Posted on 10/19/2016 5:25:27 PM PDT by 11th_VA
Republican Larry Hogan got some good news Friday when the Cook Political Report labeled his gubernatorial race against Democrat Anthony Brown as a toss-up.
But polling aggregation site FiveThirtyEight is throwing cold water on Hogan's hopes that today's vote will be tight. In its final forecast for gubernatorial races, FiveThirtyEight projects Brown has a 94 percent chance of defeating Hogan.
Based on polling averages, Brown is leading Hogan by 9.8 percent — a number that has increased by 0.1 percent since Monday, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Nonetheless, Hogan has been projecting confidence as the campaign winds down, promoting a pro-business agenda. Brown, meanwhile, got a late boost in Baltimore from a visit by First Lady Michelle Obama.
FiveThirtyEight is predicting close finishes in 10 gubernatorial contests: Maine, Colorado, Florida, Connecticut, Alaska, Illinois, Wisconsin, Rhode Island, Michigan and Kansas.
There’s no need to insult those that don’t take an optimistic view of the state of the race.
I remember telling people Hogan would win. Although Brown led most of the way, I was watching the trend line. We caught him right at the end, but the trend had been moving that way for a while.
BTW, Brown is now running for Congress to fill the seat of REp. Donna Edwards, who lost the Democrat primary for SEnator. His signs look exactly the same.
and we have a chance at adding the New Hampshire and West Virginia governorships to the Republican column this year.
These percentages that Nate Silver comes up with, remind of the Star Trek episode where Kirk and Spock are on a planet battling an adversary, and Spock keeps updating his and Kirk’s survival probability — “Right now we have a 31.765% chance of surviving,” etc.
“These percentages that Nate Silver comes up with”
Part of his business model. He puts out these feel good predictions and democrats keep coming back driving traffic to his website.
MD ping
Yup - its silly - put up even a *moderate* comment and like 200 people yell at you at once - it’s funny. He (Nate) must still be bitter about Ds losing badly in 2014.
Florida was very close in 2014. I was in the war room for Rick Scott down in Bonita Springs, and he ended up winning over Charlie Crist by ~64K votes out of 5.6M cast. Too close for comfort in my book, but it is worth pointing out that RCP had Crist up by .6% in their last iteration. Scott, a good Governor who is an awkward candidate, won by a margin of 1.1%.
This year, Crist is running for Congress in a district that covers my home. Here’s hoping he gets beat, by a micron or by a mile.
Those of us watching the trend line expect Trump to win.
Even though Nate Silver has called the election for Hillary.
According to idiot Silver Trump has a 25% chance of winning.
Even though even MSM polls are beginning to show the race as tied.
He doesn’t know what he’s talking about and uses statistics to lie.
Yup - they have Clinton up but that doesn’t really show what’s going on.
If you like her ultra-liberal policies, by all means vote for her!
Our cuckservative NeverTrumper opponents who ignore this, understand nothing.
Poor Larry Hogan was tagged a loser.
He was surprised he won. And Silver was surprised.
The media doesn’t decide elections - people do.
That’s the great thing about America.
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