He is liberal, but seems to be earnest in his attempt to assess polling data.
The methodology at the site is better than that of the others, in my opinion as a statistical practitioner.
For example, for the other aggregator sites such as NYT, the distribution of expected outcomes appears to be normally distributed. 538 assumes that certain states will move together due to the underlying demographic composition and voting behavior. The result is a non-normal empirical distribution of electoral outcomes. I think this makes sense.
I’m glad I’m drinking some wine. Now i have an excuse for not understanding what you said.
“He is liberal, but seems to be earnest in his attempt to assess polling data.”
I seriously doubt that. Numbnuts Nate gave Trump a 2% chance of taking the Republican nomination.
“For example, for the other aggregator sites such as NYT, the distribution of expected outcomes appears to be normally distributed.”
FWIW: I agree with you. I’m dyslexic and screw the math up unless I go really slowly but I understand the concepts involved and you are correct.
Basically what you are saying is that because Trump is leading in Ohio and Indiana he will pull Michigan, Wisconsin and Illinois toward his column because mid westerners share similar cultural biases.
This is sort of why I think NJ may be in play if Pennsylvania is. If NY goes for Trump expect it to be closer than demodogs would like in Connecticut and Massachusetts. I think Trump has a chance in NY State. He is only down by 2 in New Jersey in the last poll I saw that covered that state.