Jeb Bush would win the nomination.
Nevada and Colorado in play - he won’t even need Pennsylvania....
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