Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

New Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows Clinton ahead in Pennsylvania
www.mcall.com ^ | 9/18/16 | Laura Olson

Posted on 09/17/2016 10:14:32 PM PDT by CaptainK

WASHINGTON — Democrat Hillary Clinton has a 9-point lead among likely Pennsylvania voters as Republican Donald Trump continues to struggle among groups key to winning the state, according to a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll released Saturday.

The survey, conducted Sept. 12-16, shows Clinton leading the presidential race here with support from 47 percent of likely voters who say they intend to vote for her or are leaning that way. Trump is at 38 percent, while 11 percent say they'd pick neither of the major-party choices, and 4 percent are not sure.

Clinton's lead narrows slightly to 8 percent when third-party candidates are included, with 40 percent for her, 32 percent for Trump, 14 percent for Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and 5 percent for Green Party nominee Jill Stein.

(Excerpt) Read more at mcall.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; 2016swingstates; clinton; donaldtrump; hillary; hillaryclinton; pa2016; pennsylvania; trump
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-68 next last
To: Dilbert San Diego
Because the sample is based on a completely unrealistic sample. The sample is based on the Democrats having a larger turnout than they had in 2012 - that not going to happen!

In 2012, when conservatives stayed home, the turnout was 45D 34R 20I, the sample of this poll is 47D 39R 11I . You can make a poll look however you want by weighting the sample
21 posted on 09/17/2016 10:39:30 PM PDT by MMaschin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Dilbert San Diego

YUGE leads in some states.

I dont trust PA nor do I trust NJ.

just hoping she’ll have to invest time and money there.

He’s got Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and the election. maybe 3 of 4 electorals from Maine


22 posted on 09/17/2016 10:39:40 PM PDT by dp0622 (The only thing an upper crust conservative hates more than a liberal is a middle class conservative)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: CaptainK
Trump doesn't need PA, and it may not be possible to beat what is likely the worst voter fraud in the US.

Just win OH, CO, and NV (or NH), and PA becomes unnecessary. Heck, I think MI or WI is more doable than PA.

23 posted on 09/17/2016 10:39:46 PM PDT by CatOwner
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: BigEdLB

Hahahaha...

This poll shows only 71% Rs voting for Trump. It appears to look heavy on Philly...someone can take a look.

It also shows Hell-ary has 41% male vote and Trump at 41%; 18% not sure. LoL.

And Hellary lead Indies by 9%, Hell 42% to Trump 33%.

Nationally, Indies support Trump around +21%.


24 posted on 09/17/2016 10:43:34 PM PDT by Red Steel
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: BigEdLB

ROFL!!!!!


25 posted on 09/17/2016 10:43:38 PM PDT by Voluntaryist
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: Dilbert San Diego

There is a simple answer to your question,...another faked poll....


26 posted on 09/17/2016 10:45:30 PM PDT by Trump_vs_Evil_Witch (Huma Abedin + Hillary Clinton => Muslim Brotherhood asset, lesbian spy ring)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: CaptainK
11% Independents? Is there any state with that small a percentage of independents?
27 posted on 09/17/2016 10:47:50 PM PDT by sargon (Anyone AWOL in the battle against Hillary is not a patriot. It's that simple.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Red Steel
Looking at the last page of that I'm not surprised. The population centers slant heavily for Hillary. The middle is heavy for Trump.

Overall, women are heavily for Hillary, the men are split exactly evenly. Whites are split exactly evenly, non whites are 68% to 17% for Hillary. It's about what I would expect and don't think it will change much.

It's the welfare class in Phila and Pittsburgh that will win the state for her. If there's anything that will get them off the sofa and semi sober for a few hours it's the fear of losing their vast array of “benefits”. While I don't expect Trump to throttle the benefits back, they have been trained for generations that Republican = no welfare and that's a threat to their entire lifestyle.

28 posted on 09/17/2016 10:48:07 PM PDT by Sunnyvale CA Eng.
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Trump_vs_Evil_Witch
There is a simple answer to your question,...another faked poll....

Doesn't matter. It will be reported as fact by the MSM, and those voters who don't follow this forum or any Democrat forum will believe it.

29 posted on 09/17/2016 10:48:45 PM PDT by CatOwner
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: july4thfreedomfoundation

“I have never heard of this particular poll.”

Owner list as S. Alinsky


30 posted on 09/17/2016 10:57:32 PM PDT by jessduntno (The mind of a liberal...deceit, desire for control, greed, contradiction and fueled by hate.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Sunnyvale CA Eng.

However, ultra-liberal Ipsos who polls for Roooters has PA close. It’s less than 3%.

“Poll Added: Ipsos in PA from 2016-09-09 to 2016-09-15 - Clinton 46.112% to Trump 43.81%”

https://twitter.com/ElecCollPolls/status/777307147667247104


31 posted on 09/17/2016 11:01:14 PM PDT by Red Steel
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: CaptainK

Another poll oversampling Democrats.

They must have polled Philly & Pittsburgh to obtain the spread.

Toss this one in the wastebasket.


32 posted on 09/17/2016 11:02:15 PM PDT by goldstategop ((In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Red Steel
OK, so Democrats oversampled at least 8% over Republicans, plus only 11% Independents, and only 405 people polled, which yields a whopping 5.5% margin of error.

That's a fishy poll, I don't care where you're from.

Anyway, then: if Hillary is at 47% with a +- 5.5% MOE, that means her support could range from 41.5% to 52.5%, and Trump at 39% could be between 33.5% and 44.5%, right?

Thus, Trump could theoretically be leading Hillary %44.5 to 41.5%, right?

I'm just trying to ascertain if I'm understanding such issues correctly. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.

These stats, of course, are not including other types of errors which also apply, namely things like "coverage" error and non-response error, for instance.

See: Polling Fundamentals for some of the information I was looking at when researching polling.

In any event, it's non-controversial to observe that a 5.5% MOE poll is pretty much garbage, and if I was Donald Trump I'd keep up the pressure in PA. I certainly wouldn't rely on this poll as a justification for not fighting for the state...

Vote Trump!

33 posted on 09/17/2016 11:02:54 PM PDT by sargon (Anyone AWOL in the battle against Hillary is not a patriot. It's that simple.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Red Steel

Trump has a good chance of winning PA.

I’d trust Reuters/Ipsos before I trust Morning Call/Muhlenberg.

Funny party ID math.


34 posted on 09/17/2016 11:03:28 PM PDT by goldstategop ((In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: Red Steel

Well that’s encouraging. I should have thought about the source more. I grew up in PA not too far from Muhlenberg College and read the Morning Call everyday as a kid. Muhlenberg was always looked at as a school for locals that either wanted to live at home or who were denied admission at their A and B choices. The Morning Call is your typical lefty rag.


35 posted on 09/17/2016 11:12:02 PM PDT by Sunnyvale CA Eng.
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: Sunnyvale CA Eng.

That explains it.

Hillary is NOT up by 47% in any reputable mainstream poll.

Her bottom line number is 42% max.

If she gets more than that, it will be a shock considering no one wants her.


36 posted on 09/17/2016 11:14:54 PM PDT by goldstategop ((In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

Fact: Trump will easily win: Texas, Florida, Ohio & Pennsylvania, etc.


37 posted on 09/17/2016 11:17:30 PM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX (Defeat both the Republican (e) & Democrat (e) political parties....Forever!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: Sunnyvale CA Eng.

There is no way whites split evenly among the Reps and Dems. Romney won the white vote 59 to 39. Reps have won the white vote for over 40 years.


38 posted on 09/17/2016 11:53:21 PM PDT by kabar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: Red Steel

On the basis of advertising I would say Illary is taking the Reuters’ poll seriously. We haven’t had much by way of Presidential commercials for several cycles, but this time they’re spending some money here. Illary is carpet bombing the Pirates’ games. Now that territory is West VA, Eastern Ohio, and PA from the Western Border to mid-state. If they’re spending that much money on a demographic that is older, whiter, and a lot more male, they must have some concerns.


39 posted on 09/18/2016 12:17:04 AM PDT by FredZarguna (And what Rough Beast, its hour come round at last, slouches toward Fifth Avenue to be born?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: CaptainK

That is an internationally known polling group


40 posted on 09/18/2016 12:24:09 AM PDT by stocksthatgoup (when the MSM wants your opinion, they will give it to you)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-68 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson