Posted on 11/29/2016 12:15:50 PM PST by markomalley
An election expert projects more than 800,000 noncitizens voted in the 2016 election and overwhelmingly for Democrat Hillary Clinton.
While substantial, that number doesn’t overcome Clinton’s 2.2 million popular vote lead over Republican President-elect Donald Trump, who won a decisive Electoral College triumph of 306 to 232.
On Sunday, the president-elect tweeted he would have won the popular vote had it not been for illegal votes cast. The Trump transition team on Monday cited nonpartisan studies on noncitizens voting and of faulty voter registration across the country. Only citizens 18 or older can legally vote.
In addition to winning the Electoral College in a landslide, I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 27, 2016
“Extrapolating on data from several years ago certainly doesn’t substantiate the claim that Trump is making now,” Jesse Richman, an associate professor of political science at Old Dominion University, told The Daily Signal. “That could change. If there is a recount in Michigan and Trump loses by a few votes, then it’s very plausible that noncitizen voting made a big difference. Hopefully, it doesn’t come to that.”
Richman was the co-author of a 2014 study that looked at noncitizen voting in the 2008 and 2010 elections. In the comparable presidential election year, the Old Dominion study determined 6.4 percent of noncitizens in the United States voted in the 2008 presidential election, and about 81 percent of those voters backed Democrat Barack Obama.
Richman applied those numbers to 2016:
The basic assumptions on which the extrapolation is based are that 6.4 percent of noncitizens voted, and that of the noncitizens who voted, 81.8 percent voted for Clinton and 17.5 percent voted for Trump. … 6.4 percent turnout among the roughly 20.3 million noncitizen adults in the U.S. would add only 834,318 votes to Clinton’s popular vote margin. This is little more than a third of the total margin. … Is it plausible that noncitizen votes added to Clinton’s margin? Yes. Is it plausible that noncitizen votes account for the entire nationwide popular vote margin held by Clinton? Not at all.
A December 2015 study led by Stephen Ansolabehere of Harvard University argued the 2014 Old Dominion study was flawed and that “the likely percent of noncitizen voters in recent U.S. elections is zero.” Richman responded to the criticism and said suggesting zero percent does not hold up.
Trump transition team spokesman Jason Miller cited the Old Dominion study reported on in The Washington Post in 2014, as well as a Pew Research Center study from 2012 about problems with voter registration across the country.
“An issues of concern is that so many have voted that are not legally supposed to,” Miller told reporters in a conference call Monday.
He said this warrants more attention than the “shiny object” Jill Stein and the Green Party are using to push recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania that have no chance of overturning the election.
Beyond the noncitizens voting study from Old Dominion, Miller pointed to the Pew study from 2012 that found 24 million voter registration records in the United States, or about 1 in 8, were “significantly inaccurate or no longer valid.”
The Pew study further found “1.8 million deceased individuals are listed as voters,” that “12 million records contain an incorrect address,” and that “2.75 million people have registrations in more than one state.”
It would take a very high percentage of noncitizens voting to overcome the Clinton popular vote lead, said Steven Camarota, director of research for the Center for Immigration Studies, a think tank that favors strong immigration enforcement.
“If 10 percent of noncitizens voted, it would likely make a popular vote difference,” Camarota told The Daily Signal. “It’s not the Electoral College he’s upset about. It’s the popular vote. I wish he wouldn’t focus on it. Bill Clinton got just 43 percent of the vote in 1992. How many states did he win more than 50 percent of the vote in?”
Trump could be correct about the number of illegal votes, but there is no way to know, said Hans von Spakovsky, senior legal fellow with The Heritage Foundation who focuses on voter integrity issues.
“It’s possible he’s right, but we don’t know because there is no way to quantify, no system in place to identify noncitizens voting,” Spakovsky told The Daily Signal. “The Department of Justice and Department of Homeland Security should obtain state voter registration lists and check against noncitizen database. And the DOJ should start prosecuting noncitizens who are voting.”
Prosecuting voter fraud will have to be a higher priority under the Trump administration than under the Obama administration, said Tom Fitton, president of Judicial Watch, a conservative government watchdog.
“It has got to be a priority I would think based on Mr. Trump’s rhetoric,” Fitton told The Daily Signal. “At least, make sure that only citizens are registered to vote. We need basic reforms to reassure people that elections are free and fair.”
AND..... if we used logic, reason and experience. FOR WHOM MIGHT THEY HAVE VOTED. Curious minds are asking.
Note that he did not say "Non citizens", he said people who VOTED ILLEGALLY.
This includes dead people voting, people who voted more than once, illegal aliens voting, legal aliens voting, and ballot box stuffing.
He could very well be right on the "millions" estimate.
Add that to the 2 or 3 million in California alone, and it adds up fast
I'm inclined to go with 800,000 in California alone, 2-3 million nation-wide.
We are expected to believe that in 2016 many California districts had a 70-80% turnout - for Hillary Clinton?
http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/status/
when the average turnout rate for obama in 2012 was 55%?
http://www.electproject.org/2012g
Just think...if dead people are voting, how many of them are still collecting Social Security?
Those are not apples to apples comparisons - the first is % of registered voters. The second is % of voting eligible adults, regardless of registration status.
That said, the # of presidential votes went up in 2016 by 6.5% vs 2012 while the population growth was up around 4.0% (including illegals).
Well the dead people, felon vote, and multiple voters, and the write-in votes by the automobile trunk-load should make up the difference.
Obama urged them to do it, saying there would be no repercussions.
Isn’t that some sort of violation of his oath of office?
He swore to uphold the U.S. Constitution.
Prosecute the bastard.
“should start prosecuting noncitizens who are voting”
Good luck with that. The problem is with states like CA where illegals can vote on local issues. When they register, their registration is based on residency only.
When they vote, they get the same ballot as everyone else, not just a ballot with local-only stuff (no such ballot under CA election code).
And, with no name or id number on the ballot, there’s no telling if someone who checked the prez box was doing so legally.
In other states, like MD, I don’t think the state itself allows this, but it DOES allow incorporated areas to allow illegals to vote if they are residents.
Unfortunately, the registration process has the same result when it comes time for fed election.
Would like to see the non citizens off the books and also the people who are voting in 2 different state’s. I thought Biden making a so called mistake when he Was in Virginia speaking and calling it NC was a signal for people to vote illegally in both places.
California & New York state are the sole outliers with their vote totals poisoned by 3-5million illegal voters of one stripe or another. What the heck do you think Democrats were bragging about, so much before the POTUS election , that Clinton would win in a landslide!!! These two states are so differnet from the normal political split in the other 48 states,,,it tells you that millions of illegalls were allowed to vote, encouraged and supported by the Democrat Party!!! Wake up America!!!
And how many times did these 800,000 noncitizens vote?
“The basic assumptions on which the extrapolation is based are that 6.4 percent of noncitizens voted, and that of the noncitizens who voted, 81.8 percent voted for Clinton and 17.5 percent voted for Trump. … 6.4 percent turnout among the roughly 20.3 million noncitizen adults in the U.S. would add only 834,318 votes to Clinton’s popular vote margin.”
1) We ALL know the effect when we ASS U ME something.
2) Who says that only 6.4% of non-citizens voted? This election was, more than any other single issue, about immigration - legal and illegal. The Dems pulled out all the stops to get immigrants to vote...so I don’t think that 6.4% is an accurate figure, it is probably too low.
3) Who says that there are only 20.3 million noncitizen adults in the U.S.? This website http://kff.org/other/state-indicator/distribution-by-citizenship-status/?dataView=1¤tTimeframe=0&selectedDistributions=non-citizen—total says that there are almost 23 million as of the end of 2015. Further, I have serious questions about the number of illegals in this country. It has been pegged at 11 million or so for many, many years - and yet there are reports of another 2 million illegals coming in each year. Well, I submit that there are probably more like 20 - 30 million illegals, plus the legal ones. You are more likely looking at about 30 million non-citizen adults.
4) Who said that 17.5% voted for Trump? That seems outrageously high, given the issues in this campaign and the incredible over-hyping of the immigration issue by the Dems. A “normal” Republican might get 15% - 20% of immigrants, but Trump would have been lucky to get 12%, with Hillary getting 87.5%.
Let’s use 8% of 30 million non-citizen adults voting 87.5% for Hillary and 12% for Trump. That, by itself (i.e. without dead voters and multiple voters, and the rest of the usual fraud by the Dems) would result in 1,812,000 extra votes for Hillary. Frankly, I consider that to be conservative - I believe there to be nearly 40 million adult non-citizens, and that at least 10% of them voted. However, my point is that anyone can play with numbers, especially since NO ONE KNOWS how many illegals there are, how many non-citizens vote, and who they voted for in this particular election.
Only 800k????
If they are caught, deport and permanently bar them from future U.S. residency, green cards and citizenship. They have proved themselves willing to overthrow the U.S. government.
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