[right-wingin_It]

OK, in English, for those of us mathematically challenged. Thank you.

See #19.

Right now there are 1.6M votes in, of which about 300,000 are "Early In-Person" votes that have been cast. That is the point in 2012 I am comparing to as well - when 300,000 Early In-person votes were cast, which fell on October 27, 2012 (that is also when 1.6M total people also voted). And it turns out that Republicans and "Other" have a greater share of the Early In-Person vote this time around than they did in 2012, whereas for the Dems it is actually worse. So I calculated the percentages for each so we can see "by how much." And so if this holds, Dems will be severely damaged on the final tally because they rely on Early In-Person vote much more heavily than Republicans do.

[bigredkitty1]

Thank you for the breakdown. At the end of a long day, even 2+2 is hard for me.

[convoter2016]

2012 Florida elections: (Assuming all Republicans vote for Romney and all Democrats vote for Obama)

Early In-Person Voting

Obama: 145470/298637 = 48.7%
Romney: 105,948/298637 = 35.5%

48.7% - 35.5% = 13.2%

So on October 27, 2012, it was D+13 in Florida early in-person voting

The final 2012 Florida vote was D+1 (50.2% - 49.3% = 0.9%)

2016 Florida elections:

Early In-Person Voting: (Assuming all Republicans vote for Trump and all Democrats vote for Clinton)

Clinton: 133041/291449 = 45.6%
Trump: 109034/291449 = 37.4%

So on October 25, 2016, it was D+8 in Florida early in-person voting

If my analysis turns out to be true (I’m not counting the Independent registrations), then it is possible that the final 2016 Florida vote will be R+4 (12 point swing in favor of the Republicans from the early in-person vote when approximately 290,000 early in-person votes have been cast to the final Florida results).