Posted on 10/07/2016 10:20:29 AM PDT by ProudFossil
Will somebody please explain to me how this can be? Trump draws tens of thousands to an event, Clinton draws a couple of hundred. The polls show Clinton ahead of Trump by 5 to 15 points. My wife and I argue about this all the time watching the news. I would think that Trump would be 20 points ahead, she says no. Her reason is people that go to the events do not answer the polls.
Thank you.
Trump supports maybe don’t answer pols but like myself when they do they give replies that make no sense. The dumb ploster is being paid to tap keys and could care less.
Just my Opin
The people who will vote for Hillary are not interested in hearing her speak. If she was replaced tomorrow with a wooden dummy, they would dutifully show up and vote for Democrat Wooden Dummy.
They don’t care, as long as they get their money.
The polls are done by telephone. Recently it was published that poll takers have to make 50,000 calls to get 1000 live responses. (How often do YOU answer an unidentified phone call?) When you factor in all of the people who no longer have a land line, and all of the people who use Caller ID to screen calls, you are left with a very small pool of voters who answer the poll taker questions. At least that’s my husband’s argument.
No it’s not!
The vast majority of Americans have never attended a political rally, but they still vote.
To some degree she is correct. I don’t answer unknown calls unless I’m expecting a call and
I don’t know the number. They can leave a message and I may or may not return the call.
But Trump as such has aroused a lot of people that otherwise may have been silent.
Remember the ‘silent majority’ idea. What I’d like Trump to do is to get in an unmarked
vehicle’and travel thru some of the smaller towns where he is at and stop and talk to a few
people. It would be interesting to see if that materialize into a bunch of people showing up.
Too many viable competing theories.
There’s only one poll that matters, and until then we have to get the “vote Trump” message out.
Neither piece of reasoning (yours and hers) makes much sense to me.
...tell her polls are a method in which rats “ over sample” to get the results they wish. Point out to her, if polls meant anything, how did Trump become our candidate while all the early polls said no chance
It’s been speculated that Trump has tapped into the so-called “Monster Vote,” people who have not voted in the past, which is why they don’t show up in polling. He needs to be stressing voter registration at his rallies, pounding the point home that if they’re not registered, they can’t vote and he must have their votes to win.
Many of the libs I know are yellow dogs. That is, they are going to vote ‘D’ and that is that. This being the case, they don’t have to engage in politics. There is no need to discuss, to learn, to go to a single rally. They just go about their lives and when the 1st Tuesday in November rolls around they go to the polls and push all the ‘D’ buttons.. Just like their mommies and daddies.
As to the enthusiasm at the rallies: those are big crowds, but there may be bigger crowds sitting at home, living off the government dole who are voting for Hillary to keep their bennies. The crowds could be like a cult. A cult is often small, but more enthusiastic than mainstream groups.
The only way you will win the argument is if Trump wins.
I’d lie to them anyway, and tell them I’d vote for Hillary.
Just the facts...
Discount any poll showing Hil ahead by double digits.
Concerning rally attendance vs polling - it IS the case that you cannot extrapolate from one indicator to confirm or deny the other indicator.
SOME rally goers might answer polls. Many would not. We can’t know that ALL of them won’t. We can’t know the percentages. But it’s a pretty good generalization.
You CAN tell that Trump folks are enthusiastic enough to
rally, whereas Hil people will pull the lever for her just because she is a Dem and they hate/fear Trump, NOT because they are enthusiastic about her, they’re not.
Those are basic facts/truths in the situation you are discussing.
What is your point when you are “arguing”. What are you claiming - that your wife disagrees with. Are you claiming you can prove Trump is a likely winner because of his crowds, and she disagrees?
What I’ve posted here should help clarify things.
Heck, if we trace the concept back to the first couple, it was Eve who felt that Adam was wrong to not want a bite of that fruit.
He wasn't, but it didn't matter...
...his mate was a woman. The End.
8^)
Ask her to prove those who go to rallies don’t vote in polls and those who don’t do vote in polls.
In OH, there are FINALLY some TV ads to counter the hillary deluge, but they're few and far between. It's hypnosis....voters hear those hateful ads over and over and over again with nothing to break the spell. It's their subconscious that's being convinced that hillary is all things good and Trump is just the opposite.
What is needed is an onslaught of ads with harpy hillary in her own voice saying really terrible things. It's the only way to break the spell. Besides that, nobody will want to listen to that crone for four years!
Just my two cents worth.
PS. The best idea is to let the wife win this discussion
as it matters not which is correct.
In a typical election only about half of the electorate vote. If a party can increase their typical turnout by 10% that could determine the outcome. If you know of anybody who might usually sit out the election, point out to them the power they have to swing the election.
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