Posted on 09/28/2016 11:06:24 AM PDT by COUNTrecount
Frank Luntz utilizes an unusual apparatus to definitively evaluate who won a political debate: He takes a small sample of voters, hooks them up to an electronic device, turns on a TV, and carefully tabulates all the moments when they click “like” and “not like” while a politician speaks.
It’s a very visual, very TV-friendly presentation by Luntz, with demonstrative metrics, plenty of scientific-sounding soundbites, and all sorts of ready-made clips of the candidates saying and doing whatever Luntz deems their best and worst.
It’s also entirely meaningless.
If elections were decided like a prizefight and judged on a 10-point “must” system, then Luntz’s system would have merit. (For those who stopped watching boxing when Iron Mike Tyson became a cannibal, here’s a quick refresher: During a professional prizefight, three judges score who won each round, with the victor getting 10 points and the loser getting nine. If the fight doesn’t end by knockout, then the judges’ cards are tabulated after the final round, and the boxer with the most points is declared the victor.)
But that’s not how elections work.
Elections aren’t decided by adding-up a series of little things; they’re decided by our lasting, long-term impressions of each candidate – i.e. who they are, why they’re running, what they believe in, and what they care about.
They’re decided by big things.
Consider: We don’t cast ballots immediately after a TV debate. Instead, we turn-off the television and go to bed.
This is critically important when determining who “won” a presidential debate, and the reason why Luntz’s methodology is a useless evaluator of a candidate’s performance: It evaluates the wrong metrics.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Trump’s goal is to position his candidacy for victory in November. Nothing more, nothing less – and if you’re missing this distinction, then you’re analyzing the wrong metrics.
Trump’s genius is in branding. He’s probably the best branding expert in modern political history. He’s astonishingly good at it.
Jeb Bush is “low energy.” Donald Trump is a “winner.” Ted Cruz is “lyin’.” Hillary Clinton is “crooked.” Marco Rubio is “little” and a “choker.”
But yet he is still behind in most polls guys. I am just bringing everybody back to reality.
Yea, most polls are breaking against Trump...in newsrooms across USA
Yes - The Reuters poll today, which last had the race tied, has Clinton up by 6, altho it was pre-debate.
And unless you can provide a scintilla of evidence that those polls have any validity, I will ignore them.
We reject global warming, climate change and other left-wing voodoo but seemt accept every poll by anyone regardless of the fact that we have zero knowledge of their bona fides as gospel.
As far as I’m concerned they just make up numbers. And no, I don’t rejoice when the polls favor Trump either, I’m an equal opportunity poll distruster. They are just tools for rigging the system.
“But yet he is still behind in most polls guys.”
Hmmm not really. He’s got enough states on the EC map to win if the election were held today.
Vote Trump 2016
We need something positive. Clinton keeps inching up on 538. And it’s pissing me off.
What Lunz is doing is essentially meaningless.
Up and down and all around but on Nov. 8 the electoral college poll will be taken.
Who get 270 or better wins the presidency.
Well, Reuters CHANGED their methodology post debate to +6D from pre-debate +3.
I warned you guys they would do this. Several of you apparently are falling for it.
Go to statespoll.com for the SAME D/R M/F splits per poll that existed in 2012 (and even that is biased in favor of Ds because Cankles will NOT get out the vote like Obama did). You’ll find she is not leading anywhere.
But believe what you want.
Another rigged site. 538 INCLUDED a poll the other day they NEVER include AFTER “adjusting” it to give Cankles the lead.
FFS people, you’re bein’ played.
Right now Trump has the EC by my count, probably 272. I think he’s very, very close to 295 or so.
538 is an analytical model based on polls. Garbage in, garbage out. See my thoughts on polls above.
Let not your heart be troubled. Or if you have to worry, be concerned about rigging the election not these polls which are intended to influence public opinion and may not have any validity.
Well I’ll tell you what is more positive than anything else.
The Lord.
Don’t let the powers of hell hypnotize you to the point you won’t call on God for His good will to prevail.
Will people favor the polish or will people favor the sincerity? It depends on what voice is listened to.
Brilliant, now I don’t have to keep typing this every time ;-)
No it does not. Last Reuters poll on Friday was Clinton 41 Trump 37
Today’s is Clinton 42 Trump 38.
I hate the ways fraudulent information gets spun out and everyone just starts repeating it without actually looking at the data. Reuters also has a 44 D/33 R weighting sample in today’s poll.
Correct. Noticed this many months ago. Trump is playing the election like he was dealt a great drawing hand with lots of outs. Hillary’s aces will get cracked most likely. Every terrorist attack accrues to Trump because The Red Queen is locked into accepting Muslim refugees. And that’s just one issue.
-PJ
All the leading politicians in history recognize people make decisions with their gut, not with their head.
People go with someone who reflects their feelings best.
Doesn’t matter that Hillary is a policy wonk leading in the polls.
She can’t feel what we feel. And that’s why in reality, she will lose.
LOL, no anklebiter, he's ahead. Way, way, WAY ahead.
That's reality.
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