The bad economics of Trump's Carrier deal

The Week ^ | 12/01/2016 | James Pethokoukis

[semimojo]

There’s a lot that “the state” (notably including the Fedguv, so let’s not exclude the elephant in the room from our view by means of quibbles)

No, I was careful to use that term because the tax concessions are all coming from Indiana.

The promised changes at the Federal level are nice, but no sophisticated execs, like those at UT, would put much stock in that until they hear specifics from the Congress too.

[zeestephen]

Re: “2% is anemic, historically...”

Not sure I understand your point.

The number of manufacturing employees went down for two years.

But the value of the goods they produced went up 2%.

We are currently producing as much as we produced in Q1 2008, just as the Great Recession began.

However, we are producing it with 1.5 million fewer workers!

My point is completely valid.

Technology is destroying wages and employment in USA manufacturing much faster than trade treaties and foreign competition.

[elhombrelibre]

Do you think this process only happened in the last election? The Republican Party has been growing at all levels across the nation since Obama was elected. You can ascribe this to your beliefs about free trade if it makes you happy, but the fact is that rise has much to do with an entire rejection of the liberal agenda. You can champion Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act as the model for making America Great Again all you want, but free trade (for or against) has had little to do with the rise of the Republican Party. Credit for that turn around belongs to the current president of the United States.

[Elsie]

Technology is destroying wages and employment in USA manufacturing much faster than trade treaties and foreign competition.

HAs anyone dialed "0" for the operator lately?

[Elsie]

http://govthub.com/unemployment-benefits.aspx?utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_term=unemployment&utm_campaign=GH+Jobs+Unemployment+Benefits+Year

 

https://www.amazon.com/Making-Living-Without-Job-revised/dp/0553386603

 

http://madamenoire.com/461876/welfare/

 

 

[central_va]

It is ridiculous to keep perpetuating Smoot Hawley as some kind of tariff boogie man. Smoot Hawley had a minimal impact on the US Great Depression and the FACT bear that out. But that won't keep religious zaealot from repeating theor BS dogma.

To put this in perspective, let's compare all the GDP components together:

1929 ------------------->1930

GDP $103.6 billion----------->$56.4 billion ( -$47.2 billion)

Consum. Expend $77.4 bil---->$45.9 billion ( -$31.5 bill)

Private Invest $16.5 bil----> $1.7 billion ( -$14.8 billion)

Trade Balance +$0.3 bil---->+$0.1 billion ( -$0.2 billion)

Exports $5.9 billion--------> $2.0 billion ( -$3.9 billion)

Imports $5.6 billion--------> $1.9 billion ( -$3.7 billion)

Again, at the risk of being repetitious, how much difference to US GDP did the export loss make? The Trade Balance worsened by only -$0.2 billion, or about -0.19% of our 1929 GDP, or less than 1/5th of 1% of 1929 GDP. Meanwhile, our total GDP wnt down a whopping -46%.

[bert]

I want to jump in here and ask you...... is Carrier paying 35% tariff on any thing being imported from Mexico?

Some how the notion of tariff appears to have been sidetracked by men that know business actually doing business. Too bad for the Etrogs

[central_va]

washington was a farmer and not relevant to current world trade

Oh so now Free Traitors™ count George Washington's actions as irrelevant because he was an agrarian. You schmucks have no bottom do you?

Listen if you had a brain you'd know that what you said is counter intuitive. Agrarians HATE tariffs but George did what was best for the country unlike today's Free Traitors™ fiends. What maroon you are.

[elhombrelibre]

As a high tariff advocate, how high do you want this to be in percentage? Do you want it on everything coming in to the USA or just somethings?

[central_va]

If it were up to me I would want an across the board import tariff. I would increase it from its current <1% an amount of 3% per year. I would increase it 3% per year until 25% is reached or the trade deficit goes to zero. Which ever comes first. I would also decrease to marginal income tax rates 3% per year until 20% is reached.

I want more tariffs and domestic industry and less income taxes. That formula combined with immigration enforcement and regulation reform would put the USA's economy on rocket fuel.

[elhombrelibre]

And do you believe that those nations where our goods are sold at would not retaliate? Or does it not matter if they do? Do you think America should just trade with Americans, maybe follow the North Korean model?

[central_va]

Other countries are already retaliating. We pay import tariffs to other countries on a daily basis. But I've explained that to you before. It think the import tariff on US made cars to China is 40%. That is just one example.

We.Are.In.A.Trade.War.Now.

And we are losing.

[Thibodeaux]

reactionaries just can’t seem to grasp the simple fact that it is not 1789, but 2016

[central_va]

reactionaries just can’t seem to grasp the simple fact that it is not 1789, but 2016

Tell that to the Adam Smith Cult.