Ron Johnson, the Republican Senator, was written off early during the race, but is now only a few points behind.
Roughly, taking the polls at face value, Trump is down 7 in Wisconsin, with that many votes going to Gary Johnson. In theory, Ron Johnson can win by COMBINING the anti-socialist vote. In reality, Trump has to bounce back in this state, to at least make it close.
I think Trump can win Wisconsin. First, I don’t trust the polls and, second, taking the polls at face value, this race has been back and forth several times this year.
If Trump does well in the next debate, this race will turn very competitive. The media is already hinting that the polls will tighten up.
Obviously, we absolutely have to win AZ, GA, NC, OH and FL; and, it looks like we have IA in the bag. We’re close or ahead in the polls in every one of these states, and there’s other evidence that is favorable (e.g., early voting). Assuming we win these states, I put WI as option #3, with option #1 being PA, and #2 being CO plus ME-2, and #4 being NV + NH.
Voter registration is now closed in NC and PA, so if you live in NC or PA and aren’t registered, quick move to: Maine-2nd Congressional District (Oct. 18), Nevada (Oct. 18), Wisconsin (Oct. 19), New Hampshire (Oct. 29), or Colorado (Oct. 31) and register.
Analyze your local polls.
What you need to know is the Democrat, Republican and Independent registration in your state. That is publicly available information.
Then you need to find the polls data and see if it lines up with the state registration.
Most polls have been heavily over-sampling Democrats.
Adjust as needed... :-)