Posted on 10/14/2016 5:29:07 AM PDT by NYC-RepublicanCT
Folks - with less than 4 weeks out, and the onslaught of polls expected from here on out, thought it might be a good idea to have a central spot where we can discuss polls as they come out... Dissect them, discuss internals, find reasons for realistic optimism...
If you choose to discount all polls, that's your prerogative, but can we please have this as a place for those who want to discuss polls of the day?
I heard Rush mention that on his radio show yesterday....
he said four or five days before the election, the pollsters will have to worry about their reputations and they will show accurate polls.
Rush even said the pollsters may suddenly start discussing a “late surge” for Trump.
PA poll.
- - -
“Bill Mitchell @mitchellvii 3m3 minutes ago
Bloomberg poll of suburban counties used this sample:
Democrats - 45%
Republicans - 28%
I’m not kidding.”
https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/786704341004591104
- - - - - -
LoL. These media propagandists will skew them all the way to Nov 8th,
Wow. How disgraceful
the 24/7 mainstream news and late night tv have trashed Trump at every possible moment.
YET, he maintains a lead and/or is tied with this despicable person.
Can you imagine Jebbie, Cruz or Rubio withstanding the attacks?
Trump is where he is right now because of who he is.
The only one of the original 17 that could have gotten this far, and TIED on 10-14, not 50 points behind!
Trump or a Super PAC should run ads in battleground states, showing how these polls are being manipulated! They could run ads targeted to the specific states, so for PA, run an ad that targets, and explains, this ridiculous poll!
In Colorado, Trump ran devastating TV ads on Hillary during the Thursday night Denver Broncos game. No doubt Trump picked a super time when Colorado was watching TV.
This is like 1980 when Reagan was always losing in the polls until the voter put him in by a landslide. I don’t think poor “Jimmah” even saw it coming.
Gallup says 28% of Americans are satisfied with how things are in the USA at present.
So....they will choose the Third Term of Obama WHY, exactly?
yeah come on man they have Texas in play with Trump up 4. insanity
After being down 3 in the PPD daily tracking poll, Trump regains a slight lead!
I’m interested thank you for posting.
“I wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprised if the Trump “BS Bimbo eruption” becomes their Wellstone moment, where they overplay their hand and America sees the media as the political whores they are..”
That is a good possibility.
We are 1 coughing spell or seizure away. She is so ill. This isn’t why she will cancel the debate Wednesday. She will cancel because she was horrible in the last debate and Trump wiped that $hit eating grin right off her face. She has no answer for her crimes and lying . She has zero policies relevant to the people. She just speaks wonkie socialist buzz words to appeal to the parasites and government dependent ( they would vote for a yellow dog to get their stuff). I don’t see any support for her manifested anywhere. No crowds , no yard signs , no nothing. It is like she has withdrawn for the contest? Where is she? Is she sick? What is she doing? I understand people who are jealous of Trump or want to be prejudice against him to save their party and donor paychecks but are they going to vote for criminal hillary— the greatest liar in American political history? I think not. 24% Black vote is huge. It tells me America is coming together. We must fight voter fraud but we should win easy. Nobody likes hillary rodham clinton, She is a criminal liar. And she is very ill.
Trump took the lead in PPD today by nearly 1%.....will almost certainly go higher as last weekend rolls off.
Trend is your friend. Trump won NH and Bernie beat Hillary 60.4 to 38. I forgot about the trouncing Hillary got in NH. NYT results Here. If a lot of the Bernie people and Indies plus last minute 3rd party switchers go for Trump, he could win it.
If NH goes early for Trump on November 8, it may be an omen that Trump will win plus an example for states still voting.
New Hampshire, Get Out the Vote! Live Free or Die!
Pat Caddell gave Carter the results of the final poll late on the night before the election, as Jimmy was traveling back east from a rally in Seattle. Caddell had it tied Saturday, Reagan +5 Sunday night, and Reagan +10 Monday night. Jimmy thought he would win until that phone call. He then sat alone on the plane and cried.
Source: Craig Shirley, Rendezvous with Destiny (best book about a campaign I have ever read).
Data point of note.
The D/R/I mix OF REGISTRATION per Gallup polling just before the 2012 election had a D+9 edge.
Be aware that some states do not register with party affiliation so there is no easy arithmetic of adding it all up. It has to be sampled, and that was Gallup’s sample that year.
Pew has sampled this year, January to August, and they quote a D+4.
Some of the pollsters doing D+9 may not be cheating. They are just using the 2012 registration ratio, and may not have seen Pew’s update.
As I understand it, Rasmussen does a continual measurement of self identified party affiliation and that’s what they screen for in their daily update. That has yielded Trump +2.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.