You can't know that. It is far more likely that threat would have been met by threat and war broken out before Lincoln was inaugurated rather than after.
“You can’t know that. It is far more likely that threat would have been met by threat and war broken out before Lincoln was inaugurated rather than after.”
That is why I said likely, no one can know for certain.
What we do know was that President Buchanan and his administration worked with the secessionists and helped the secession.
Had there been a strong president from 1857 until 1861 who was dedicated to preserving the union and who threatened to use force against the secessionists, the Civil War might have been avoided. The lives of over 500,000 men would have been saved and the enormous cost and human suffering might have been prevented.