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This poll would have been released about 28 days prior to the election. Only one I have found so far.

According to the chart at bottom Pew finished in the middle of the pack accuracy wise.

Pew Research Center.

“The survey of likely voters conducted between October 4 and October 7 showed Romney taking a 4 percentage edge over Obama – a clear sign of the bounce he received from his strong debate performance last week.” (Romney lost by 3.85%, so this poll a month out was off by almost 8%, BUT they finished high in the accuracy chart I previously posted)

Here’s the full list (polls with an asterisk were more favorable to Obama, and polls without were more favorable to Romney):

1. PPP (D)*
1. Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP*
3. YouGov*
4. Ipsos/Reuters*
5. Purple Strategies
6. NBC/WSJ
6. CBS/NYT
6. YouGov/Economist
9. UPI/CVOTER
10. IBD/TIPP
11. Angus-Reid*
12. ABC/WP*
13. Pew Research*
13. Hartford Courant/UConn*
15. CNN/ORC
15. Monmouth/SurveyUSA
15. Politico/GWU/Battleground
15. FOX News
15. Washington Times/JZ Analytics
15. Newsmax/JZ Analytics
15. American Research Group
15. Gravis Marketing
23. Democracy Corps (D)*
24. Rasmussen
24. Gallup
26. NPR
27. National Journal*
28. AP/GfK

This IBD/Tipp poll from mid-October 2012 had Obama 1 point ahead of Romney. Compared to the final election results, the 5% undecided at this time broke heavily for Obama 4-to-1.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ibd-tipp-15832

Right now, IBD/Tipp is 42-40 Trump, with 5% undecided. With a LOT more going 3rd party this year.

I guess the question to ponder is why the 2012 undecided went so heavily to Obama and how can Trump get them instead? Normally I'd expect the undecided to be the most ignorant voters and perhaps to be easily swayed by the media, but this year they might actually be informed and just genuinely confused and torn. GOP-leaners because of Trump's unusual nature as a candidate and DEM-leaners because of Hillary's untrustworthiness.

This year the 3rd party question is really a new one. We have almost 11% voting 3rd party vs. roughly 2% in the 2012 poll! I think that might be the most underreported story in this election. Can a candidate sway those people not to "waste their vote?" Are these 3rd party voters just throwing a tantrum before they agree to do what "mommy and daddy" say or are they unpersuadable?