Posted on 10/02/2016 9:58:10 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Most of the time, Trump would be the beneficiary of a Clinton loss in New Mexico. But the model also assigns Johnson, the Libertarian Party’s presidential nominee, an outside chance — 2 or 3 percent — of winning the state. That could lead to an Electoral College deadlock that looks like this:
... Clinton has 267 electoral votes, Trump has 266, and Johnson has New Mexico’s five. With no candidate possessing an Electoral College majority, the election would go to the House of Representatives, with Clinton, Trump and Johnson all eligible to receive votes.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
I emailed Nate and said that was wrong. It should be 35-31, Clinton the leader at +4, Adjusted then at +2.
They updated their website with 35-31, Clinton the leader at +4, but KEPT adjusted at +4: (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/)
They play games with the "adjusted" number all the time.
Johnson won’t win NM. Even if he does, Trump can win without it, it’s not really even on the Trump radar.
It looks far more likely Johnson will hand NM to Trump.
Silver doesn’t mention it because it makes a mess of his 64.3% probability of Hillary getting to the White House.
And he’s lying because if that was true, prospects of the election being thrown to the House Of Representatives are nil.
Last time that happened was in 1824.
Jeezy—Talk about trying to sell newspapers.
Sad part, if this did happen many GOPe-ers in the House would cross party lines and vote for Hilliary
And monkeys could fly outta my butt........
Ignore all media
Get Out The Vote
i have no inside information but it seems extremely unlikely any state would vote for a (crazy left wing) third-party ‘throw away your vote’ candidate like him
but as long as he’s in the race he draws mostly leftwing or D voters away from HilLIARy (including the doper babies)
so that’s good, imho
Stuff like this damages Silver’s credibility.
I agree. Johnson gives the NeverTrumps someone to vote for besides Hillary. I doubt he is taking any votes from Trump.
Yes. To hell with Big Media. To hell with the polls, whatever they say.
We need every vote we can get for Trump.
Trump ==> we have a fighting chance.
Hillary ==> we're screwed.
Get Out The Vote.
Trump was winning New Mexico 2 weeks ago:
http://redstatewatcher.com/article.asp?id=38289
43% Trump
38% Clinton
Johnson isn’t going to win it and will be fortunate to get 20% and I think his range is actually 10-15%
Yeah and if I start defecating gold tomorrow, I’ll be a billionaire next year. Both are of equal likelihood.
“Sad part, if this did happen many GOPe-ers in the House would cross party lines and vote for Hillary”
How about this. Johnson wins NM. Race thrown to House of Reps.
The GOP gets 10 electors to vote for Paul Ryan instead of Trump. The House has to decide between Hillary, Trump or Ryan.
Or this.
The Dems. find out about the Ryan gambit and do one of their own. They get 100 of Hillary’s electors to vote for Joe Manchin instead of Hillary. Now the House has to choose between Hillary, Trump or Manchin.
What a circus it could be.
Two interesting things.
Thing One: What did you spot to make you suggest a correction?
Thing Two: Hard to believe they’d adjust based on the correction of a Deplorable.
Thing Three: (Always a Thing Three) Kudos to you.
And remember too, that if an election went to the House of Representatives, each state gets one vote. The members of the House don’t vote as individuals, they vote as part of their state delegation, and the state gets one vote.
It would take 26 states out of 50 states to choose the president if this were to happen.
If the Republicans control at least 26 House delegations as a result of the November elections, that should ensure a GOP victory in the unlikely event of the House having to choose the president. But who knows what would really happen.
The point is that Clinton may not be able to win if she even loses in New Mexico. I think she would loses a one on one race with Johnson.
Maybe, I just don’t see a Johnson NM win giving the race to the House.
And if the Dallas Cowboys can score 45 points a game they will win the Super Bowl.
But, Natey, I thought Cankles was a 73% lock to win?
Nate Silver comes up with some oddball stuff. ross perot is not going to win NM.
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